A ‘No-mentum’ Race for Governor

Courtesy of Real Clear Politics, the latest Rasmussen numbers in Colorado’s race for governor show that none of the 3 candidates has gained any traction in the past month. The narrow teeter-totter between Republican Bob Beauprez and Democrat Bill Ritter has tipped slightly in Beauprez’s favor (essentially because Ritter’s numbers dropped), but still within the margin of error. Ritter’s lead over Holtzman remains steady at 5 points.

Here were the rolling averages of head-to-head matchups for March:

Bill Ritter (D) 41%
Bob Beauprez (R) 40%

Bill Ritter (D) 41%
Marc Holtzman (R) 36%

Rasmussen released the April averages today:

Bob Beauprez (R) 39%
Bill Ritter (D) 37%

Bill Ritter (D) 41%
Marc Holtzman (R) 36%

Perhaps most telling are the individual candidate’s favorable vs. unfavorable ratings:

Ritter is viewed favorably by 52% of likely voters, unfavorably by 25%. Beauprez is viewed favorably by 48%, unfavorably by 31%. Holtzman is viewed favorably by just 35% (a five-point drop since late March) and unfavorably by 33%, with 32% Not Sure what to think of him.

Among Republicans, Beauprez is viewed favorably by 69%, Holzman [sic] by 51%.

Voters appear to have less clear opinions of all candidates than a month before. Ritter’s favorable rating held steady while his unfavorables dropped by 5 points. Beauprez’s favorable rating declined 4 points and his unfavorable rating by 3 points. Holtzman’s favorable rating fell 5 points and his unfavorables fell 1 point.

Bottom line: recent developments in the campaign appear to have generated more confusion and/or apathy about the candidates than anything else. The recent intraparty mud-slinging has definitely heightened since the end of the polling period, but its April effects appeared to have benefited no one and to have hurt the Democrat Ritter (who remains outside the fray) the least.

The numbers for all candidates have reached a plateau – at least temporarily – and neither Republican contender appears to have gained a rhetorical edge in their case for electability.

While Beauprez is the only Republican to have a survey showing him leading Ritter (though slightly), he still has the smallest “No Opinion” factor & presumably will have a harder time breaking through the ceiling.

Some negative press looks to have taken steam out of the Holtzman engine. But if he can emerge unscathed from the recent legal proceedings he has the greatest potential of any candidate to win over independent and undecided voters.

Cross posted at Holtzman v Beauprez