A week ago I mentioned a new poll from Colorado’s 7th Congressional District showing Republican challenger Ryan Frazier in a statistical dead heat with liberal Democrat Ed Perlmutter. Compliments of the Frazier campaign, below are the details of the April 8 survey from Magellan Data Mapping and Strategies:
Ryan Frazier (R): 39%
Ed Perlmutter (D): 42%
Survey Demographics
Republican: 35%
Democrat: 39%
Unaffiliated: 26%781N survey of likely general election voters in Colorado’s Seventh Congressional District.
The interviewing was conducted on April 8th, 2010. This survey has a margin of error of +/3.5% at the 95% confidence interval.
For Frazier this represents steady and significant progress over the past six months. Here are the results of Magellan’s October 2009 survey:
Ryan Frazier (R): 35%
Ed Perlmutter (D): 42%Survey Demographics
Republican: 36%
Democrat: 37%
Unaffiliated: 27%709N survey of likely general election voters in Colorado’s Seventh Congressional District.
MoE +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence interval.
Frazier gained 4 points on Perlmutter, even though Democratic voters are more heavily represented in the newer sample, and is now in a dead heat with the incumbent. Translation: The race for Colorado’s 7th Congressional District is on.
This is great news, Ben. And maybe even a little surprising. If the current trends continue–and it seems that they will–it is entirely conceivable that the GOP will end up with five of the seven congressional seats in the state.
I commented to you last week my theory that the country is essentially defaulting to the same sort of political make-up that we saw in 2002 and 2004. Colorado, and the rest of the country, is hitting the re-set button on partisan politics to such an extent that the GOP will win races like CDs-7 and 3. If I’m right, the GOP will take back a Senate seat, the state legislature, the governor’s seat, and three house seats. And don’t look now, but the polling suggests that that just might be what’s going to happen. I sure hope the GOP is ready to catch this wave, because their anemic voter registation efforts of the past few years won’t win elections this year.