What’s the deal with Colorado Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis skipping out on this month’s state party candidate forum and straw poll? And then making a big deal out of it? Apparently, the strange interviews weren’t enough.
The candidate touting broader polls he commissioned showing his own name recognition advantage won’t stand next to Josh Penry (whom I support) and Dan Maes (whom I respect) to gauge the support of the party faithful. Who does he hope is going to elect him? In search of satisfactory answers, read Westword’s account of an interview with McInnis campaign spokesman Sean Duffy.
If the trajectory of this race continues to any extent in the direction it’s going, it’s not a long matter of time before Josh Penry is the frontrunner and the heir apparent to take on a politically vulnerable Bill Ritter.
Another data point
I have been walking precincts in Colorado Springs for myself since May 2d. I find that the precinct leaders, largely single issue social conservatives with some notable exceptions, are completely out of touch with the voters.
I think it is 9-1 against them when it comes to choosing between a big tent strategy and a pure party strategy. It is so lopsided that I now talk to voters not only about voting for me in the primary, but also about going to caucuses to vote them out.
The activists who are likely to attend the dinner were put in place by these precinct leaders. How can one expect them to be more in touch than the precinct leaders?
I think a straw poll would reflect an alternate reality.
My election prediction: Penry handily wins the assembly, McInnis handily wins the primary. The Values Voters sit another election out. Ritter gets four more.
Tom
I don’t see how things going the current trajectory favor McInnis in the primary. When it comes down to it, I believe Penry is the stronger general election candidate — more substance, better temperament, etc, etc. The Penry vs. McInnis race is in no sense a reflection on the “big tent strategy” vs. “pure party strategy”. Neither one is pandering toward the latter in any way that I can see, and I’ve been following it quite closely. The two candidates are divided on other grounds.
Penry has strong recent name recognition from consistently calling out the current Governor on the issues. McInnis has a positive but now distant name recognition among the faithful with only a vague concept of where he stands. Maes, a newbe has been doing a good job of cultivating the party faithful and brings a good resume but totally lacks name recognition among the public required for a Primary.
All three are capable of taking out the current Governor, assuming they don’t leave enough dirt on the ground in their own battle for the competition to capitalize on. However, the playing field just leveled with the entry of competition within the other party creating potential for campaign mis-speaks there as well.
Assuming the current Governor survives his own party’s challenger Penry takes Caucus and Primary as well as the General. Otherwise Penry takes Caucus and Primary and the General is a toss-up.
I look forward to the Douglas County Picnic 9/19 (DCGOP.org for info) where all 3 will take the stage. Hope to see you there.