So if the Denver Post insists that a “recount looms” in Colorado’s U.S. Senate race, why do I predict that Ken Buck will defeat appointed incumbent Michael Bennet by four points? What makes me so confident that my prognostication is more accurate than the hype?
On The Spot blog, Post political editor Curtis Hubbard lists the most recent polls from the seven different major firms tracking this race, along with the New York Times blog prediction, listed as follows from most recent to oldest: Read the rest of this entry »
ELECTION DAY NOTE: I will be providing Election Night coverage here, including quotes and photos as available. I am working with a collaborative of organizations on this project — including Independence Institute, People’s Press Collective, Complete Colorado, Who Said You Said, Mothers Against Debt and National Review Online. Go here for the relevant details (including a live video feed), and stay tuned for the best in Colorado grassroots conservative political coverage!
Update II, 12:30 PM:Minor tweak to the governor’s race predictions.
Following the most bizarre and unpredictable political campaign season in recent memory, I’ve decided to do the unthinkable and venture some predictions on results. Please note that I am venturing educated guesses with my head, not my heart. (If you want to get involved in some of the action yourself, Rossputin is hosting a general election prediction game.) Now without further ado, first the Colorado statewide races: Read the rest of this entry »
As Election Day draws very close, and the campaign intensity reaches a fever pitch, it can be easy to lose track of the truly important things in life. In that light, I received this morning the following press release from Colorado Springs Republican state senate candidate Owen Hill:
Owen Hill, Republican candidate for Senate District 11, and his wife Emily are delighted to announce the arrival of their fourth child. Elinor Jane arrived early Friday morning weighing in at 6lb. 14oz. “Needless to say, that in the final hours of a political campaign, Elinor’s arrival is a great reminder that the reason I am running for this office is to make our community a better place to live in”, said Owen Hill. The Hill family is hopeful that Elinor will be able to attend the El Paso County Republican election night party at Copperhead Road.
Though I’m not into numerology, I will note that Elinor is the Hills’ fourth child born four days before the election, and that the term of office for state senate is four years. Coincidence? Likely.
Maybe it’s just that as the father of two girls I have a soft spot for this sort of thing. But an election night victory over Democratic state senate leader John Morse — which quite possibly could make Hill the youngest member of the Colorado State Senate (and you have to be young to have the needed energy to face the stressful intersection of an election season campaign and a new child at the same time) — would just be icing on the cake after news like this.
Despite the massive negative advertising campaigns and attempts to distract the voters with other issues, a major point that weighs on voters is what candidates want to do vis a vis federal government spending. Nowhere is this concern more salient than in the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Buck and appointed Democrat incumbent Michael Bennet (trying to hide his allegiance to President Obama’s agenda from Colorado voters).
You and I may not have time to analyze the details of how the respective candidates’ proposals will affect the already bloated federal budget and the debt my children already face, but the National Taxpayers Union (NTU) has done the work for us. Here’s the basic breakdown:
That’s a projected difference of $8.5 billion, frankly not a lot in the scheme of the mammoth federal budget but an indicator nonetheless of some key differences on a major issue. Thanks to NTU for at least clearing up matters a bit.
…Of deconstructing polls there is no end; and much political analysis is a weariness of the flesh. (A gold star to the first reader who catches the reference)
It’s less than a week until the midterm election. We’re being bombarded by polls. But simply put, they’re not all created equal. In some cases, the problem is easier to see than in others. Take for example the new CNN/Time poll on Colorado races with a mix of credible and incredible top-line results (H/T Complete Colorado). The Denver Post‘s Curtis Hubbard picks up on some of the survey schizophrenia. This one merits a closer look.
First, the seemingly credible: Republican Ken Buck leads appointed Democrat incumbent Michael Bennet in the U.S. Senate race, 47-46.
Update, 10/29:Jessica Corry has a more thorough take on the topic in her latest Huffington Post column. She writes: “Shame on Cary Kennedy, now revealed to be just another typical career politician who will do anything to save her job.” Read the whole thing.
It’s the last week in October. A pro-Republican Tea Party wave is coming through Colorado and the nation, carrying away Democrat officials who broke faith by pouring on their Progressive policies, spending your money recklessly and racking up debt. Some Democrats are more out of touch than others.
There is a very real threat that the wave will carry Cary away and that a more fiscally conservative Republican Walker Stapleton — with real-life private sector business experience — will carry the day. Stapleton has a small but genuine lead in the polls heading into Election Day. That’s when you know it’s Democrat Desperation Time. Read the rest of this entry »
Nearly three years ago I blogged a tribute to my Grandpa DeGrow (1907-1998) on the 100th anniversary of his birth. Tonight I share a similar tribute to my Grandma Hutchings (1910-2001) on the 100th anniversary of her birth. As I wrote in November 2008, expressing thankfulness for the legacy of my grandparents:
Grandma Hutchings – my maternal grandmother – was a testament to patience and sweetness. She was hard-working, generous with what little she had, and nearly always teeming with quiet joys. And she endured no small share of hardships in her life.
The desperate silly season of electoral politics is upon us. Nowhere does the silliness and desperation resound more than from the campaign of an out-of-touch liberal Congressional incumbent in the fight for his political life. Look no further than my home district, Colorado’s 7th, where Congressman Ed Perlmutter has fired a wild miss:
Incumbent Democrat Rep. Ed Perlmutter has hit an all-time low in a desperate attempt to keep his fading political career alive. His latest attack ad wrongly criticizes Ryan Frazier for missing half of his volunteer board meetings at High Point Academy, the public charter school Frazier co-founded. Perlmutter’s attack ad has even disappointed the Board President of High Point Academy, Brandon Wyszynski.
For those still wondering how third-party conservative gubernatorial candidate Tom Tancredo is more likely to govern — at least when the choice is between showing support and loyalty to a highly qualified and credible Republican or an American Constitution Party spoiler — it was encouraging to see today’s release: Read the rest of this entry »
Update, 10/25:Casting further doubt on the Denver Post / SurveyUSA poll is today’s release from the Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling, which finds Hickenlooper up 47-44 over Tancredo, with only 5 percent in the Maes camp. This poll was conducted after both Magellan and SurveyUSA — from Thursday, October 21, to Saturday, October 23. (H/T Curtis Hubbard, The Spot)
The Magellan poll was conducted on Wednesday and has a margin of error plus/minus 3 points (1,067 likely voters). The SurveyUSA poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday with a margin of error plus/minus 4 points (621 likely voters). So we’re looking at the same time frame, but the margins of error don’t overlap. The rules of logic dictate that one of the two polls has to be wrong. In my estimation the Magellan results are closer to reality, not because they comport with my own wishes but for the following reasons: Read the rest of this entry »
Last night retiring Republican state senator Dave Schultheis — one of the conservative stalwarts under the Golden Dome — announced that he is withdrawing support from Dan Maes and backing Tom Tancredo for governor:
Much is at stake in this election, including the appointment of Supreme Court justices who will honor the law, decennial redistricting of State legislative boundaries, stopping the union takeover of state jobs, reducing the serious and negative effect of illegal immigration, the potential of modifying state statutes to allow the Republican Party to regain its majority status should it get less than 10% of the total gubernatorial votes, and much, much more. Furthermore, should Hickenlooper win, Colorado will become a far more progressive state than it has already become over the past decade. That must not be allowed that to happen.
I realize that by removing my endorsement from Dan Maes that I am also disappointing many strong conservative supporters who have applauded me for standing not just for Dan, but for the election process which I hold dear. Those who have worked so diligently for the conservative cause under the Republican banner will have the most trouble with my decision, as I have always advocated that the process must be honored because in the long-run, lack of adhering to process causes confusion, lack of commitment and frustration. Unfortunately, that process has been trashed in this election cycle. That saddens me greatly.
That said…the choice is now between Hickenlooper and Tancredo. Hickenlooper must be defeated. Therefore, I will be voting for Tom Tancredo as Colorado’s next Governor.
Every two years Americans hold their members of Congress accountable. If they have done a good job representing them they send them back to Washington, but if they fail to lead they can be replaced.
The last few years, we’ve seen the effects of failed Democratic policies. Unemployment is too high, businesses are uncertain about the future and are holding back from hiring and investing, and we’re trillions of dollars deeper in debt.
Americans want fresh, new, conservative leaders to find solutions to these problems. Today in Colorado, I campaigned with one of those new leaders, Young Gun candidate Ryan Frazier.
With less than two weeks to Election Day, the question lingers: Can liberal Democrat gubernatorial candidate John Hickenlooper really avoid all controversy until the election is over? National Review’s Michael Sandoval uncovers one controversy Hickenlooper might be unable to avoid, and it came straight from the mayor’s own lips in a 2009 interview:
Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper: I think a couple things, I mean, you know, the tragic death of Matthew Shepard occurred in Wyoming. Colorado and Wyoming are very similar. We have some of the same, you know, backwards thinking in the kind of rural Western areas you see in, you know, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico.
People in rural areas might find reason to be a little incensed at Hickenlooper (Glenn Reynolds labels it the mayor’s “bitter clinger moment”). Meanwhile, as Who Said You Said points out, the small crowds and lack of enthusiasm at Hickenlooper events certainly aren’t limited to rural areas: Read the rest of this entry »
Only two of the top 10 moments came from U.S. House races, and my own Colorado 7th CD made the list. I’m not sure whether to be astounded or proud or embarrassed… or maybe just amused. I’ll save the satisfaction until Election Night.
Of course, it was the prolific National Review Colorado blogger Michael Sandoval who first brought attention to Ed Perlmutter’s slaphappy moment that well may go down as part of the closing chapter of the liberal Democrat’s Congressional career. Can you see the political wave a-comin’?
Update / Clarification:Michael Sandoval wasn’t the first to mention the slapping incident online. Lynn Bartels mentioned it at the end of her Denver Post story on the debate, but Sandoval was the first to post the video and feature the incident as a headline story. (Adam Schrager of 9News probably wrote about it, too, in the hours after the debate, but I can’t find a link.)
