Jim Geraghty looks at the Rasmussen poll data (showing McCain and Obama tied at 46, but McCain clobbering Hillary 52-38) and muses:We've seen Obama running ahead of Hillary in some states, but an 11 or 12 point difference? What's got him so popular there, and her so unpopular? Does Obama come across as a mountain state kind of guy? Is he related to John Elway or something? I don't have a good answer to that question, but many hypotheses abound. Coloradans don't like the old-style Eastern politics that Hillary Clinton represents. Colorado swing voters are more open to vapid liberal platitudes than cynical ones. Frankly, it beats me. Hillary polls terribly unpopular here and would have virtually no chance to win the Centennial State in a … [Read more...]
PJM’s Gettysburg Metaphor Daily Reminder of Bitter Democratic Primary
Today's reminder that the Democrats are engaged in a bitter intramural fight for the presidential nomination: Rick Moran at Pajamas Media compares the upcoming Pennsylvania primary (upcoming as in April 22 ... 40 days or so) to the Battle of Gettysburg for its potential to dictate the final outcome in the Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton showdown:A Hillary Clinton win in Pennsylvania – especially a big win – will probably start a movement of Super Delegates in her direction. It won’t be decisive given that a number of Supers will hold off endorsing anyone until the convention. But it will almost certainly allow her to catch up and perhaps even surpass Obama in total delegates. This is hugely important because it will cut into Obama’s … [Read more...]
Random Bits o’ Spitzer
Spent a few minutes surfing the Web, and found this collection of tidbits on New York Governor Eliot Spitzer, the frenzied media's scandal du jour. From the sublime to the ridiculous ... first, Mickey Kaus notes that a Spitzer resignation (unless he's brazen enough to stick it out) would put school choice supporter Lt. Governor David Paterson at the helm of the Empire State. That's good news. And on the lighter side, Scrapple Face's Scott Ott notes the chief clue that tipped off investigators to Spitzer's illicit behavior:A spokesman from the prosecutor’s office said, “Typically, when a Democrat Governor comes to the nation’s capital, he’s got his hat in hand and winds up leaving town with a bunch of money. The fact that Spitzer … [Read more...]
The Democrat Primary Goes On…
Hillary Clinton bests Barack Obama on Super Tuesday Part II. Though still trailing in the delegate count, she has the momentum and the talking points. Meanwhile, Obama is weighted down all of a sudden with scandal and controversy. Both still have plenty of money to continue their brutal internecine political fistfight at least until Pennsylvania in April 22 - and probably beyond. Can't say it makes this blogger feel bad. Two points: 1. Many are going to overestimate the effect conservative cross-over voters had on Hillary's win in Texas. She won anyway, though with maybe a one-half to one percent increase in the final margin. 2. Attempts by Rep. Ed Perlmutter and other Colorado Democrat leaders to assure Democrat voters about the … [Read more...]
Dem Leaders Weakly Downplay Voters’ Superdelegate Anxieties
An interesting piece in today's Denver Post: "Democrats vouch for superdelegate system." On a day where Hillary looks to make a comeback in the presidential primary with some critical wins, further muddling the contest between her and Obama, the possibility looms that the un-democratic superdelegate system will decide the party's leadership. So it's interesting to see Democrat leaders in Colorado try to downplay a potential crisis to their confused constituents:U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter of Golden, a superdelegate who supports Barack Obama, acknowledged that the large number of automatic delegates worried the Obama campaign because Hillary Rodham Clinton and former President Bill Clinton have had long-term relationships with so many party … [Read more...]
McCain Needs to Woo Conservatives
Since last night's results make it increasingly apparent that Sen. John McCain is not only the Republican front-runner but its putative nominee-to-be, here are some thoughts. Exit polls confirm the obvious - that McCain has a lot of work to do to woo conservatives. Mary Matalin (via KJ Lopez at the Corner) has some concrete ideas for what the McCain campaign can do to make it happen: … [Read more...]
Florida Forecast
Based on my track record for predicting primary/caucus results this year, I don't think anyone wants the jinx of being predicted a winner of today's Florida primary. But here goes anyway: Romney ... 33% McCain ... 31% Giuliani ... 17% Huckabee ... 14% Paul ... 5% Romney builds his delegate count lead, gains an edge in the momentum, and further coalesces the conservative coalition in his favor heading into Super Tuesday. McCain continues to lead in some of the February 5 primary states, but his advantage slips in many polls. Giuliani hangs around, but sees his supporters slip away more-or-less evenly to the two frontrunners. Huckabee can only count on picking up some spare Southern state delegates and hope to have a little sway at … [Read more...]