At American Thinker, Randall Hoven uses some firsthand research of federal statistics to turn down the volume on the alarm of economic “crisis”. Hoven shows that while the current recession has not yet quite reached its peak, on several major measures it’s not as bad as several others since World War Two:
So simply going by averages, this recession should end this year, maybe even in this quarter or the next. If things go bad, or no worse than in the last 60 years, we might not pull out of it until late this year, with lousy employment figures lagging into 2010.
By the way, none of the previous recessions was ended by the government spending a trillion dollars. Our current deficit is projected to be 7% of GDP or more. The deficit never exceeded 6% of GDP in any of the previous 10 recessions, or at any time since 1946.
On one hand, economic forecasting can be as much art as science. On the other hand, it’s hard to argue with the numbers. I would be interested to see what Joshua or Rossputin might say about this article.