National Review Online’s Michael Sandoval breaks more news this afternoon by bringing our attention to a new Magellan Strategies poll of my own 7th Congressional District. Bottom line: Republican Ryan Frazier edges out incumbent Ed “Don’t Call Me Pelosi” Perlmutter, 40-39.
Some observations on the survey:
- The voter sample was 38 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican and 27 percent Unaffiliated, a reasonable model given expected high GOP voter intensity. If you weight the voting sample in line with actual active voter registrations (which would assume Democrats and independents are as enthused about voting this year as Republicans), Perlmutter still only leads 40-38. In other words, this race is absolutely a statistical tie.
- The incumbent is in rough shape to be tied with around 40 percent support two months before the election. Unlike the challenger Frazier who has 22-11 favorable-to-unfavorable and 60 percent name recognition, there’s very little room for Perlmutter to go up: 37 favorable, 39 unfavorable and nearly 97 percent name recognition. Expect the Democrat to step up the negative campaign forthwith.
- Among voters in Perlmutter’s home base of Jefferson County, Frazier maintains a 40-38 edge while outpolling the incumbent 43-36 in his own Arapahoe County backyard. Perlmutter narrowly wins the Democratic-leaning Adams County 41-37.
- In addition to the fact that 7th CD voters believe the country is on the wrong track by a 65-35 margin, they also substantially disapprove of Obama’s job performance (57-39) and have a strong negative opinion of Nancy Pelosi (61-28). Among CD-7 unaffiliated voters, 60 percent disapprove of Obama’s performance and 68 percent have a negative opinion of Pelosi.
The Denver Post‘s Curtis Hubbard takes note of the poll and remarks:
At a minimum, it’s worth keeping an eye on the 7th Congressional District race to gauge just how much momentum Republicans have this cycle.
To help understand why Frazier has built momentum in this race, check out the campaign’s YouTube page, and watch some of the clips from the recent Arvada Chamber of Commerce (“Arvada CC”) debate.
In the meantime, I won’t be holding my breath waiting for Colorado Pols to update their Big Lie, er, Line.
[…] Frazier clearly has emerged. Polling shows a neck-and-neck race with liberal Perlmutter’s support hovering around 40 percent, a sure sign of trouble for the incumbent. It would only make sense for Perlmutter’s Republican […]