At American Thinker, Randall Hoven uses some firsthand research of federal statistics to turn down the volume on the alarm of economic “crisis”. Hoven shows that while the current recession has not yet quite reached its peak, on several major measures it’s not as bad as several others since World War Two:
So simply going by averages, this recession should end this year, maybe even in this quarter or the next. If things go bad, or no worse than in the last 60 years, we might not pull out of it until late this year, with lousy employment figures lagging into 2010.
By the way, none of the previous recessions was ended by the government spending a trillion dollars. Our current deficit is projected to be 7% of GDP or more. The deficit never exceeded 6% of GDP in any of the previous 10 recessions, or at any time since 1946.
On one hand, economic forecasting can be as much art as science. On the other hand, it’s hard to argue with the numbers. I would be interested to see what Joshua or Rossputin might say about this article.
Forecasting domestic and global economies is much like looking through a kaleidoscope. Current problems can be solved and with a new day and with a turn of the wheel a new picture presents itself. And each step into the future will never discount desire, vigor and the strength of the human spirit. Who knows when the crowds will appear to purchase your wares. It is the wise one who will be prepared. So, in summation, ours is to imagine being here some two to three years later. Yes, when all this mess has been cleaned up, oh it could be earlier than that when we start feeling safe and secure again. At that point we will want to have invested our money when times were tougher, bleaker and less favorable, when we were perhaps a little frightened that tomorrow might be worse. And it never has been.