Courtesy of Real Clear Politics, the latest Rasmussen numbers in Colorado’s race for governor show that none of the 3 candidates has gained any traction in the past month. The narrow teeter-totter between Republican Bob Beauprez and Democrat Bill Ritter has tipped slightly in Beauprez’s favor (essentially because Ritter’s numbers dropped), but still within the margin of error. Ritter’s lead over Holtzman remains steady at 5 points.

Here were the rolling averages of head-to-head matchups for March:

Bill Ritter (D) 41%
Bob Beauprez (R) 40%

Bill Ritter (D) 41%
Marc Holtzman (R) 36%

Rasmussen released the April averages today:

Bob Beauprez (R) 39%
Bill Ritter (D) 37%

Bill Ritter (D) 41%
Marc Holtzman (R) 36%

Perhaps most telling are the individual candidate’s favorable vs. unfavorable ratings:

Ritter is viewed favorably by 52% of likely voters, unfavorably by 25%. Beauprez is viewed favorably by 48%, unfavorably by 31%. Holtzman is viewed favorably by just 35% (a five-point drop since late March) and unfavorably by 33%, with 32% Not Sure what to think of him.

Among Republicans, Beauprez is viewed favorably by 69%, Holzman [sic] by 51%.

Voters appear to have less clear opinions of all candidates than a month before. Ritter’s favorable rating held steady while his unfavorables dropped by 5 points. Beauprez’s favorable rating declined 4 points and his unfavorable rating by 3 points. Holtzman’s favorable rating fell 5 points and his unfavorables fell 1 point.

Bottom line: recent developments in the campaign appear to have generated more confusion and/or apathy about the candidates than anything else. The recent intraparty mud-slinging has definitely heightened since the end of the polling period, but its April effects appeared to have benefited no one and to have hurt the Democrat Ritter (who remains outside the fray) the least.

The numbers for all candidates have reached a plateau – at least temporarily – and neither Republican contender appears to have gained a rhetorical edge in their case for electability.

While Beauprez is the only Republican to have a survey showing him leading Ritter (though slightly), he still has the smallest “No Opinion” factor & presumably will have a harder time breaking through the ceiling.

Some negative press looks to have taken steam out of the Holtzman engine. But if he can emerge unscathed from the recent legal proceedings he has the greatest potential of any candidate to win over independent and undecided voters.

Cross posted at Holtzman v Beauprez

Here’s a must-read article – unlike many of the topics I cover, it’s not dependent on the ebb and flow of current events. Still, I encourage you to read it sooner rather than later, as I believe you will find hope and encouragement therein: Dr. Terence Moore of Fort Collins’ Ridgeview Classical Academy writes in Touchstone Magazine about America’s “Red-State Students” who are seeking a higher education than the Ivy League.

For those of us engaged in the current “battles” of politics and public policy, whose passions tend to rise and fall with day-to-day advances and setbacks, it is most encouraging to see a generation of young men and women (like “Promise”) emerging with a solid classical foundation and a moral compass. I know young people like this exist because I have seen and interacted with some of them. And I thank God for His grace.

People of the Left, I encourage you to read the article, too. Face your worst fears, as a generation of well-grounded, truth-loving, hard-working conservative kids rise to take the helms of leadership in their families, churches, and communities throughout America. I’m sure many of you will snicker and sneer to avoid the confrontation. Contrary to the hyperbolic rantings of some on the Leftward fringes, you do not have to fear the loss of your freedoms … just the loss of relevance in the public debate. In order to better understand the future, you would be wise to meet one of these young people on their own terms – even if only through reading the article.

The “Red-State Students” do not belong to the webs of desperate nihilism or chestless postmodernism but to the enduring traits of faith, honor, prudence, and purity. And they merit our prayers.

It is because of leaders like Dr. Moore and of loving, conscientious families like the one “Promise” comes from that long-term victory awaits us, even if we are left to endure some short-term setbacks along the way.

Last week I highlighted the burgeoning campaign of Affie Ellis for State House District 29 in north Jeffco, as she prepares to challenge vulnerable Democrat incumbent Debbie Benefield.

Another Republican woman who is changing the dynamics of the fall elections for the state legislature is Aimee Rathburn in Denver’s House District 1, a seat being vacated by term-limited Democrat Representative Fran Coleman. While it’s hard for the GOP to capture any seat in Denver, HD 1 is easily the best shot. And Rathburn, a candidate with gumption and good ideas, is set to make her mark, as this press release correctly indicates:

Aimee Rathburn, the GOP’s House District One candidate, is sending shockwaves through the Colorado political community through her strong first quarter fundraising performance.

Democrat and Republican leaders are now considering targeting the race for its potential to determine partisan control over the legislature in the 2007 session, with many top GOP leaders already voicing support for Rathburn’s candidacy.

“For years, Republicans have given up this seat without much thought to Democrats, but clearly the demographics are such that with the right candidate, the GOP can pick up this seat,” said John Zakhem, a Denver resident and counsel for the state Republican Party. “Aimee is clearly the candidate to make it happen, and she may just be the key to Republicans winning back the state legislature this year.”

Aimee Rathburn is a 20-year resident of House District 1, a non-profit development director, outdoorswoman and conservationist dedicated to protecting our water supply. She has been married for 18 years to a Denver Police officer.

House District 1 includes roughly 34,000 voters in southwest Denver and the City of Sheridan in Arapahoe County. Historically a Republican enclave in an otherwise Democratically-represented Denver, conservatives have made significant inroads in the district. Denver City Councilwoman Jeanne Faatz bested her opponent 4-to-1 here. The Rathburn campaign has already raised four times more than the previous Republican house candidate in House District 1.

Already, Rathburn is outpacing her potential Democrat opponents, with donations totaling nearly $13,000, and with more than $11,000 in cash remaining on hand.

Supporters praise Rathburn’s experience and devotion to local issues. “Aimee’s commitment to Denver’s neighborhoods is second to none,” said Bob Crider, former Denver City Councilman and City Auditor. “As my Aide at both City Council and the Auditor’s Office she not only stayed apprised of neighborhood concerns and issues, she stayed ahead of them.”

To contact the Rathburn campaign, call Brad Jones, her campaign manager, at 720-221-8412 or send an email to Brad@BradJonesLLC.com.

The Democrats can’t be enjoying the fact that another one of their seats is in play for the fall election.

The Rocky Mountain News sheds light on yesterday’s radio ads. According to the report, the ads were produced by “Coloradans for Freedom and Opportunity,” or the political henchmen of the pro-tax increase power brokers in the state Republican party.

Last year Marc Holtzman challenged their stand on Referendum C, and they throw buckets of mud back – mostly innuendo. I wonder where the preponderance of the GOP’s grassroots – who are scheduled to convene in Colorado Springs on May 20 – stood on Ref C. Well, let me tell you: with Holtzman, not with Katy Atkinson and Bruce Benson. I have a hard time explaining the timing of the release of these ads, except that the anti-Holtzman crowd are attempting to curb a defeat at the State Assembly, or at least to take their negative appeal to a broader audience.

Holtzman and his team had to have anticipated the escalation of these sort of vitriolic assaults. How they respond in the coming weeks will say a lot about the quality and character of the campaign. If done well, they may be able to rally more of the party faithful to their banner.

We have 16 days to see which candidate earns top line at the Assembly. Depending on which side you listen to, you get drastically different stories of where the levels of support are. A lot of jockeying is going on for the narrowest cadres of support. What I hope for, more than anything, is a fair and untainted vote at the Assembly (unlike the clouds of controversy that swirled in 2004).

While I tend to disagree with John Straayer in most cases, his analysis quoted in the Rocky that a “civil war” has been taking place in Colorado’s Republican Party is not far off.

Make no mistake, however, that this “civil war” has roots far deeper than Holtzman and Beauprez and 2006. I can only hope that the candidate with fewer primary votes can urge his cohorts to lay down their arms come August.

Cross posted at Holtzman v Beauprez

Update, 4:53 PM: I just received a recorded phone call from Lola Spradley calling on Republicans to denounce a nasty attack ad the Beauprez campaign apparently has aired against Marc Holtzman on KOA today. I haven’t been tuned into KOA today … anyone who has heard said ad, please comment or send me an email. What timing that I should publish this post this morning! My statement regarding “how few of us there are actually paying attention” may be moot at this point.

Leaving aside the nature of the attacks (though judging from recent output, it could be as bad as the recorded message made it sound), does anyone want to offer their insights why Beauprez is pulling out heavy artillery against Holtzman so early … more than two weeks before the State Assembly? Not good, my GOP friends, not good….

Primary campaigns do tend to get ugly. A sure sign that the assumed frontrunner senses his rival gaining ground is the significant amount of mud being slung back. Such is the case in Colorado’s Republican gubernatorial showdown, as Bob Beauprez’s campaign manager John Marshall recently has sent around an email with a list of claims to demonstrate a trend of dishonesty by Holtzman. Some of them don’t even merit responses, but of the few that do, the Holtzman team has fired back on one. Says Marshall:

Marc Holtzman claimed President Ronald Reagan appointed him executive director of Citizens for America, but the truth is President Reagan did not.

Holtzman’s camp has staked its honesty on hard evidence by producing an actual copy of a letter from well-respected former Attorney General Ed Meese that they claim refutes Marshall’s assertion.

I hope that Holtzman responds to some more of the charges with such evidence, but for now, he and running mate Lola Spradley should stick to a more positive message than their opponent.

We’ve also seen a Beauprez supporter file an election complaint against Holtzman attempting to quell his free speech. Is that what Republicans stand for? For some, when it’s convenient, yes … unfortunately. Don’t think the other side isn’t paying close attention to the hypocrisy:

Bob Beauprez’s gubernatorial campaign is going after Marc Holtzman’s campaign manager for making false statements to the press, and the statute they are citing is the same one that Democrats have complained has been violated by The Trailhead Group in robocalls designed to hurt targeted Democrats. If Beauprez gets his way, does that put new scrutiny back on The Trailhead Group? Two of Trailhead’s founders, Gov. Bill Owens and oilman Bruce Benson, are two of Beauprez’s biggest backers.

The bright side at this point is how few of us there are actually paying attention. Maybe a campaign of ideas is too much for this amateur pundit to hope for, but could we save just a little bit of mud for the other side… please?

Cross posted at Holtzman v Beauprez

I’m amazed how much this Web site has become a curiosity. Jason Bane, the face of the Dead Governors’ site, has included Mount Virtus in his inquiry into why the right side of Colorado’s blogosphere seems less active for 5280 Magazine:

Of all of the conservative, politically-active blogs out there in Colorado, Blog It Right and Mt. Virtus spend the most time talking politics on a local level. Mt. Virtus, run by a guy who works at the conservative Independence Institute, probably does the best job of keeping focused on local politics, but he sometimes goes weeks without posting something new….

It’s also interesting to compare the traffic to some of these blogs. On the conservative side, Blog it Right only averages about 28 visitors a day, while Mt. Virtus gets about 42 visitors a day (the statistics are publicly available on their Web sites). SoapBlox Colorado, meanwhile, averages around 450 visitors a day.

(more…)

If April is any indication, 2006 figures to be a happier baseball season at Mount Virtus than in the dismal climes of the Northern Alliance or the deluded braggadocio of Hugh Hewitt. Here are the American League Central standings as the regular season’s first month has come to a close:

Chi White Sox 17-7 (-)
Detroit 16-9 (1.5 GB)
Cleveland 13-12 (4.5 GB)
Minnesota 9-15 (8.0 GB)
Kansas City 5-17 (11.0 GB)

Prognosticators and pundits may start to get a little uneasy, though a lot of baseball remains to be played. My Detroit Tigers, however, have given every evidence of finally turning it around this season with new manager Jim Leyland at the helm. After their best April since the historic 1984 championship season, the team continues to excel on the field and act as if it’s business as usual. Great starting pitching, a reliable bullpen, power at the key spots in the lineup, clutch hitting throughout the order, solid defense, and contributions from the bench. Remarkably, Detroit is 11-4 on the road and 5-5 at home.

It’s way too early to gloat, but it sure is nice to see Cleveland three games back in the standings. Yet it’s much harder to contain the emotion after the Tigers turned the tables this past weekend on their Minnesota rivals – typically a big roadblock for Detroit baseball – in impressive fashion. The three-game sweep saw the Tigs outscore the Twins by a total of 33-1, including a Comerica Park-record-setting 18-1 Saturday performance.

I can’t blame Major League Baseball’s devotees for holding back in skepticism. It’s been a long time since the Old English D has made a real dent. But this Tigers fan is feeling his biggest dose of optimism in a LONG time, and doesn’t mind one bit doing it at the expense of the Twins and the Indians.