Mount Virtus

The midterm elections are more than a week past in the rearview mirror. Time to stop navel-gazing and focus on the future. In that spirit, I wanted to pass on the link to a survey for serious Colorado Republicans. One of the next is choosing leadership for the state party, as the central committee is scheduled to convene in a few months.

Make your opinion known of what qualities and characteristics will be important in the next Colorado Republican Party state chair. I look forward to seeing the results of the survey.

A full week has passed since the Election. We all know the results. For the winners it’s transition time. New members headed off to Congress — at least one pegged with a remarkably bright political future. I’m proud to see a new secretary of state in Colorado, a new state treasurer, not to mention the “Mighty Six” GOP upstarts who took over formerly Democratic seats to reclaim the state house majority.

But what about those Colorado Republican candidates who threw their hats into the ring, who entered the arena and did battle, yet came up short? Some of them we won’t see on the electoral stage again (in some cases, thankfully). For others, a potentially bright political future remains. Here are a few: (more…)

Today marks the end of an era. The state employee who started the non-union group ColoradoLoses as an answer to Colorado WINS, the union coalition outgoing Governor Bill Ritter invited into Denver by executive order in 2007. Dave Ohmart posted the announcement on his website earlier today:

I am shutting ColoradoLoses down. Thaks so much for the support you showed me over the past two and a half years.

WINS will be shutting down too, I believe. They have lost support and are near bankruptcy.

I don’t have any independent information to confirm or challenge Dave’s assessment and prediction. But it’s important to note that Colorado WINS (a joint coalition of SEIU, AFSCME and AFT) did gain its semi-exalted bargaining position, after Ritter’s signed order, largely as a result of tremendous apathy among state employees. Speaking of apathy, Dave also noted in an email announcement sent this evening:

I wanted to force a petition to demand a new vote. I needed over 2,000 signatures and after 5 weeks only got 130. I have received none in over a week. That tells me that state employees are not interested in my efforts…so I’m closing shop. The website is empty except for the closing statement and it will be down soon.

What will incoming Democratic governor John Hickenlooper do vis a vis Colorado WINS and the Ritter executive order? Probably nothing. Unlike his major opponents, he made no promises to repeal the order. But if Dave is correct, the point largely is moot. We’ll have to wait and see.

As pointed out on the Denver Post blog, Colorado’s new majority Republican state house caucus is proceeding with leadership elections tomorrow. At 10 AM, to be precise. Colorado Democrats have protested, saying not all the decisive races have been resolved to their satisfaction. Sure, I appreciate it’s hard to accept being in the minority after the past six years on top. But looking at the situation clearly, it’s extremely difficult to see how any of the close races left will shift in either direction.

Why? Well, for one, Republican challenger Bob Boswell is more likely to surmount his deficit against Greeley Rep. Jim Riesberg than outgoing Democrats Dianne Primavera or Debbie Benefield are to hold on to their seats. (And the deficits of two Adams County GOP challengers — Tom Janich and Brian VanDeKrol — are roughly the same.) In other words, it’s not presumptuous at all for the GOP to proceed in accordance with tradition as the majority party.

Chatting with me by phone this afternoon, presumptive incoming House Speaker Frank McNulty (R-Highlands Ranch) expressed his satisfaction with the outcome of Tuesday’s state house races. “I’m pleased,” he said. “We knew that it was going to be tight, that it was going to be tough. We saw margins closing toward the end. The credit really goes to our candidates, who knocked on doors, who spent time away from their families to go to all the townhall events and pancake breakfasts.”

McNulty not only gave credit to the victorious Libby Szabo, Robert Ramirez, Don Beezley, Keith Swerdfeger, Kathleen Conti and Mark Barker, but also to other candidates who made their victories possible. The incoming Republican leader specifically cited Denver’s Danny Stroud (HD 1) and Christine Mastin (HD 3), who came up short but helped to force Democrats to “fall back to their fire line.” I asked if the pair should be considered unsung heroes. McNulty insisted they should be “sung heroes.” Kudos to them and to others who ran vigorous campaigns but came up short. (more…)

Although it’s not crucial to winning the majority in the state senate — the Democrats have held on — it seems like we have a small dispute over the actual standing of the race in District 16, where conservative Republican Tim Leonard and liberal Democrat Jeanne Nicholson are locked in a close count. Lynn Bartels reported at 10:30 this morning in the Denver Post (H/T Complete Colorado):

And in a multi-county seat stretching from the western suburbs to mountain towns, Democrat Jeanne Nicholson was up by six votes over Republican Tim Leonard, according to a tweet from Sen. Morgan Carroll, D-Aurora.

A Tweet? Could we use some real confirmation, please? Outlets like 9News and The Denver Channel (Bartels’ own Denver Post election results page is giving me fits) show Leonard with a 372 vote advantage.

And then a little while ago an email went out from Leonard to his supporters, which included:

…Before we embark on changing the world, we need to be vigilant on our upcoming recount. As of this morning, I am 443 votes ahead.

Since this is now less than a .5% difference, there may be a recounting with all the provisional and military ballots before a winner is declared in 8 days. [emphasis added]

Military ballots will break for Leonard. And based on this news from CBS4, there’s legitimate reason to figure provisional ballots will also help rather than hurt.

Wishful thinking by Lynn Bartels, perhaps? I’m guilty of my share of wishful thinking, so I can recognize it fairly well. Bartels’ coverage has shown she isn’t exactly a big fan of Tim Leonard. That’s fine. But seriously? A tweet from a Democratic state senator reported as news while actual results are omitted?

Colorado Republicans will take all the races they can get at this point, with or without wishful thinking.

There are still outstanding ballots, and so the final tabulated results are not yet in. But what’s being reported in the unofficial results indicates that Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes has secured more than 10.0% of the vote. Fears based on the latest round of polls that Maes would land in single digits didn’t materialize. And some pundits (myself included) are humbled again on the high-profile races.

The U.S. Senate showdown remains up in the air with some late counties, as well as military and provisional ballots outstanding, (despite the Denver Post jumping the gun). But Republicans have consoled themselves so far by winning the Secretary of State and Treasurer offices, along with John Suthers holding on as Attorney General. And while several races remain uncalled this morning, the GOP looks like they have won a narrow majority in the state house and are holding on to faint hopes of taking the state senate.

Besides the obvious (i.e., the governor’s race), disappointments for conservatives include the relatively close loss of Amendment 63 (the right to health care choice) and the wider-margin defeat of the Clear the Bench Colorado campaign to unseat three state supreme court justices.

Election Day is over. And yet it’s not all over. Stay tuned for the last results to be made official.

I am providing Election Night coverage here, including quotes and photos as available. I am working with a collaborative of organizations on this project — including Independence Institute, People’s Press Collective, Complete Colorado, Who Said You Said, Mothers Against Debt and National Review Online. Go here for the relevant details (including links and a live video feed), and stay tuned for the best in Colorado grassroots conservative political coverage!

11:55 PM: Jefferson County is counting provisional ballots in the Ramirez race, and according to his campaign manager Walt Blankenship it’s overwhelmingly working in the Republican’s favor. I’m feeling very confident that the GOP will win the state house. It remains to be seen whether a recount will be avoided, but it’s looking unlikely. As for the state senate, it now hinges on District 11 and Owen Hill’s race, who currently trails by 100 votes. In other words, nothing in the state legislature will be decided clearly before most of the people here go to bed. Finally, Walker Stapleton just a few moments ago joined Scott Gessler as statewide victors. In fact, Stapleton learned for sure he would be the new state treasurer while I was interviewing him for the People’s Press Collective. Look for the footage later.

11:15 PM: Ramirez (HD 29) has expanded his lead, which makes a GOP majority in the state house look more likely. Some are still holding out hopes for Bob Boswell in HD 50 to add to the majority. Still nothing definitive.

10:30 PM: I’m hearing now that it looks like the Robert Ramirez results in House District 29 are final, which if they survive the possible recount would mean a Republican majority in the state house.

10:25 PM: Make that 5 state house seats, not 4, gained by the Republicans. One away from a majority. Meanwhile, let me get it off my chest: I was wrong about Colorado’s U.S. Senate race. It’s going to be a real nail-biter.

10:15 PM: At long last, after lending a power cord to the Republican state house staff and doing a Backbone America radio interview, I’m back to blogging again from the Republican state legislative war room. It looks like the GOP has picked up four seats already (Libby Szabo, Keith Swerdfeger, Don Beezley, Mark Barker) and may have a couple more coming their way. A net gain of six equals a majority. On the state senate side, a net-two gain so far with a possiblity of a net-four gain and the majority.

8:00 PM: Reporting on Colorado’s statewide races leaves a very murky picture at this point. The Denver Post election results have been down awhile, and some of the aggregate results from 9News don’t seem to fit with results being reported by the counties. This may be a long night after all. I will report back later on from a different location.

7:25 PM: Early voting trends from Jefferson County, more than 150,000 from one of Colorado’s bellwethers, might give Republicans some pause: Bennet 48, Buck 46; Hickenlooper 51, Tancredo 42, Maes 6

6:53 PM: On video, Kelly Maher shows how it’s easier to vote in Denver than to get a library card.

6:45 PM: Michael Sandoval reports Colorado’s first election-related legal challenge may be underway, as Arapahoe County apparently has run out of provision ballots.

6:15 PM: After panicky emails sent out from the Democratic campaigns of John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet, and the Lefty activists at Progress Now, about lower than expected voter turnout on their side, cautious optimism is creeping in. I’m starting to believe Tom Tancredo just might be able to pull it off. We’ll wait and see. I’ll check back in from the Libby Szabo election party.

So if the Denver Post insists that a “recount looms” in Colorado’s U.S. Senate race, why do I predict that Ken Buck will defeat appointed incumbent Michael Bennet by four points? What makes me so confident that my prognostication is more accurate than the hype?

On The Spot blog, Post political editor Curtis Hubbard lists the most recent polls from the seven different major firms tracking this race, along with the New York Times blog prediction, listed as follows from most recent to oldest: (more…)

ELECTION DAY NOTE: I will be providing Election Night coverage here, including quotes and photos as available. I am working with a collaborative of organizations on this project — including Independence Institute, People’s Press Collective, Complete Colorado, Who Said You Said, Mothers Against Debt and National Review Online. Go here for the relevant details (including a live video feed), and stay tuned for the best in Colorado grassroots conservative political coverage!

Update, 9:00 AM: Despite all appearances, the latest Fox News/Public Opinion Research poll and I did not crib answers off each other. If we’re both off the mark, we’re off the mark together.

Update II, 12:30 PM: Minor tweak to the governor’s race predictions.

Following the most bizarre and unpredictable political campaign season in recent memory, I’ve decided to do the unthinkable and venture some predictions on results. Please note that I am venturing educated guesses with my head, not my heart. (If you want to get involved in some of the action yourself, Rossputin is hosting a general election prediction game.) Now without further ado, first the Colorado statewide races: (more…)

After seeing deeply flawed and failed Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes “get biblical” on Facebook (H/T Complete Colorado), I had a late-night moment of “inspired” political satire that ended up as this. Please enjoy: (more…)

Despite the massive negative advertising campaigns and attempts to distract the voters with other issues, a major point that weighs on voters is what candidates want to do vis a vis federal government spending. Nowhere is this concern more salient than in the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Buck and appointed Democrat incumbent Michael Bennet (trying to hide his allegiance to President Obama’s agenda from Colorado voters).

You and I may not have time to analyze the details of how the respective candidates’ proposals will affect the already bloated federal budget and the debt my children already face, but the National Taxpayers Union (NTU) has done the work for us. Here’s the basic breakdown:

• Ken Buck’s total agenda would reduce net spending by $1.405 billion, a modest start in the right direction — though as the Heritage Foundation has shown, there is room to cut $343 billion from next year’s budget
• On the other hand, Michael Bennet’s total agenda would increase net spending by $7.345 billion, more of the same bad policy medicine we can’t afford

That’s a projected difference of $8.5 billion, frankly not a lot in the scheme of the mammoth federal budget but an indicator nonetheless of some key differences on a major issue. Thanks to NTU for at least clearing up matters a bit.

Update, 10/29: Jessica Corry has a more thorough take on the topic in her latest Huffington Post column. She writes: “Shame on Cary Kennedy, now revealed to be just another typical career politician who will do anything to save her job.” Read the whole thing.

It’s the last week in October. A pro-Republican Tea Party wave is coming through Colorado and the nation, carrying away Democrat officials who broke faith by pouring on their Progressive policies, spending your money recklessly and racking up debt. Some Democrats are more out of touch than others.

For state treasurer Cary Kennedy, there has been her revealing moment of wanting to “drive a stake through” your constitutional taxpayer protections. But generally she has projected a moderate image, even as she often goes to bat for the liberal team.

There is a very real threat that the wave will carry Cary away and that a more fiscally conservative Republican Walker Stapleton — with real-life private sector business experience — will carry the day. Stapleton has a small but genuine lead in the polls heading into Election Day. That’s when you know it’s Democrat Desperation Time. (more…)

The desperate silly season of electoral politics is upon us. Nowhere does the silliness and desperation resound more than from the campaign of an out-of-touch liberal Congressional incumbent in the fight for his political life. Look no further than my home district, Colorado’s 7th, where Congressman Ed Perlmutter has fired a wild miss:

Incumbent Democrat Rep. Ed Perlmutter has hit an all-time low in a desperate attempt to keep his fading political career alive. His latest attack ad wrongly criticizes Ryan Frazier for missing half of his volunteer board meetings at High Point Academy, the public charter school Frazier co-founded. Perlmutter’s attack ad has even disappointed the Board President of High Point Academy, Brandon Wyszynski.

(more…)

For those still wondering how third-party conservative gubernatorial candidate Tom Tancredo is more likely to govern — at least when the choice is between showing support and loyalty to a highly qualified and credible Republican or an American Constitution Party spoiler — it was encouraging to see today’s release: (more…)

Update, 10/25: Casting further doubt on the Denver Post / SurveyUSA poll is today’s release from the Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling, which finds Hickenlooper up 47-44 over Tancredo, with only 5 percent in the Maes camp. This poll was conducted after both Magellan and SurveyUSA — from Thursday, October 21, to Saturday, October 23. (H/T Curtis Hubbard, The Spot)

On Friday conservatives were treated to the release of poll results from Magellan Strategies showing Tom Tancredo narrowly trailing John Hickenlooper 44-43 in the governor’s race. This morning readers opened up the Denver Post to see its SurveyUSA poll showing Hickenlooper with a 49-39 lead over Tancredo. In both polls Dan Maes is stuck at 9 percent.

The Magellan poll was conducted on Wednesday and has a margin of error plus/minus 3 points (1,067 likely voters). The SurveyUSA poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday with a margin of error plus/minus 4 points (621 likely voters). So we’re looking at the same time frame, but the margins of error don’t overlap. The rules of logic dictate that one of the two polls has to be wrong. In my estimation the Magellan results are closer to reality, not because they comport with my own wishes but for the following reasons: (more…)