Mount Virtus

"Happy to come back to Michigan, but I miss the mountains!"

Ben on Social Media

  • Facebook
  • Google+
  • LinkedIn
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Home
  • About Ben
  • Mount Virtus?
  • Writer / Editor For Hire
  • What I’m Thankful For
  • Colorado Ballot Reviews
    • Colorado Ballot 2008
    • Colorado Ballot 2010
    • Colorado Ballot 2012
  • Archives
  • Passion and Purpose:
    The Rise & Fall of Al Gansee
Home clean government Colorado 2010 State Senate Showdown: An Early Look at Hot Races

12/2/2009 By Ben 4 Comments

Colorado 2010 State Senate Showdown: An Early Look at Hot Races

Colorado Republicans need to win four seats in the upcoming 2010 elections to win back a majority in the state senate. While such a development remains improbable at the moment, it’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility. Of the 35 four-year seats in the chamber, 19 are contested in 2010 (including two for special election). Of those 19 seats:

  • 4 are Democrat incumbents facing re-election to a second term
  • 4 are open seats currently held by Democrats
  • 3 are Democrat incumbents seeking their first election to the seat after filling a vacancy
  • 5 are Republican incumbents facing re-election to a second term
  • 2 are open seats currently held by Republicans
  • 1 is a Republican incumbent seeking his first election to the seat after filling a vacancy

Here’s my amateur estimation a year ahead of the game, based on a mix of conservative and optimistic projections… Of the 8 Republican seats, only one (the open seat in Senate District 2) can be considered reasonably in play. And with the Democrats having to play defense in several other districts (see below), picking up this one should not be too likely either.

Meanwhile, of the 11 Democratic seats up for grabs, 6 are safe, 1 has a Democrat edge to hold, 3 are up for grabs, and 1 is a likely Republican pick-up. Excluding the safe seats, here are the races as I see them in order of probable Republican success (disclaimer: as in everything related to politics, projections like these are subject to change based on a host of factors — please consider this a first read 11 months before the election as a snapshot in time):

1. Senate District 6 (Archuleta, Dolores, La Plata, Montezuma, Montrose, Ouray, San Juan, San Miguel) Current State Rep. Ellen Roberts has the likeliest pickup for Republicans, as she takes on Sen. Bruce Whitehead — appointed to fill the vacancy after popular Jim Isgar secured an appointment with the Obama administration. Republican voter registration edge has shrunk slightly but is still thousands ahead of the Democrats. While party labels don’t seem to matter as much in this southwest Colorado district, Roberts is a known quantity with a major edge. Likely GOP pick-up

2. Senate District 16 (Boulder, Clear Creek, Gilpin, Grand, Jefferson, Summit) Conservative GOP newcomer Tim Leonard is the sole candidate in the field for the moment. The two parties have a near identical voter registration, with the GOP slightly ahead. If Democrat Rep. Christine Scanlan takes the plunge into this race, it drops to at least number 3. Until then, the Republicans fielding a strong candidate have every reason to be optimistic in this region. Toss-up: slight edge GOP pick-up

3. Senate District 5 (Alamosa, Chaffee, Conejos, Costilla, Delta, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Mineral, Pitkin, Rio Grande, Saguache) In 2006 Democrat Gail Schwartz very narrowly toppled incumbent Republican Lewis Entz. Yet while she brings incumbent status to the table herself in 2010, the political environment figures to be a lot better for the GOP. And challenger Wayne Wolf has established some name recognition as a Congressional candidate in 2008. (Fellow Republican Bob Rankin is not on the official candidate list as of November 19.) The difference in Republican and Democrat registrations is razor thin here. Toss-up

4. Senate District 20 (Jefferson) The mighty Moe Keller has stepped down, giving Republicans hope in this west Denver suburban district again. Democrat Keller narrowly won the seat against Steve Jensen in 2002, but (as in most senate districts across the state) the registrations have shifted from the elephants to the donkeys in the past seven years. Republicans are fielding a credible candidate in John Odom. If he goes up against moderate former Rep. Cheri Jahn, it will be a tough challenge. If liberal Dave Ruchman beats Jahn in the primary, however, this race should jump as high as number 2. Toss-up: slight edge Dem hold

5. Senate District 11 (El Paso) Republican incumbent Ed Jones lost this seat four years ago to Democrat John Morse, and now the GOP hopes to turn the tables with an upset of their own. While not yet listed as an official candidate, Owen Hill appears to be the first (and possibly the only) Republican out of the gate. It will take a lot of hard work and some favorable winds for Hill or another Republican to unseat Morse. But if the Democrats are sweating out this race next fall, you also can bet they will be sweating out their majority status in the Golden Dome. Edge: Dem hold

Since political armchair quarterbacking makes a great spectator sport, tell me where I’m wrong. Next up (hopefully within the week)… a similar early analysis of state house races.

Filed Under: clean government, Colorado Politics, Fiscal Policy, General, liberty, PPC

Trackbacks

  1. Colorado Political Analysis: 2010 [Updated] - NightTwister’s blog - RedState says:
    1/8/2010 at 7:45 pm

    […] a little early to know details, but Ben DeGrow of Mount Virtus has an excellent analysis of how the Colorado Senate and Colorado House races are shaping up. I certainly couldn’t do any better than what […]

  2. Peoples Press Collective » Colorado 2010 State Senate Showdown: First Quarter Look at Hot Races says:
    1/23/2010 at 11:00 pm

    […] late in the last decade, the good old Aughts, I set up the state of play as Colorado Republicans (currently 21-14 in the minority) seek to take back the state senate. […]

  3. The Colorado Senate Race | RedState says:
    4/26/2010 at 6:13 am

    […] for State House District 6. There are other worthy candidates too, in the CO House, and in the CO Senate. Support the Clear the Bench Colorado cause to send those justices home. As for Ken Buck and Jane […]

  4. Peoples Press Collective | Colorado Politics | The Colorado Senate Race : says:
    4/27/2010 at 2:06 am

    […] State House District 6. There are other worthy candidates too, in the Colorado House, and in the Colorado Senate. Support the Clear the Bench Colorado cause to send those justices home. As for Ken Buck and Jane […]

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Inside

  • About Ben
  • Archives
  • Colorado Ballot Reviews
    • Colorado Ballot 2008
    • Colorado Ballot 2010
    • Colorado Ballot 2012
    • Colorado Ballot 2014
  • Mount Virtus?
  • Passion and Purpose:
    The Rise & Fall of Al Gansee
  • What I’m Thankful For
  • Writer / Editor For Hire

About Me

Ben DeGrow
Grateful and growing Christian, devoted husband and father of 3, public policy analyst, returned to Michigan by way of Colorado, conservative writer, lifelong learner, Detroit Tigers fan.

Recent Posts

  • Top Books I Read in 2020
  • The All-New Christmas Music Countdown: Bigger, Better and Brighter Than Ever
  • Does the USA Face Future Divorce?
  • Resources for Veterans and their Families Amid the COVID-19 Outbreak
  • How To Keep Your Children Engaged While Learning from Home

Colorado News

  • Colorado Senate News
  • Complete Colorado
  • Independence Institute
  • Loveland Politics
  • The Colorado Observer

National News and Politics

  • Drudge Report
  • Hot Air
  • National Review
  • Politico
  • Real Clear Politics
  • Reason
  • The Washington Times
  • TownHall
  • Wall Street Journal
  • Weekly Standard
  • World Magazine

Blogs Extraordinaire

  • American Thinker
  • David Harsanyi’s Blog
  • E!! The True Conservative Story
  • EIA Intercepts
  • Evangelical Outpost
  • Hugh Hewitt
  • Instapundit
  • LaShawn Barber
  • Lileks
  • Little Green Footballs
  • Michelle Malkin
  • NRO's The Corner
  • Power Line
  • Red State

Completing the Blogroll

  • Alarming News
  • Black Five
  • Blogs of War
  • Eduwonk
  • Flypaper
  • Fraters Libertas
  • Historical Conversations
  • IMAO
  • Jay P. Greene
  • Mike Anderson
  • Mullings
  • Professor Bainbridge
  • Right Thinking
  • Right Wing News
  • Right Wing Nuthouse
  • Shot in the Dark
  • Talking Points Memo
  • Virginia Postrel
  • Volokh Conspiracy

Christian Commentary et al.

  • Kevin Pierpont
  • Sharper Iron

Conservative and GOP Sites

  • Backbone America
  • Cal Thomas
  • Colorado Republican Party
  • Colorado Republican Study Committee
  • Dennis Prager
  • Denver Metro Young Republicans
  • Free Republic
  • Heritage Foundation
  • Jefferson County Republican Party
  • Mackinac Center for Public Policy
  • Mark Steyn
  • Michael Medved
  • Rush Limbaugh

Colorado Blogs

  • American Kestrel
  • Bob Agard
  • Colorado Charter Schools
  • Colorado Peak Politics
  • Colorado Pols
  • Colorado Right
  • Conservative Libertarian Outpost
  • Coyote Gulch
  • Ed Is Watching
  • Free Colorado
  • Jeff Crank Show
  • Mark Hillman
  • Patient Power
  • PirateBallerina
  • Protein Wisdom
  • Reagan Girl
  • Rocky Mountain Alliance 1.0 (Archive)
  • Rocky Mountain Alliance 2.0 (Archive)
  • Rossputin
  • Stop the ACLU Blog
  • The Spot (Denver Post)
  • We Stand Firm

Other Sites

  • Technorati
  • Word Press

Rocky Mountain Alliance 2.0

  • Reclaim the Blue
  • The Business Word
  • The Daily Blogster
  • View from a Height

To Contact Me:
bendegrow-at-gmail.com

Copyright © 2021 RSS Feed · WordPress · Log in