The reliable in-state Magellan Strategies polling firm today released the results of last week's voter interviews on Colorado statewide races. Taking the pulse of 954 likely voters, they found not surprisingly that John Hickenlooper has a wide lead over Republican Dan Maes (and an even wider lead over third-party Tom Tancredo) -- though some small amount of Hick's support may have been eroded in the intervening few days before the latest Rasmussen poll was taken. But I'm more interested in bringing attention to the down-ticket races, which Magellan features in its top line results, as follows: Republican Attorney General John Suthers holds a commanding 47-32 lead over Democratic challenger Stan Garnett Democratic State Treasurer Cary … [Read more...]
Ryan Frazier 40, Ed Perlmutter 39: Liberal CD-7 Incumbent Feels the Heat
National Review Online's Michael Sandoval breaks more news this afternoon by bringing our attention to a new Magellan Strategies poll of my own 7th Congressional District. Bottom line: Republican Ryan Frazier edges out incumbent Ed "Don't Call Me Pelosi" Perlmutter, 40-39. Some observations on the survey: The voter sample was 38 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican and 27 percent Unaffiliated, a reasonable model given expected high GOP voter intensity. If you weight the voting sample in line with actual active voter registrations (which would assume Democrats and independents are as enthused about voting this year as Republicans), Perlmutter still only leads 40-38. In other words, this race is absolutely a statistical tie. The … [Read more...]
Ed Perlmutter’s Bush-Bashing Overlooked in 7th CD Debate Coverage
Update, 8/21: Lynn Bartels' story in today's edition of the Post fills out a little bit more detail and gives more attention to both the major party candidates... including a lede that identifies Perlmutter's Bush-bashing blameshifting (which makes the headline above obsolete). Guess the blog focus on the Libertarian candidate was supposed to be the teaser for today's story (?). I also was promised some video footage from the Frazier campaign, and will post that here when it arrives. This morning featured the first showdown of Colorado 7th Congressional candidates at a chamber of commerce-sponsored debate. It was practically in my backyard, but who has $20 or more to swing for such luxuries? The only coverage of the debate I've found … [Read more...]
New Innovative Data Colorado Poll Gives Reason for GOP Optimism
Update, 8/19: Interestingly, party identification for the poll fits very closely with what would be expected based on national trends and turnout in the recent primary election: Republican (39%), Democrat (36%), Unaffiliated (25%). Since not all respondents answered every question, the actual percentages for individual questions may vary slightly. Thanks to Jim Pfaff for supplying the information. A Colorado political survey released late this past week has garnered little attention. The survey (PDF) of 1,091 likely voters was conducted by my friend and Right-leaning political consultant Jim Pfaff of Innovative Data Solutions. Among the interesting top-line findings: U.S. Senate: Ken Buck leads appointed incumbent Democrat Michael … [Read more...]
Ryan Frazier Celebrates Primary Victory, Ready to Work to Oust Ed Perlmutter
Update: Video and photos added below the fold. ARVADA -- Victory was in the air before the party for Republican Colorado 7th Congressional candidate Ryan Frazier could really get underway. He even beat my conservative expectations. With 65 percent of precincts reporting, Frazier has a 65-35 lead and a declared victory over honorable second place contender Lang Sias. I am working to upload the video of Frazier's victory speech, but for now here are some transcribed quotes to whet your appetite. (You also can see the official statement on the Frazier website.) … [Read more...]
Colorado Primary Predictions: My Complete, Final (and Wrong?) Guesses
We are on the eve of Colorado's 2010 primary elections. A couple weeks ago I posted my preferences and prognostications. While my ballot choices haven't changed (I filled them out in ink, after all), but I'd like to issue my complete, revised and final predictions. And yes, I see a lot of close races: U.S. Senate Democratic: Michael Bennet 51, Andrew Romanoff 49 U.S. Senate GOP: Ken Buck 50+, Jane Norton 49+ Governor GOP: Scott McInnis 51, Dan Maes 49 Congressional District 3 GOP: Scott Tipton 59, Bob McConnell 41 Congressional District 7 GOP: Ryan Frazier 58, Lang Sias 42 State Treasurer GOP: Walker Stapleton 51, J.J. Ament 49 State Senate District 6 GOP: Dean Boehler 53, Ellen Roberts 47 State Senate District 20 Democratic: Dave … [Read more...]
Denver’s Michael Fallon Embraces Tough Task of Retiring Diana DeGette
Last week I was privileged with the opportunity to sit down and meet Dr. Michael Fallon, the Republican candidate for Colorado's 1st Congressional District. For those in the know, that phrase typically evokes shrugs of apathy. A Republican in the 1st CD? That covers the heart of Denver. The city has been represented by the tag team of Lefty Democratic icons Pat Schroeder and Diana DeGette for a combined 37 years. Republicans has held the office for a total of one two-year term since 1946. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, only 49 of 435 Congressional Districts are considered more heavily Democratic. But don't think for a moment that deters the 45-year-old Fallon. "Diana DeGette is out of touch with the district," the … [Read more...]
Local Veteran Blogger Goes Pro as NRO Colorado Election Correspondent
One of Colorado's best and hardest-working people in new media has gone pro. Michael Sandoval, originally an innovative and successful blogger at Slapstick Politics and more recently managing editor of People's Press Collective, is now on the Colorado 2010 election beat for National Review Online. His first posting helps to get a national audience up to speed on our state's U.S. Senate race. (By the way, thanks to Michael, for the incoming link.) Here's guessing he's not itching to provide similar treatment of Colorado's roller-coaster gubernatorial campaign. Anyway, over the next few months I look forward to good original reporting and more insightful analysis from NRO's home-grown Colorado correspondent. And I encourage my readers … [Read more...]
Gallup Survey of Institutions: Congress Rock-Bottom, Presidency Falling Fast
For what it's worth, if you want a glimpse of the public mindset concerning 16 major institutions in American society, you should check out the new Gallup survey (H/T Mike Antonucci). The following are some salient observations on how favorably Americans view the 16 major institutions: … [Read more...]
Preferences and Prognostications: Colorado Republican Primary 2010
Last night I decided the mail-in ballot had been sitting too long on my counter, so I went ahead and filled in the bubbles. Time to drop it off now, and contribute my two cents to Colorado's Republican primary election 2010. Without further ado, here are the decisions I arrived at personally, with some explanation as needed, followed by my predictions: … [Read more...]
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