The reliable in-state Magellan Strategies polling firm today released the results of last week’s voter interviews on Colorado statewide races. Taking the pulse of 954 likely voters, they found not surprisingly that John Hickenlooper has a wide lead over Republican Dan Maes (and an even wider lead over third-party Tom Tancredo) — though some small amount of Hick’s support may have been eroded in the intervening few days before the latest Rasmussen poll was taken.

But I’m more interested in bringing attention to the down-ticket races, which Magellan features in its top line results, as follows:

• Republican Attorney General John Suthers holds a commanding 47-32 lead over Democratic challenger Stan Garnett
• Democratic State Treasurer Cary Kennedy trails GOP challenger Walker Stapleton by the modest margin of 42-38
• Appointed Democratic Secretary of State Bernie Buescher lags behind Republican rival Scott Gessler, 37-31

As is typical with these lower-profile, down-ticket races, a healthy share of undecideds (especially among unaffiliated voters) remains. But it seems more than reasonable at this point to say it’s a good year to run as a Republican in Colorado–unless your name is Dan Maes.

But a key reason why I wanted to bring attention to the down-ticket races is because the first head-to-head public survey of these races further belies the accuracy of the so-called Big Lie, er, Line on a certain local Lefty blog. It may be time for them to wake from their slumbers and update their results. In the meantime, please enjoy my amateur (and more accurate) attempt at election oddsmaking: (more…)

National Review Online’s Michael Sandoval breaks more news this afternoon by bringing our attention to a new Magellan Strategies poll of my own 7th Congressional District. Bottom line: Republican Ryan Frazier edges out incumbent Ed “Don’t Call Me Pelosi” Perlmutter, 40-39.

Some observations on the survey:

• The voter sample was 38 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican and 27 percent Unaffiliated, a reasonable model given expected high GOP voter intensity. If you weight the voting sample in line with actual active voter registrations (which would assume Democrats and independents are as enthused about voting this year as Republicans), Perlmutter still only leads 40-38. In other words, this race is absolutely a statistical tie.
• The incumbent is in rough shape to be tied with around 40 percent support two months before the election. Unlike the challenger Frazier who has 22-11 favorable-to-unfavorable and 60 percent name recognition, there’s very little room for Perlmutter to go up: 37 favorable, 39 unfavorable and nearly 97 percent name recognition. Expect the Democrat to step up the negative campaign forthwith.
• Among voters in Perlmutter’s home base of Jefferson County, Frazier maintains a 40-38 edge while outpolling the incumbent 43-36 in his own Arapahoe County backyard. Perlmutter narrowly wins the Democratic-leaning Adams County 41-37.
• In addition to the fact that 7th CD voters believe the country is on the wrong track by a 65-35 margin, they also substantially disapprove of Obama’s job performance (57-39) and have a strong negative opinion of Nancy Pelosi (61-28). Among CD-7 unaffiliated voters, 60 percent disapprove of Obama’s performance and 68 percent have a negative opinion of Pelosi.

The Denver Post‘s Curtis Hubbard takes note of the poll and remarks:

At a minimum, it’s worth keeping an eye on the 7th Congressional District race to gauge just how much momentum Republicans have this cycle.

To help understand why Frazier has built momentum in this race, check out the campaign’s YouTube page, and watch some of the clips from the recent Arvada Chamber of Commerce (“Arvada CC”) debate.

In the meantime, I won’t be holding my breath waiting for Colorado Pols to update their Big Lie, er, Line.

Update, 8/21: Lynn Bartels’ story in today’s edition of the Post fills out a little bit more detail and gives more attention to both the major party candidates… including a lede that identifies Perlmutter’s Bush-bashing blameshifting (which makes the headline above obsolete). Guess the blog focus on the Libertarian candidate was supposed to be the teaser for today’s story (?). I also was promised some video footage from the Frazier campaign, and will post that here when it arrives.

This morning featured the first showdown of Colorado 7th Congressional candidates at a chamber of commerce-sponsored debate. It was practically in my backyard, but who has $20 or more to swing for such luxuries?

The only coverage of the debate I’ve found is from the Denver Post‘s Lynn Bartels. With her former fave Lang Sias out of the 7th CD race, guess whom Bartels ended up showering the most attention on? Not rising Republican star Ryan Frazier. Not incumbent Pelosi Democrat Ed Perlmutter. Who then?

If you guessed Libertarian Buck Bailey (without reading the blog post), you win tonight’s star prize: a self-congratulatory pat on the back and a warm heaping helping of self-esteem. Taking nothing else into account, one is left to infer from the Post‘s coverage that the exchange between the two major party candidates was somewhat less than interesting. (I mean, I’m sure Mr. Bailey is a nice guy and everything….)

But the Ryan Frazier campaign had a different take. Full press release from his campaign below the fold: (more…)

Update, 8/19: Interestingly, party identification for the poll fits very closely with what would be expected based on national trends and turnout in the recent primary election: Republican (39%), Democrat (36%), Unaffiliated (25%). Since not all respondents answered every question, the actual percentages for individual questions may vary slightly. Thanks to Jim Pfaff for supplying the information.

A Colorado political survey released late this past week has garnered little attention. The survey (PDF) of 1,091 likely voters was conducted by my friend and Right-leaning political consultant Jim Pfaff of Innovative Data Solutions. Among the interesting top-line findings:

1. U.S. Senate: Ken Buck leads appointed incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet, 49-37
2. Governor: In the existing 3-way race, Democrat John Hickenlooper pulls down 38 percent, followed by 30 percent for Republican Dan Maes and 19 percent for third-party Tom Tancredo
3. However… in a hypothetical 2-way matchup, Maes leads Hick 44-42
4. Interestingly, while voters oppose the idea of replacing Maes by a margin of 43-26, with 31 percent undecide (though the numbers aren’t broken down by party affiliation), Hick fares the worst head-to-head against a hypothetical GOP replacement candidate, 45-39
5. On a generic ballot ticket for the Colorado state legislature, Republicans outpoll Democrats 50-32 (!) — a finding that if correct and taken advantage of by hard work and smart campaigning translates to new majorities in the state house and state senate
6. Unsurprisingly, 58 percent declared “jobs and economy” as the “most important issue facing Colorado voters,” followed by “government spending” (16 percent) and “illegal immigration” (15 percent)
7. 39 percent of respondents self-identified as “conservative” and 7 percent as “Tea Party,” with 31 percent “moderate” and 16 percent “liberal”

(more…)

Update: Video and photos added below the fold.

ARVADA — Victory was in the air before the party for Republican Colorado 7th Congressional candidate Ryan Frazier could really get underway. He even beat my conservative expectations. With 65 percent of precincts reporting, Frazier has a 65-35 lead and a declared victory over honorable second place contender Lang Sias.

I am working to upload the video of Frazier’s victory speech, but for now here are some transcribed quotes to whet your appetite. (You also can see the official statement on the Frazier website.) (more…)

We are on the eve of Colorado’s 2010 primary elections. A couple weeks ago I posted my preferences and prognostications. While my ballot choices haven’t changed (I filled them out in ink, after all), but I’d like to issue my complete, revised and final predictions. And yes, I see a lot of close races:

• U.S. Senate Democratic: Michael Bennet 51, Andrew Romanoff 49
• U.S. Senate GOP: Ken Buck 50+, Jane Norton 49+
• Governor GOP: Scott McInnis 51, Dan Maes 49
• Congressional District 3 GOP: Scott Tipton 59, Bob McConnell 41
• Congressional District 7 GOP: Ryan Frazier 58, Lang Sias 42
• State Treasurer GOP: Walker Stapleton 51, J.J. Ament 49
• State Senate District 6 GOP: Dean Boehler 53, Ellen Roberts 47
• State Senate District 20 Democratic: Dave Ruchman 54, Cheri Jahn 46

Now it’s time to wait for the results and see exactly how wrong I am.

Last week I was privileged with the opportunity to sit down and meet Dr. Michael Fallon, the Republican candidate for Colorado’s 1st Congressional District. For those in the know, that phrase typically evokes shrugs of apathy.

A Republican in the 1st CD? That covers the heart of Denver. The city has been represented by the tag team of Lefty Democratic icons Pat Schroeder and Diana DeGette for a combined 37 years. Republicans has held the office for a total of one two-year term since 1946. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, only 49 of 435 Congressional Districts are considered more heavily Democratic.

But don’t think for a moment that deters the 45-year-old Fallon.

“Diana DeGette is out of touch with the district,” the GOP candidate pointedly remarked at the Lakewood Starbucks where we met. There is some evidence out there to bolster his case and give shreds of hope. A Magellan Strategies survey performed two months ago among a representative sample of CD1 voters show the incumbent with unimpressive favorability and job approval ratings at 48 percent. DeGette’s voting record very closely mirrors Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s: 99.2 percent of the time, by the Washington Post‘s count.

Michael Fallon is on a mission, criss-crossing the district with a team of volunteers wearing their walking shoes. Focusing primarily on unaffiliated voters, who make up 30 percent of CD 1 (Democrats are more than 50 percent and Republicans less than 20 percent), he has carried his message of job growth, low taxes, spending discipline and transparency to thousands of doors so far. Fallon believes he can tap into angst among some fiscally conservative Democrats.

Denver’s Republican candidate for D.C.’s Capitol Hill also leans a bit on populist themes of what’s fair for the country should be fair for Congress — whether it’s social security or health insurance plans. “Congress has lost direction on both sides of the aisle,” Fallon observed of the fiscal recklessness emanating from the Beltway, willing to give his own party its fair share of the jabs. “Republicans started it, Democrats perfected it.” (more…)

One of Colorado’s best and hardest-working people in new media has gone pro. Michael Sandoval, originally an innovative and successful blogger at Slapstick Politics and more recently managing editor of People’s Press Collective, is now on the Colorado 2010 election beat for National Review Online.

His first posting helps to get a national audience up to speed on our state’s U.S. Senate race. (By the way, thanks to Michael, for the incoming link.) Here’s guessing he’s not itching to provide similar treatment of Colorado’s roller-coaster gubernatorial campaign.

Anyway, over the next few months I look forward to good original reporting and more insightful analysis from NRO’s home-grown Colorado correspondent. And I encourage my readers to bookmark his page for important updates.

For what it’s worth, if you want a glimpse of the public mindset concerning 16 major institutions in American society, you should check out the new Gallup survey (H/T Mike Antonucci). The following are some salient observations on how favorably Americans view the 16 major institutions: (more…)

Last night I decided the mail-in ballot had been sitting too long on my counter, so I went ahead and filled in the bubbles. Time to drop it off now, and contribute my two cents to Colorado’s Republican primary election 2010. Without further ado, here are the decisions I arrived at personally, with some explanation as needed, followed by my predictions: (more…)

Editor’s note: The following are the views of my co-blogger Randy Ketner, aka Night Twister, from Larimer County, and do not necessarily reflect my own views.

Like most registered voters in Colorado, I received my Primary Election ballot in the mail last week. Ballots are due by August 10, but I’ve already made my decisions so I’ll be mailing it in tomorrow. There are only 4 competitive races on my primary ballot. I’ll start with the only Federal race, and move to State and Local races afterwards: (more…)

On Saturday night I watched in dread as Magglio Ordonez slid into home plate, was tagged out… but never got up. Quickly confirmed to have a fractured ankle, he had to be aided off the field. The number three hitter in my Detroit Tigers lineup, swinging the bat well again after a forgettable 2009, gone for 6 to 8 weeks (2B Carlos Guillen landed on the 15-day disabled list after the same game). A mere matter of days before the non-waiver trade deadline. A season that on the cusp of the All-Star break looked like it could be promising… you can just about write it off now.

A month ago relief pitching sensation Joel Zumaya broke his arm and finished his season while pitching against Minnesota. Less than a week ago third baseman Brandon Inge broke his hand on an inside pitch. With some key rookies providing unexpected contributions, it looked like the Tigers could weather the storm enough with a trade deadline pick-up to make the final piece. Hard to see how that can happen now, at least not without mortgaging away a much more promising future.

Dare I say it, but my Colorado Rockies haven’t looked much better of late. Ubaldo is off his game, the effect of Troy Tulowitzki being out of the lineup for weeks now taking its toll, and the post-break road trip couldn’t end soon enough. Too many holes in the lineup. Inconsistency from the bullpen. Can they catch enough fire to make up lost ground in the NL West race come September? I’m beginning to have my doubts.

For the Tigers and Rockies, if things continue to falter, there is always 2011. But need I go into the trainwreck-like spectacle that is the governor’s race in Colorado? “There’s always 2014….” (more…)

The Ken Buck for U.S. Senate campaign has released a new poll conducted by Magellan Strategies that shows little has changed in his race since June. The top line result indicates voter preference for Buck over Jane Norton by the margin of 46-37.

Last month Buck led Norton 42-32. As expected, the share of undecided GOP primary voters has shrunk over the past six weeks. Interestingly, the Weld County DA has a 20-plus point lead among voters ages 18 to 44, but his edge is in single digits among older voters.

The only other change of note is a slightly better move in favorable ratings for Jane Norton. In June, the former lieutenant governor had a 37 favorable / 31 unfavorable rating. In the new poll her respective ratings are 45 / 34. Norton has gone from a +6 to a +11 in favorability, a small positive bump. Buck still has the true advantage in image among voters at 52 / 23 (up from 39 / 13). (more…)

From National Review Online today:

Carole Jean Badertscher was a California nurse who just wanted to go to work and take care of her patients — but the SEIU was determined not to let that happen. The union’s contract with Badertscher’s employer, the Pomona Valley Hospital Medical Center, had expired, and the union had called a strike in response. Badertscher and other nurses, unwilling to abandon their patients for the sake of a stronger SEIU hand in contract negotiations, resigned from the union and went to work. In turn, she was threatened by the union bosses, who promised to have her prosecuted under California’s antique professional-strikebreaker statute, which was long ago pre-empted by federal law. Badertscher and other nurses were told that they would be fined and could be thrown in jail for months.

But there was more at stake in the case for the SEIU than the right to bully nurses in the Pomona Valley. The SEIU local had also informed hospital employees that they were legally required to keep paying union dues…. (more…)

Next weekend is the annual Right Online conference, sponsored by the Americans for Prosperity Foundation. Specifically, it will be held Friday and Saturday, July 23-24, in Las Vegas. This is a great opportunity for conservatives who want to learn how they can help neutralize the advantage the Left has accrued in new media and online tools.

A lineup of great speakers is on tap — including members of Congress Mike Pence and Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, John Fund, Judge Andrew Napolitano, and more. Registration is still open.

I’m not able to make the trip (family reasons), which depending on your perspective might be all the more reason to go. But definitely give it a close look and find a great excuse to make a summertime visit to Vegas and learn how to make a difference at the same time.

Joshua has a great rundown of this past weekend’s Western Conservative Summit. I was there for most of the day on Saturday, but unfortunately not able to catch the festivities of Friday evening or Sunday morning. Judging especially by the descriptions of the Michelle Bachmann and Arthur Brooks presentations, I regret missing them most of all.

The personal highlight for the lovely Mrs. Virtus and I was the opportunity to hear Dennis Prager’s enlightening and insightful address. He brings a lot of well-stated wisdom to the table, along with a genuine self-deprecating humor that endears him to the crowd. Even having heard his American Trinity discussed before, the speech never lost my attention. It was an excellent evening.

A very special thank-you goes out to John Andrews of the Centennial Institute for including the Rocky Mountain Alliance as an event co-sponsor and for inviting our participation. I didn’t expect to be summoned onto the stage before the Prager speech — along with the new media crew of Joshua, El Presidente, Kelly Maher (her site recently had a makeover) and Amanda Teresi — but the additional blog exposure is always appreciated. And it added to the evening’s enjoyment. (more…)

My good friend Amanda from Liberty on the Rocks is at it again, this time asking our appointed U.S. Senator Michael Bennet where he stands on the union card check issue:

Michael Bennet has been stuck in indecision on the union card check issue almost since the day he was appointed to office a year and a half ago. Maybe the junior senator figured he doesn’t have to answer the question because he cast a backdoor vote for card check via the Craig Becker nomination back in February — but still losing some Big Labor backing to his primary rival Andrew Romanoff.

At least by that time next year we have good reason to hope Bennet won’t have to worry any more about constituents pestering him for his opinion on such issues. Leaving behind public office for private life has a way of adding to one’s solitude.

Ben DeGrow is a Contributing Author at People’s Press Collective, Your Source for Colorado Politics.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that the Colorado Education Association (CEA) — the state’s largest teachers union — is not exactly likely to endorse a Republican candidate in a statewide election. Last week the union sent out an email to its members that began:

About 20 Association members, representing 40,000 fellow members, recently interviewed candidates for Colorado’s U.S. Senate seat. These members decided that CEA should wait until the August 10 Primary Election to recommend a U.S. Senate candidate to our members.

The process these members used was to invite all the declared candidates in both major political parties to complete written questionnaires about public education issues and appear for personal interviews. The interview team invited Sen. Michael Bennet (D), the incumbent; Andrew Romanoff (D); Ken Buck (R); and Jane Norton (R). Bennet and Romanoff participated fully in our questionnaire-interview process, but the Republican candidates declined to do so.

Guided by this process, the interview team declared that both Democratic candidates are strong supporters of public education and our Association’s positions on education issues – and that our Association will wait until August 10 and then recommend the candidate who wins the Democratic Primary.

I contacted the Jane Norton campaign to see what they had heard from the CEA and what their response was. They didn’t remember receiving a questionnaire, but said they “were asked to attend a PAC interview.” The only reason I decided to write this up was the colorfully crafted response of Norton spokesman Josh Penry: (more…)

The Rocky Mountain Alliance of Blogs (of which I am a member) and People’s Press Collective (to which I am a contributor) — not to mention the Independence Institute where I work — are all among many co-sponsors of the upcoming First Annual Western Conservative Summit on July 9 to 11 in the south metro Denver area.

Put this one on your calendars. There is a fantastic and diverse collection of speakers slated to come, including: (more…)

I’m not the only one who has noticed the apparent desperation from the Jane Norton campaign. Fellow RMA and PPC blogger Don Johnson, frequently criticized for showing favoritism to the former lieutenant governor, now says that a Norton victory would make her “the miracle candidate of the year.” Among other things, Johnson describes a newly released Norton campaign poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (POS), showing their candidate with a 39-33 lead as “unbelievable.”

On Tuesday afternoon, upon invitation from the Norton campaign, I joined their press teleconference to discuss the results of this poll — which contradicts recent polls from Magellan and SurveyUSA showing Buck with double-digit leads. (While Nate Silver’s numbers rank SurveyUSA as the third most accurate political polling firm out of 63, POS rates 60th. The in-state firm Magellan was not included.)

As articulated by Norton campaign spokesman Josh Penry, the POS poll assumes greater participation in the August primary because of high Republican voter intensity and a mail-in ballot election. Simply put, Norton’s numbers indicate the broader the electorate, the greater share of votes she gets. (more…)