Do I think Beauprez’s campaign is in bad shape? Yes, I’m not stupid. But the Republican running for governor is NOT trailing by 22 points – as reports the Rocky Mountain News this morning.
Take a closer look at the poll numbers, conveniently released on the day before the Republicans’ big Get-Out-The-Vote kicks off. Among other things, this same survey showed Amendment 43 losing 41-40, which is way off from what other polls have shown. The sample of “likely voters” is 37% Republican, 38% Democrat, and 25% Independent. That turnout model is a little skewed, I suspect. And doing phone polls during the day on Monday through Wednesday will likely distort results, too.
(One other note: The one-note anti-Beauprez vitriol of ToTheRight’s bloggers is most recently manifested in their inability or unwillingness to critically assess a SurveyUSA poll which appears to confirm their gleeful preconceptions. Do you really believe these numbers are accurate? I know you don’t like the GOP’s choice for governor, but think about the effect an uncritical assessment of this polling data may have on other candidates you do support.)
My message to GOP voters & volunteers is not to be affected by the polling reports. The race for governor will be considerably closer, and every vote you make will benefit our other Republican candidates in the battle for the state house, state senate, state treasurer, secretary of state, etc.
Look … even the libs over at ColoradoPols are skeptical of this poll. There will be plenty of time to be upset about the defeats we may experience after Nov. 7, but let’s not get demoralized now and multiply those defeats. There is a lot at stake during the final 96 hours.