But of course, the four different possible matchups of Democrat vs. Republican will be determined by voters in their respective parties by August 10. As the two GOP candidates Ken Buck and Jane Norton vie to make their respective cases for electability as one factor among many to woo primary voters, it’s also of great value to see how the two are faring against each other.
A newly-released Magellan Strategies poll may be some of the best news Ken Buck has garnered yet. Among a representative sample of 1,026 likely Republican primary voters surveyed statewide, Buck holds a 42-32 advantage over Norton. Perhaps even more interesting are some of the breakdowns within the poll:
- Favorability ratings for Norton: 37.4 favorable / 31.3 unfavorable / 23.7 no opinion = 92.3% Name ID
- Favorability ratings for Buck: 39.1 favorable / 13.3 unfavorable / 32.2 no opinion = 84.6% Name ID
- Among the 860 “extremely likely” to vote, Buck leads Norton 43-32; among the remaining 166 not as likely to vote, Buck only leads Norton 34-28
- 35 percent of votes for Norton are “definitely” voting for her as opposed to 65 percent who said “probably”
- 42.5 percent of votes for Buck are “definitely” voting for him as opposed to 57.5 percent who said “probably”
- Among male voters, Buck leads Norton 45-32; among female voters, Buck leads Norton 39-32
- Buck shows strongest among voters in northern Colorado, the eastern Plains, and the 6th Congressional in the south/west Denver suburbs, while Norton fares best on the Western Slope, southern Colorado and Denver proper
Given the significant amount of voters “probably” supporting their respective candidates and a quarter of those polled expressing indecision, making more than two-thirds of the electorate at least somewhat open to be swayed, it’s fair to say the race is still very much up for grabs.
But if Ken Buck can continue his momentum by reporting a significant increase in fundraising through the end of this month, all signs will show him as the come-from-behind prohibitive favorite for the last month of the primary campaign.