The reliable in-state Magellan Strategies polling firm today released the results of last week’s voter interviews on Colorado statewide races. Taking the pulse of 954 likely voters, they found not surprisingly that John Hickenlooper has a wide lead over Republican Dan Maes (and an even wider lead over third-party Tom Tancredo) — though some small amount of Hick’s support may have been eroded in the intervening few days before the latest Rasmussen poll was taken.

But I’m more interested in bringing attention to the down-ticket races, which Magellan features in its top line results, as follows:

• Republican Attorney General John Suthers holds a commanding 47-32 lead over Democratic challenger Stan Garnett
• Democratic State Treasurer Cary Kennedy trails GOP challenger Walker Stapleton by the modest margin of 42-38
• Appointed Democratic Secretary of State Bernie Buescher lags behind Republican rival Scott Gessler, 37-31

As is typical with these lower-profile, down-ticket races, a healthy share of undecideds (especially among unaffiliated voters) remains. But it seems more than reasonable at this point to say it’s a good year to run as a Republican in Colorado–unless your name is Dan Maes.

But a key reason why I wanted to bring attention to the down-ticket races is because the first head-to-head public survey of these races further belies the accuracy of the so-called Big Lie, er, Line on a certain local Lefty blog. It may be time for them to wake from their slumbers and update their results. In the meantime, please enjoy my amateur (and more accurate) attempt at election oddsmaking: (more…)

National Review Online’s Michael Sandoval breaks more news this afternoon by bringing our attention to a new Magellan Strategies poll of my own 7th Congressional District. Bottom line: Republican Ryan Frazier edges out incumbent Ed “Don’t Call Me Pelosi” Perlmutter, 40-39.

Some observations on the survey:

• The voter sample was 38 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican and 27 percent Unaffiliated, a reasonable model given expected high GOP voter intensity. If you weight the voting sample in line with actual active voter registrations (which would assume Democrats and independents are as enthused about voting this year as Republicans), Perlmutter still only leads 40-38. In other words, this race is absolutely a statistical tie.
• The incumbent is in rough shape to be tied with around 40 percent support two months before the election. Unlike the challenger Frazier who has 22-11 favorable-to-unfavorable and 60 percent name recognition, there’s very little room for Perlmutter to go up: 37 favorable, 39 unfavorable and nearly 97 percent name recognition. Expect the Democrat to step up the negative campaign forthwith.
• Among voters in Perlmutter’s home base of Jefferson County, Frazier maintains a 40-38 edge while outpolling the incumbent 43-36 in his own Arapahoe County backyard. Perlmutter narrowly wins the Democratic-leaning Adams County 41-37.
• In addition to the fact that 7th CD voters believe the country is on the wrong track by a 65-35 margin, they also substantially disapprove of Obama’s job performance (57-39) and have a strong negative opinion of Nancy Pelosi (61-28). Among CD-7 unaffiliated voters, 60 percent disapprove of Obama’s performance and 68 percent have a negative opinion of Pelosi.

The Denver Post‘s Curtis Hubbard takes note of the poll and remarks:

At a minimum, it’s worth keeping an eye on the 7th Congressional District race to gauge just how much momentum Republicans have this cycle.

To help understand why Frazier has built momentum in this race, check out the campaign’s YouTube page, and watch some of the clips from the recent Arvada Chamber of Commerce (“Arvada CC”) debate.

In the meantime, I won’t be holding my breath waiting for Colorado Pols to update their Big Lie, er, Line.

Compliments of the creative team at WhoSaidYouSaid, here’s a great new video with a candid response from Denver mayor and Colorado Democrat gubernatorial candidate John Hickenlooper:

According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Hickenlooper currently leads Republican Dan Maes, 41-33, with 3rd-party candidate Tom Tancredo picking up 16 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Hickenlooper and Maes are tied at 45.

My friends at R Block Party are putting on their second annual picnic tomorrow afternoon (Wednesday, August 25) as a fundraiser for state house candidates.

Many of you know I have devoted several postings to analyze this year’s showdown for the Colorado state house and Colorado state senate. Many of these races remain critically important even as they are outshone by higher-profile statewide races (and have become even more important in light of the folly that is the governor’s race in this state) — including the 22 candidates participating at R Block Party tomorrow. The state representatives of today also help form the bench for runs at higher office in the future.

The R Block Party’s second annual picnic includes a live and silent auction, baked goods sale, and of course, plenty of opportunities to write good old-fashioned checks directly to one or more of the candidates. If you can do only one tangible thing for the cause of limited, fiscally responsible government over the next few weeks, make it this event!

According to Americans for Tax Reform, today (Saturday, August 21) is Colorado’s official Cost of Government Day (the national Cost of Government Day was Thursday):

This is the day on which the average American has earned enough gross income to pay off his or her share of the spending and regulatory burdens imposed by government at the federal, state, and local levels.

The cost of government at all levels consumes about 64 percent of the average Coloradan’s gross income (compared to the national average of 63.41 percent). There’s a less-than-inspiring thought for the day. If that doesn’t help focus your energies on advancing liberty and limited government for the upcoming fall elections, I’m not sure what will.

Update, 8/21: Lynn Bartels’ story in today’s edition of the Post fills out a little bit more detail and gives more attention to both the major party candidates… including a lede that identifies Perlmutter’s Bush-bashing blameshifting (which makes the headline above obsolete). Guess the blog focus on the Libertarian candidate was supposed to be the teaser for today’s story (?). I also was promised some video footage from the Frazier campaign, and will post that here when it arrives.

This morning featured the first showdown of Colorado 7th Congressional candidates at a chamber of commerce-sponsored debate. It was practically in my backyard, but who has $20 or more to swing for such luxuries?

The only coverage of the debate I’ve found is from the Denver Post‘s Lynn Bartels. With her former fave Lang Sias out of the 7th CD race, guess whom Bartels ended up showering the most attention on? Not rising Republican star Ryan Frazier. Not incumbent Pelosi Democrat Ed Perlmutter. Who then?

If you guessed Libertarian Buck Bailey (without reading the blog post), you win tonight’s star prize: a self-congratulatory pat on the back and a warm heaping helping of self-esteem. Taking nothing else into account, one is left to infer from the Post‘s coverage that the exchange between the two major party candidates was somewhat less than interesting. (I mean, I’m sure Mr. Bailey is a nice guy and everything….)

But the Ryan Frazier campaign had a different take. Full press release from his campaign below the fold: (more…)

Republican state senate candidate Owen Hill was blindsided yesterday by a Colorado Springs Gazette story with fabricated claims that Hill plagiarized statements off his Libertarian opponent’s website. A friend of mine, quoted in the story, does his job of defending his Party’s position and candidate, but issued his quote carefully:

“My understanding is, from Doug, that Doug had written the stuff, and he noticed it was on his opponent’s website and was not pleased with that discovery,” said David K. Williams Jr., chairman of the Libertarian Party of Colorado. [emphasis added]

Essentially hearsay.

Unfortunately, the Gazette opted for a sensational he said / he said story rather than perform a little basic investigation. Owen Hill’s campaign did the homework for the reporter showing that Hill’s statements were posted on his blog in January, months before the Libertarian even had declared as a candidate or put up a website. (more…)

On his Facebook page, just a few minutes ago J.J. Ament published a concession to Walker Stapleton in Colorado’s Republican state treasurer primary:

… would like to thank the countless volunteers across the state who made this a competitive race and I wish Walker all the best in defeating Cary Kennedy in November.

At this hour the Denver Post reports with 77 percent reporting that Walker Stapleton has a 50.7-49.2 lead over Ament. Not to toot my own horn, but I did predict that Stapleton would beat Ament 51-49. Hey, I had to nail one race right on, didn’t I?

Last week I was privileged with the opportunity to sit down and meet Dr. Michael Fallon, the Republican candidate for Colorado’s 1st Congressional District. For those in the know, that phrase typically evokes shrugs of apathy.

A Republican in the 1st CD? That covers the heart of Denver. The city has been represented by the tag team of Lefty Democratic icons Pat Schroeder and Diana DeGette for a combined 37 years. Republicans has held the office for a total of one two-year term since 1946. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, only 49 of 435 Congressional Districts are considered more heavily Democratic.

But don’t think for a moment that deters the 45-year-old Fallon.

“Diana DeGette is out of touch with the district,” the GOP candidate pointedly remarked at the Lakewood Starbucks where we met. There is some evidence out there to bolster his case and give shreds of hope. A Magellan Strategies survey performed two months ago among a representative sample of CD1 voters show the incumbent with unimpressive favorability and job approval ratings at 48 percent. DeGette’s voting record very closely mirrors Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s: 99.2 percent of the time, by the Washington Post‘s count.

Michael Fallon is on a mission, criss-crossing the district with a team of volunteers wearing their walking shoes. Focusing primarily on unaffiliated voters, who make up 30 percent of CD 1 (Democrats are more than 50 percent and Republicans less than 20 percent), he has carried his message of job growth, low taxes, spending discipline and transparency to thousands of doors so far. Fallon believes he can tap into angst among some fiscally conservative Democrats.

Denver’s Republican candidate for D.C.’s Capitol Hill also leans a bit on populist themes of what’s fair for the country should be fair for Congress — whether it’s social security or health insurance plans. “Congress has lost direction on both sides of the aisle,” Fallon observed of the fiscal recklessness emanating from the Beltway, willing to give his own party its fair share of the jabs. “Republicans started it, Democrats perfected it.” (more…)

For what it’s worth, if you want a glimpse of the public mindset concerning 16 major institutions in American society, you should check out the new Gallup survey (H/T Mike Antonucci). The following are some salient observations on how favorably Americans view the 16 major institutions: (more…)

Americans for Tax Reform is out with its annual Index of Worker Freedom this week. The idea is to look on a state-by-state basis to determine the extent of employee individual rights and freedoms in workplaces based on the laws and policies of their respective states.

ATR looks at whether a state has Right-to-Work laws, paycheck protection, what the share of public and private sector union membership is, etc. In December 2007, when the Index was first released, Colorado received an A-minus (MP3).

This year? (more…)

The Ken Buck for U.S. Senate campaign has released a new poll conducted by Magellan Strategies that shows little has changed in his race since June. The top line result indicates voter preference for Buck over Jane Norton by the margin of 46-37.

Last month Buck led Norton 42-32. As expected, the share of undecided GOP primary voters has shrunk over the past six weeks. Interestingly, the Weld County DA has a 20-plus point lead among voters ages 18 to 44, but his edge is in single digits among older voters.

The only other change of note is a slightly better move in favorable ratings for Jane Norton. In June, the former lieutenant governor had a 37 favorable / 31 unfavorable rating. In the new poll her respective ratings are 45 / 34. Norton has gone from a +6 to a +11 in favorability, a small positive bump. Buck still has the true advantage in image among voters at 52 / 23 (up from 39 / 13). (more…)

On Tuesday I shared an update of the state senate rankings and concluded that Republicans still have a good shot at recapturing the majority (at least before the Scott McInnis fiasco unfolded, the effect of which on down-ticket races remains to be seen). It’s time to update the state house rankings, and there are a few changes to report.

All 65 seats are up for election this fall, but only about 20 to 30 of the seats have a competitive challenger. Most of those seats currently belong to Democrats, and the Republicans — needing a net gain of six seats to hold a true majority — are poised to take advantage. Will the GOP win the majority? Possibly. As it stands now, the numbers suggest Republicans will pick up between 5 and 8 seats. Without further ado, here are the latest rankings of contested races, based on the likelihood of switching party control: (more…)

If I’ve been less than inspired to write much about the governor’s race recently, I’m too downright disgusted to follow it now. I’d rather focus in on a couple items following up on my latest projection of Colorado’s state senate races:

1. The top-rated race in the state, southwestern Colorado’s Republican primary in Senate District 6, took a strange turn this week. I was taken aback by a Rocky Mountain Right diary reporting that an obviously Left-leaning group known as “Colorado Outlook” is sending out mailers attacking conservative candidate Dean Boehler. The group is listed in the Secretary of State database registered under the name of Julie Wells, the bookkeeper for a large share of the Left-leaning, pro-Democrat, and union-founded political committees in our state. Here they are: (more…)

My state representative Sara Gagliardi is working overtime to try to project a fiscally conservative image in the upcoming election. The fact that the two-term Democrat has probably the most vulnerable seat in the state legislature in 2010 has more than a little to do with this truth-bending media campaign.

In the course of one week, Gagliardi has published two pieces in the local press to trump up her credentials. First, her July 1 column in the Arvada Press touts the representative’s co-sponsorship of HB 1119, aka the SMART Government Act, which she describes as providing “an innovative strategy to running our state using an approach called performance budgeting.”

The problem is the bill isn’t really that innovative. The Democratic leadership in the legislature killed HB 1126, which true performance budgeting would have required legislators to set real priorities and make tough budget decisions. At least HB 1119 is an okay piece of legislation, and not overtly harmful. For Gagliardi, it all goes downhill from there. (more…)

You rise out of nowhere and make a name for yourself running for the state’s highest office, and some (near) certainties will follow:

1. You will make some mistakes that set back your campaign … or maybe prove its demise; and
2. Others will go out of their way to try to bring you down, too.

I’m writing particularly of GOP candidate Dan Maes, whose longshot run for governor of Colorado has all but crashed on the rocks a month before primary election day. Maes would disagree with me vehemently, and I admire his persistence.

But the longer his race with front-runner and fellow conservative Scott McInnis drags on, the more voters expect something beyond the “insider” vs. “outsider” paradigm to make up their minds. And we know Maes is way behind in the polls.

I’m not prepared to go as far as Rossputin in his analysis, but the case he builds around the negative impact of Dan Maes’ serious campaign finance foibles is hard to dismiss. That’s point number one. (more…)

7News reporter Russell Haythorn has a great story today about a Denver proposal backed by Mayor John Hickenlooper to institute a “crash tax” on non-residents who cause traffic accidents on highways inside city limits:

Some say it would raise revenue, others say it’s a double-tax that would scare visitors away.

“It would seem to me to be a little bit stupid,” said Dan Trippie who was visiting from New York and rented a car to get around.

“I think that’s outrageous since I already pay taxes to work in Denver,” said Ellen Warp, who lives in Wheat Ridge and works in downtown Denver.

Go here to watch the video of the report.

Kudos to my Independence Institute colleague Todd Shepherd for cracking the lid on this story. One of his reports, which appeared recently in the Denver Daily News, provided some context to the Hickenlooper-backed Denver proposal: (more…)

Last night I posted a quick analysis on the fresh survey data on Colorado’s big-ticket 2010 political races. Down the ticket, state treasurer hopeful Walker Stapleton has a 10-point lead on J.J. Ament — who only a month ago won a resounding victory at the State Assembly. Having bypassed the assembly process, Stapleton successfully petitioned onto the ballot.

The big numbers: Stapleton 41, Ament 31, Undecided 28. And according to the crosstabs underneath, Stapleton lead (or at least is statistically tied) among all demographic groups — age, gender, race, region, etc. Even the pro-Tea Party voters narrowly picked Stapleton over Ament, 37-34.

“This poll clearly shows that our message is resonating with voters across Colorado. Voters don’t want another politician,” said Stapleton campaign spokesman Michael Fortney. “They want to elect someone with real business experience from the private sector to get our state back on track. (more…)

I was taken aback yesterday when I read this Grand Junction Sentinel column that sure made it sound like Colorado Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes favored a lack of transparency in public utilities rate disclosure. Both a Rocky Mountain Right diarist and fellow RMA/PPC blogger Don Johnson jumped over the comments to assail Maes’ views.

I called Dan Maes this morning to get some important clarification. Below are my three questions and his brief answers: (more…)

I was privileged Thursday with the opportunity to conduct a one-on-one phone interview with Congressman Mike Coffman, Republican from Colorado’s 6th CD.

As co-founder of the Balanced Budget Caucus on Capitol Hill, it’s not surprising that Coffman is heavily focused on the importance of this issue. “You have to take the power away from Congress,” he told me. “It certainly has worked in some states.”

Coffman continued that he is “amazed how much overhead there is in the federal bureaucracy. The majority of what we do here has nothing to do with our constitutional responsibilities. It seems like the federal government is involved in every level of government.” He believes the Balanced Budget Amendment will “force Congress to deal with its constitutional responsibilities.”

I agree with the Congressman that this Amendment is an important next step for Congress to take if there is to be any hope for fiscal discipline from Washington, D.C. The Amendment is an important piece, but it certainly isn’t the endgame.

Coffman has heard the objections that a Balanced Budget Amendment would open the door for some interest groups and politicians to demand higher taxes rather than cut wasteful spending and reduce the size and scope of the federal government. He says it’s worth the risk and that “it’s better to make the tough choices now,” especially given the unprecedented tide of popular sentiment for cutting spending and reducing debt. (more…)