But I’m more interested in bringing attention to the down-ticket races, which Magellan features in its top line results, as follows:

• Republican Attorney General John Suthers holds a commanding 47-32 lead over Democratic challenger Stan Garnett
• Democratic State Treasurer Cary Kennedy trails GOP challenger Walker Stapleton by the modest margin of 42-38
• Appointed Democratic Secretary of State Bernie Buescher lags behind Republican rival Scott Gessler, 37-31

As is typical with these lower-profile, down-ticket races, a healthy share of undecideds (especially among unaffiliated voters) remains. But it seems more than reasonable at this point to say it’s a good year to run as a Republican in Colorado–unless your name is Dan Maes.

But a key reason why I wanted to bring attention to the down-ticket races is because the first head-to-head public survey of these races further belies the accuracy of the so-called Big Lie, er, Line on a certain local Lefty blog. It may be time for them to wake from their slumbers and update their results. In the meantime, please enjoy my amateur (and more accurate) attempt at election oddsmaking:

Governor Line

(D) J. Hickenlooper (3-1): Living the charmed life when looming scandals should be weighing him down
(R) Dan Maes (15-1): Fear not, Colorado, your “Bike to Work” Day looks safe… very safe
(AC) T. Tancredo (50-1): Constitution Party just thrilled to be talked about… 20% of the vote and they’ll be in Nirvana, er, heaven

Senate Line

(R) Ken Buck (3-1): Being called “extreme” by the NY Times is a shining badge of honor in Colorado, don’t you know?
(D) Michael Bennet (7-1): Wearing Obama like a pair of cement shoes in the East River, and “nothing to show for it”

Treasurer Line

(R) W. Stapleton (4-1): All he has to do is mention 1,000 times that his opponent wants to “drive a stake in the heart of” your right to vote on tax hikes
(D) Cary Kennedy (6-1): Even with a pretty face, it’s a bad year to be an incumbent Democrat officeholder

Att. Gen. Line

(R) John Suthers (3-1): Has a tougher battle on his hands than originally anticipated, but the Health Care Choice issue works to his advantage
(D) Stan Garnett (8-1): Progress Now tries to stay relevant by helping the Boulder D.A. win statewide

S.O.S. Line

(R) Scott Gessler (4-1): In the best of years to run as a Republican, his smart campaign advertising affords him some positive momentum heading into November
(D) Bernie Buescher (6-1): Can we have the Ritter appointee explain again why it’s just so hard to send military ballots out on time?

CD-2 Line

(D) Jared Polis (2-1): A Democrat who fits his district well in a year that doesn’t bode well for his party
(R) Stephen Bailey (15-1): Yeah, he’s a longshot, but if you’re going to include CD-6…

CD-3 Line

(R) Scott Tipton (4-1): Good news for the state rep from Cortez — this isn’t 2006
(D) John Salazar (5-1): If you ignore teeny-tiny issues like his vote for Obama Care, you might be able to pretend that he’s not a Pelosi-style Democrat

CD-4 Line

(R) Cory Gardner (4-1): If you’re living in complete denial of the wave that’s coming and want to imagine him as the underdog, time to go back and play in the pixie dust
(D) Betsy Markey (9-1): One of the bigger questions remaining is how well she’ll wear the “one-term” label… time to bring out Dana Carvey as Bush 41

CD-7 Line

(D) Ed Perlmutter (4-1): Having drifted steadily Leftward since he took his seat in Congress, he’s beginning to find it’s a bad year to wear the label “Pelosi-mutter”
(R) Ryan Frazier (5-1): Joe Biden can tell you how hard it is to run against a “mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy”

A month ago relief pitching sensation Joel Zumaya broke his arm and finished his season while pitching against Minnesota. Less than a week ago third baseman Brandon Inge broke his hand on an inside pitch. With some key rookies providing unexpected contributions, it looked like the Tigers could weather the storm enough with a trade deadline pick-up to make the final piece. Hard to see how that can happen now, at least not without mortgaging away a much more promising future.

Dare I say it, but my Colorado Rockies haven’t looked much better of late. Ubaldo is off his game, the effect of Troy Tulowitzki being out of the lineup for weeks now taking its toll, and the post-break road trip couldn’t end soon enough. Too many holes in the lineup. Inconsistency from the bullpen. Can they catch enough fire to make up lost ground in the NL West race come September? I’m beginning to have my doubts.

For the Tigers and Rockies, if things continue to falter, there is always 2011. But need I go into the trainwreck-like spectacle that is the governor’s race in Colorado? “There’s always 2014….”

So many have weighed in. Many have sought me out and asked for my insights. I have turned to others to do the same. Every way I slice it, the reasonable side of me says the bad news is inevitable. My only comforting response: Who knows what could happen next? I know, not really that comforting. It hasn’t been easy in helping me to prepare for a presentation at this morning’s Jefferson County Republican Men’s Club, either.

We wanted a conservative — preferably of the clean, competent, principled and articulate variety — to occupy the governor’s office come 2011. After four years of Bill Ritter taxation and regulation, and the folly emanating from D.C., the political winds have been at our back. In spite of it all, the only end I see at the moment is failure, regret and disappointment.

Others have stated the clear case of why neither Scott McInnis nor Dan Maes is fit to win. I’m with them. I founded the “Undervote Colorado’s GOP Governor Primary” page on Facebook. Why? Maybe just to feel like I was doing something.

I have pored over all the theories and scenarios. Tom Tancredo’s threat of a third-party campaign is not welcome. Though I can appreciate what he says he is trying to do, the former Congressman is not the right man for the job and is only serving to foster division and alienation within the GOP and among conservatives. In short, he’s making a bad situation worse.

Of course, the state’s Republican establishment bears its hefty share of the blame for the mess in which we find ourselves. Who knows what it might take for them to learn their lesson? Maybe bringing the party down in a ball of flames and completely wasting a pristine opportunity.

That’s what I wish to prevent happening. Not for the sake of McInnis or Maes or Dick Wadhams or the powers that be, but for the cause of a principled and effective opposition within the state legislature and key statewide offices.

At this point, I don’t see a way to avoid having the charmed Hickenlooper occupy the Governor’s office. Meanwhile, Tancredo’s course of action threatens the resources, unity and volunteer corps needed to replace state treasurer Cary Kennedy and secretary of state Bernie Buescher, and more importantly undermine the chances for Republicans to win the state house and senate — as they have a fairly good chance to do this year.

If you care about the GOP, or you at least care about the effects of having one-party Democrat power in Colorado, then you should care about what this scenario means to the redistricting which is slated to occur after the 2010 election. If you care about limited government, fiscal conservatism and things like the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights or educational freedom, you should be upset that among a host of good, principled conservative state legislative candidates, some would fall prey to the effects of a split. (Please don’t do it, Tom!)

It’s not just a matter of electing John Hickenlooper. It’s also about helping to protect the Democratic majority in the legislature. Unintended consequences are just as real as the intended ones.

Notice the title I gave this post: desperate (not necessarily lost) causes. Hope springs eternal from Mount Virtus, in part because the alternative can be too much to bear. For one thing, don’t give up on everything political because of the governor’s race. Find at least one good state senate or state house candidate to support with your time and/or money. If nothing else, rebuilding the conservative Republican bench will help to avert future situations like we are in today.

That being said, the Monday drudgery arrives, and fortunately there are much bigger things in life to capture me. Baseball and politics are not life. Faith, family and friends remain. Thank God for real hope, for undying love, for sweet forgiveness, for the lessons grace has to teach me. Now onto that speech, and back into life.

A lineup of great speakers is on tap — including members of Congress Mike Pence and Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, John Fund, Judge Andrew Napolitano, and more. Registration is still open.

I’m not able to make the trip (family reasons), which depending on your perspective might be all the more reason to go. But definitely give it a close look and find a great excuse to make a summertime visit to Vegas and learn how to make a difference at the same time.

As promised, the survey on what Scott McInnis should do closed at 9:00 this morning. In all, there were 177 participants — including 173 registered voters, 93 percent of whom identify as Republicans and 7 percent of whom identify either as unaffiliated or third party (no Democrats participated). A brief summary of the survey results:

• 105 of 177 participants (59 percent) said McInnis should step down from the race, 42 (24 percent) said he should stay in the race and work it out and 30 (17 percent) said it’s too early to tell
• Asked which candidate they were inclined to support before the plagiarism story broke, 79 favored McInnis (45 percent), 62 favored GOP rival Dan Maes (35 percent), 6 favored Democrat John Hickenlooper (3 percent), and 28 opted for “Other/Undecided” (16 percent)
• Asked which candidate they now support after the story broke, 84 support Dan Maes (48 percent), 40 back McInnis (23 percent), 13 back Hickenlooper (8 percent), and 37 declare for “Other/Undecided” (21 percent)
• Asked which of three scenarios they think is most likely at this point, 78 said McInnis will lose the primary to Maes (45 percent), 54 said McInnis will win the primary but face certain defeat to Hickenlooper (31 percent) and only 41 said McInnis will win the primary and remain competitive in the general election (24 percent)

I will let the results speak for themselves. You can download an Excel spreadsheet of the summary results here. Let’s hope the McInnis camp is paying attention, but I’m not holding my breath. Anyway, they’re more likely to take heed of a professional pollster’s results on the question, as state party chair Dick Wadhams mentioned to Mike Rosen a little while ago that he believed Rasmussen was conducting a poll. And we all know that Rasmussen is a “heck of a bigger deal” than yours truly.

In any case, Scott McInnis has stated at least for now he plans to stay in the race and make things right with the Hasan Foundation, whose $300,000 project on water issues has been at the heart of the story. Among others, Ari Armstrong has speculated and commented on how McInnis plans to fix the situation.

Well, a new press release this morning from the Hasan Foundation identifies the terms it demands for restoration:

It is the finding of the Hasan Family Foundation Board that the work Congressman Scott McInnis performed under the Senior Fellowship was only a fraction of the work he was obligated to perform under the terms of his Fellowship. Of the little work that he did, he has admitted it was neither fully completed by him, nor fully original. In view of the public disclosure by Mr. McInnis as well as by Mr. Rolly Fischer, it is clear that Mr. McInnis has not fulfilled the terms of our agreement, and there is no need for any further investigation by the Foundation.

The Foundation demands he repay all monies paid to him under the Fellowship. The Foundation shall be making no further comment on the matter and will immediately return its full attention to the worthy causes it proudly funds and oversees.

McInnis responds:

I have said since this matter was brought to my attention that the articles provided as part of the Hasan Family Foundation fellowship were faulty. I explained how this problem arose, and I accepted responsibility.

I apologized to the Hasans for this mistake, and I expressed my determination to make it right with my dear friends. I will be in contact with the Hasan family to make full payment arrangements. I agree with the Foundation that this brings this matter to a close, and I look forward to continuing to speak on the campaign trail about the critical issues facing all of Colorado, including jobs and economic recovery.

Meanwhile, Dan Maes has a lot of questions to answer clearly before enough Republicans can trust him as their general election candidate. And given the fact so many questions remain unanswered after this long on the campaign trail, I believe we need to look beyond Maes and McInnis for another candidate. The conversations have already begun.

Recommended reading:
-David Harsanyi’s July 15 Denver Post column, “Oops, the GOP did it again”
-Rossputin, “So complicated I need a flow chart”

Today’s Denver Post editorial calls for Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis to drop out of the race due to “revelations of extensive plagiarism in work [he] claimed as his own.” While the Post has a quick Yes or No poll on its site to determine whether you agree with their editorial stance, I’m interested in a little more information. This morning I created a quick, 6-question, multiple choice survey to see what politically active and knowledgeable readers think should be done, and how it affects the state of the race.

Click here to take the survey

I will leave the survey open through tomorrow, Thursday, July 16, at 6 PM Mountain Time Friday, July 17, at 9 AM Mountain Time. As usual, participation in the survey is limited to one per IP address. Thank you for taking one minute to share your views.

Put this one on your calendars. There is a fantastic and diverse collection of speakers slated to come, including:

• Dennis Prager (if I didn’t list him first, the lovely Mrs. Virtus would let me hear about it)
• Michelle Malkin
• Dick Morris
• Rep. Michele Bachmann
• Lee Strobel
• Joseph C. Phillips
• …and more

The deadline to register is July 5. Costs range from $50 or $75 for individual meals to $150 to attend the whole weekend. You can find a complete schedule here.

I look forward to a good time, and hope to see you there!

A few highlights for your consumption:

• Ken Buck is a runaway winner in the U.S. Senate primary
• Dan Maes pulls in 50 percent, Scott McInnis about 30 percent and newcomer Joe Gschwendtner picks up a few votes
• Ryan Frazier, Cory Gardner and Scott Tipton remain clear frontrunners in their respective Congressional primary contests
• J.J. Ament has sown up a lot of support among the political die-hards in his bid for state treasurer

For all who persevered through the transition and technical difficulties to complete the survey (no, you didn’t sacrifice any more privacy than you do by using Facebook generally), thanks for your participation. Your feedback is welcome to improve the next version.

Update, High Noon: After a series of technical glitches this morning with the way the results were being displayed, the results page is down for the time being. Have no fear!

After a month off to accommodate the busy schedules of the survey operators and to allow for a format change and technical upgrade, the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature is back for May — a streamlined version of the familiar survey with a new platform and a new interface. Participating in the survey should take less time than ever.

We have moved the survey directly to Facebook, using some new application technology. Go here to take the survey.

And you can go here to check out the results.

Only one survey per Facebook user. The May survey will only be open through Saturday evening. It will be interesting to see before the upcoming Congressional and state assemblies what changes there are, if any, in the results from March right before caucus gatherings. Thanks for helping us test the new look of the survey and making your voice heard on important Colorado issues and candidates of the day.

Yes, the original plan was to launch the April edition today. But I and others have been busy, and — more importantly — the survey is undergoing a formal re-design to make it sleeker, quicker and easier to take, and more accessible to a wider audience, while retaining its basic substance. Look for the survey to be available all next week in a brand new venue.

Thanks for your interest in Colorado politics.

• Ken Buck Wins Majority of Votes, Widens Lead Over U.S. Senate Field
• 50 Percent Support Dan Maes, 50 Percent See Scott McInnis as Stronger
• Participants Still Suggest Bigger Numbers for Caucus Participation

Other bits from the survey:

• Survey-Takers Predict 5-Point Victory for Clear the Bench
• Underdogs Make Up Small Ground on CD7′s Ryan Frazier, CD3′s Scott Tipton
• Cory Gardner Still Strong in CD4, Stephen Bailey Tops in CD2
• J.J. Ament Holds Steady Atop Three-Way State Treasurer Field

Thank you to the more than 700 participants in the March edition of the survey — breaking our previous records for participation. The complete release of the survey results is below the fold (click “Fullscreen” for better view):

Survey Results Analysis 031510

Update, 3/8: With the news that CD 7 candidate Jimmy Lakey has withdrawn from the race (H/T Complete Colorado), his name has been removed as a possible selection on the relevant questions. I hope it wasn’t anything I said giving my off-the-cuff analysis of the CD 7 GOP primary last night as guest co-host on Backbone Radio.

Time flies, so here comes another edition of the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature. The deadline is next Friday, March 12, at 5:00 PM local Mountain time. What are you waiting for?

Click here to take the March survey

The March edition has even fewer issue statements, but adds attention to the 2nd Congressional race, and asks participants to predict the likelihood that Colorado Supreme Court justices will be retained or removed from office in November.

Results of the survey are scheduled to be released the day before Republicans across Colorado convene in their March 16 caucuses, which this year includes a preference poll of candidates in the governor’s and U.S. Senate primary races.

Throughout the 2010 election year, the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature will re-appear the 1st Thursday of each month. So once you complete this survey, you can start counting down the days until the April edition is unveiled [though in this case, due to the Easter holiday, the next survey is slated to launch on April 8, the 2nd Thursday of the month].

Check back here by Monday the 15th for March results. Meanwhile, here’s the official release announcing the new survey (as always, click “fullscreen” for a closer look):

Survey Launch 030410

• U.S. Senate: Ken Buck Still On Top, Norton and Tidwell Gaining
• Governor: Dan Maes Widens Support Edge Over Scott McInnis
• 3rd Congressional: Scott Tipton Tops Bob McConnell Twice
• 4th Congressional: Cory Gardner Still Stands Above the Field
• 7th Congressional: Ryan Frazier Remains without Rival
• State Treasurer: Ament’s Lead Grows, Hasan Takes Over 2nd
• Interest in GOP Caucus Participation Suggests Bigger Numbers for 2010

The complete release of the survey results is posted below the fold (click “Fullscreen” for better view):

Survey Results Analysis 021510

Time flies, so here comes another edition of the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature. The deadline is next Friday, February 12, at 5:00 PM local Mountain time. What are you waiting for?

Click here to take the February survey

The February edition has even fewer issue statements, but introduces some interesting new items:

• Polling questions and head-to-head matchup on the 3rd Congressional race to challenge Rep. John Salazar
• Questions about your plans to participate in the upcoming caucus and assembly process
• Detailed question about your sources of local political news and information

Throughout the 2010 election year, the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature will re-appear the 1st Thursday of each month. So once you complete this survey, you can start counting down the days until the March edition is unveiled.

Check back here by Tuesday the 16th for February’s results. Meanwhile, here’s the official release announcing the new survey (as always, click fullscreen for a closer look):

Survey Launch 020410

Click below for:

• Official January survey results
• Discussion of survey results on Face The State Weekend Radio

With very few guests, it should be a good three hours of enlightening discussion and entertaining political banter. Go here to listen live.