The reliable in-state Magellan Strategies polling firm today released the results of last week’s voter interviews on Colorado statewide races. Taking the pulse of 954 likely voters, they found not surprisingly that John Hickenlooper has a wide lead over Republican Dan Maes (and an even wider lead over third-party Tom Tancredo) — though some small amount of Hick’s support may have been eroded in the intervening few days before the latest Rasmussen poll was taken.

But I’m more interested in bringing attention to the down-ticket races, which Magellan features in its top line results, as follows:

• Republican Attorney General John Suthers holds a commanding 47-32 lead over Democratic challenger Stan Garnett
• Democratic State Treasurer Cary Kennedy trails GOP challenger Walker Stapleton by the modest margin of 42-38
• Appointed Democratic Secretary of State Bernie Buescher lags behind Republican rival Scott Gessler, 37-31

As is typical with these lower-profile, down-ticket races, a healthy share of undecideds (especially among unaffiliated voters) remains. But it seems more than reasonable at this point to say it’s a good year to run as a Republican in Colorado–unless your name is Dan Maes.

But a key reason why I wanted to bring attention to the down-ticket races is because the first head-to-head public survey of these races further belies the accuracy of the so-called Big Lie, er, Line on a certain local Lefty blog. It may be time for them to wake from their slumbers and update their results. In the meantime, please enjoy my amateur (and more accurate) attempt at election oddsmaking: (more…)

On Saturday night I watched in dread as Magglio Ordonez slid into home plate, was tagged out… but never got up. Quickly confirmed to have a fractured ankle, he had to be aided off the field. The number three hitter in my Detroit Tigers lineup, swinging the bat well again after a forgettable 2009, gone for 6 to 8 weeks (2B Carlos Guillen landed on the 15-day disabled list after the same game). A mere matter of days before the non-waiver trade deadline. A season that on the cusp of the All-Star break looked like it could be promising… you can just about write it off now.

A month ago relief pitching sensation Joel Zumaya broke his arm and finished his season while pitching against Minnesota. Less than a week ago third baseman Brandon Inge broke his hand on an inside pitch. With some key rookies providing unexpected contributions, it looked like the Tigers could weather the storm enough with a trade deadline pick-up to make the final piece. Hard to see how that can happen now, at least not without mortgaging away a much more promising future.

Dare I say it, but my Colorado Rockies haven’t looked much better of late. Ubaldo is off his game, the effect of Troy Tulowitzki being out of the lineup for weeks now taking its toll, and the post-break road trip couldn’t end soon enough. Too many holes in the lineup. Inconsistency from the bullpen. Can they catch enough fire to make up lost ground in the NL West race come September? I’m beginning to have my doubts.

For the Tigers and Rockies, if things continue to falter, there is always 2011. But need I go into the trainwreck-like spectacle that is the governor’s race in Colorado? “There’s always 2014….” (more…)

Next weekend is the annual Right Online conference, sponsored by the Americans for Prosperity Foundation. Specifically, it will be held Friday and Saturday, July 23-24, in Las Vegas. This is a great opportunity for conservatives who want to learn how they can help neutralize the advantage the Left has accrued in new media and online tools.

A lineup of great speakers is on tap — including members of Congress Mike Pence and Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, John Fund, Judge Andrew Napolitano, and more. Registration is still open.

I’m not able to make the trip (family reasons), which depending on your perspective might be all the more reason to go. But definitely give it a close look and find a great excuse to make a summertime visit to Vegas and learn how to make a difference at the same time.

Update, 12:30 PM: Scott McInnis provides an official response to Hasan Family Foundation. Scroll down to the bottom of this post.

As promised, the survey on what Scott McInnis should do closed at 9:00 this morning. In all, there were 177 participants — including 173 registered voters, 93 percent of whom identify as Republicans and 7 percent of whom identify either as unaffiliated or third party (no Democrats participated). A brief summary of the survey results: (more…)

Update: Upon further deliberation, I’ve decided to leave the survey open a little longer.

Today’s Denver Post editorial calls for Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis to drop out of the race due to “revelations of extensive plagiarism in work [he] claimed as his own.” While the Post has a quick Yes or No poll on its site to determine whether you agree with their editorial stance, I’m interested in a little more information. This morning I created a quick, 6-question, multiple choice survey to see what politically active and knowledgeable readers think should be done, and how it affects the state of the race.

Click here to take the survey

I will leave the survey open through tomorrow, Thursday, July 16, at 6 PM Mountain Time Friday, July 17, at 9 AM Mountain Time. As usual, participation in the survey is limited to one per IP address. Thank you for taking one minute to share your views.

The Rocky Mountain Alliance of Blogs (of which I am a member) and People’s Press Collective (to which I am a contributor) — not to mention the Independence Institute where I work — are all among many co-sponsors of the upcoming First Annual Western Conservative Summit on July 9 to 11 in the south metro Denver area.

Put this one on your calendars. There is a fantastic and diverse collection of speakers slated to come, including: (more…)

For those who are interested, the results of the May survey of Colorado’s political temperature are posted on Facebook. For a variety of reasons, including the transition to a new setting, participation in the survey is down significantly — leaving perhaps the most dedicated and passionate 117 conservative Colorado political Facebookers (half of whom say they plan to attend Saturday’s state GOP Assembly as either delegates or alternates) to chime in.

A few highlights for your consumption:

• Ken Buck is a runaway winner in the U.S. Senate primary
• Dan Maes pulls in 50 percent, Scott McInnis about 30 percent and newcomer Joe Gschwendtner picks up a few votes
• Ryan Frazier, Cory Gardner and Scott Tipton remain clear frontrunners in their respective Congressional primary contests
• J.J. Ament has sown up a lot of support among the political die-hards in his bid for state treasurer

For all who persevered through the transition and technical difficulties to complete the survey (no, you didn’t sacrifice any more privacy than you do by using Facebook generally), thanks for your participation. Your feedback is welcome to improve the next version.

Update II, 1:50 PM: A technical error in survey production resulted in accidentally omitting new gubernatorial candidate Joe Gschwendtner’s name as a possible selection for Q13 & Q14. I am pleased to report the issue has been fixed. If you want to vote for this candidate, you can go back in and re-take the quiz if necessary. The survey will capture only your latest answers: you still get only one vote. Apologies for the screw-up. Everything is back on track. We are working to remedy the results display issue, but for now everything about the survey itself is in proper working order.

Update, High Noon: After a series of technical glitches this morning with the way the results were being displayed, the results page is down for the time being. Have no fear!

After a month off to accommodate the busy schedules of the survey operators and to allow for a format change and technical upgrade, the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature is back for May — a streamlined version of the familiar survey with a new platform and a new interface. Participating in the survey should take less time than ever.

We have moved the survey directly to Facebook, using some new application technology. Go here to take the survey.

And you can go here to check out the results.

Only one survey per Facebook user. The May survey will only be open through Saturday evening. It will be interesting to see before the upcoming Congressional and state assemblies what changes there are, if any, in the results from March right before caucus gatherings. Thanks for helping us test the new look of the survey and making your voice heard on important Colorado issues and candidates of the day.

For the two or three of you who might be wondering, a quick update on the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature.

Yes, the original plan was to launch the April edition today. But I and others have been busy, and — more importantly — the survey is undergoing a formal re-design to make it sleeker, quicker and easier to take, and more accessible to a wider audience, while retaining its basic substance. Look for the survey to be available all next week in a brand new venue.

Thanks for your interest in Colorado politics.

On the eve of Colorado Republican caucus gatherings, which this year include a preference poll of statewide candidates (governor, U.S. Senate), here’s a possible glimpse ahead with the release of our March survey results from the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature. Major headlines:

• Ken Buck Wins Majority of Votes, Widens Lead Over U.S. Senate Field
• 50 Percent Support Dan Maes, 50 Percent See Scott McInnis as Stronger
• Participants Still Suggest Bigger Numbers for Caucus Participation

Other bits from the survey:

• Survey-Takers Predict 5-Point Victory for Clear the Bench
• Underdogs Make Up Small Ground on CD7′s Ryan Frazier, CD3′s Scott Tipton
• Cory Gardner Still Strong in CD4, Stephen Bailey Tops in CD2
• J.J. Ament Holds Steady Atop Three-Way State Treasurer Field

Thank you to the more than 700 participants in the March edition of the survey — breaking our previous records for participation. The complete release of the survey results is below the fold (click “Fullscreen” for better view): (more…)

This post will stick to the top until March 12. Please scroll down for newer postings.

Update, 3/8: With the news that CD 7 candidate Jimmy Lakey has withdrawn from the race (H/T Complete Colorado), his name has been removed as a possible selection on the relevant questions. I hope it wasn’t anything I said giving my off-the-cuff analysis of the CD 7 GOP primary last night as guest co-host on Backbone Radio.

Time flies, so here comes another edition of the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature. The deadline is next Friday, March 12, at 5:00 PM local Mountain time. What are you waiting for?

Click here to take the March survey

The March edition has even fewer issue statements, but adds attention to the 2nd Congressional race, and asks participants to predict the likelihood that Colorado Supreme Court justices will be retained or removed from office in November.

Results of the survey are scheduled to be released the day before Republicans across Colorado convene in their March 16 caucuses, which this year includes a preference poll of candidates in the governor’s and U.S. Senate primary races.

Throughout the 2010 election year, the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature will re-appear the 1st Thursday of each month. So once you complete this survey, you can start counting down the days until the April edition is unveiled [though in this case, due to the Easter holiday, the next survey is slated to launch on April 8, the 2nd Thursday of the month].

Check back here by Monday the 15th for March results. Meanwhile, here’s the official release announcing the new survey (as always, click “fullscreen” for a closer look): (more…)

Thank you to the more than 400 people who participated in the February 2010 Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature. A snapshot of the results in headlines:

• U.S. Senate: Ken Buck Still On Top, Norton and Tidwell Gaining
• Governor: Dan Maes Widens Support Edge Over Scott McInnis
• 3rd Congressional: Scott Tipton Tops Bob McConnell Twice
• 4th Congressional: Cory Gardner Still Stands Above the Field
• 7th Congressional: Ryan Frazier Remains without Rival
• State Treasurer: Ament’s Lead Grows, Hasan Takes Over 2nd
• Interest in GOP Caucus Participation Suggests Bigger Numbers for 2010

The complete release of the survey results is posted below the fold (click “Fullscreen” for better view): (more…)

Another year has come and gone. Today Mount Virtus is 6 years old, which perhaps puts me in the ranks of Colorado’s political blogging ancients. I have a few graying hairs to show for it. My blog’s 6th birthday also means 99 years ago today one of our greatest Presidents — Ronald Reagan — was born. It’s also Waitangi Day in New Zealand. But that’s neither here nor there.

This post will stick to the top until February 12. Please scroll down for newer postings.

Time flies, so here comes another edition of the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature. The deadline is next Friday, February 12, at 5:00 PM local Mountain time. What are you waiting for?

Click here to take the February survey

The February edition has even fewer issue statements, but introduces some interesting new items:

• Polling questions and head-to-head matchup on the 3rd Congressional race to challenge Rep. John Salazar
• Questions about your plans to participate in the upcoming caucus and assembly process
• Detailed question about your sources of local political news and information

Throughout the 2010 election year, the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature will re-appear the 1st Thursday of each month. So once you complete this survey, you can start counting down the days until the March edition is unveiled.

Check back here by Tuesday the 16th for February’s results. Meanwhile, here’s the official release announcing the new survey (as always, click fullscreen for a closer look): (more…)

This Sunday evening from 5 PM to 8 PM I will be guest co-hosting Backbone Radio on AM 710 KNUS with fellow bloggers Joshua Sharf and the Peoples Press Collective‘s Tom James (not only local bloggers, but Leadership Program of the Rockies Class of 2006 takes over).

With very few guests, it should be a good three hours of enlightening discussion and entertaining political banter. Go here to listen live.

Update, 9:00 PM: They fixed it. That’s responsive, same-day government service for you!

First of all, I have to commend to you the Secretary of State’s work in creating the new TRACER campaign finance website, which is a more user-friendly, valuable tool than its predecessor. On the lighter side, while it’s imperative for candidates and committees filling out important disclosures to cross their t’s and dot their i’s, someone should have checked on TRACER’s main page to ensure the same level of accuracy: (more…)

Are you a political junkie who is planning to tune in to tonight’s State of the Union address (9 PM Eastern / 7 PM local)? Why not have more fun by making it interactive? This sounds like a potentially interesting opportunity:

For those on or off the same political page, they are invited to participate in the NRCC’s live chat via SMS during President Obama’s State of the Union address.

To participate, consumers can text either keyword, SOTU or STATE, to the short code 777218.

After opting-in, consumers receive a text message that reads: “Thank you for participating in NRCC’s State of the Union Text Chat. Look here on Wednesday 1/27 for the link to participate.”

Several hours before the State of the Union address, consumers will receive chat instructions via text message: “Voice your opinion! Send ur comments as a message to 777218. View America’s response at www.nrcc.mobi. Don’t forget to refresh/reload the page to view more msgs. Txt help for help.”

Let’s see if the Republicans can pull it off. Let’s see if they listen. Let’s see if they can mobilize people around the agenda of rolling back the growing Federal leviathan, not just “freezing” it. Whatever they do, let’s represent Colorado in force.

Update, 1/25: If you missed me on the air this weekend, you can listen to a recording of the discussion on the Face The State website.

In most places across Colorado, you can tune in and listen this Saturday or Sunday to the Face The State Weekend Edition — locally, here in Denver on AM 710 KNUS on Saturday at 5 AM or Sunday at noon. During part of the show I will be discussing with host Brad Jones the latest results from the survey of Colorado’s political temperature — an independent project co-sponsored by People’s Press Collective managing editor Michael Sandoval and yours truly.

Introducing the detailed release of results from our January edition of the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature (click “Fullscreen” for best view):

January 2010 Colorado’s Political Temperature Survey Results

Thanks again to everyone who participated. And congratulations to our candidate winners this time around: Dan Maes, Ken Buck, Cory Gardner, Ryan Frazier and J.J. Ament.

Our plan is to work on some limited cross-tab analysis of these results. If you have any interest in any particular cross-tab (e.g., how did people vote in a particular race by age group?), please email me or leave the suggestions in the comment box by Tuesday night.

The 2010 survey of Colorado’s political temperature is in the books. A formal rollout of the top-line results is coming on Monday. But you can get a first glance throughout the evening as El Presidente highlights the raw results on People’s Press Collective.

Thanks to everyone who participated. With 714 participants, this is the most popular edition yet. Come back and make your voice heard again in February … Onward and upward for 2010!