Preferences and Prognostications: Colorado Republican Primary 2010

Last night I decided the mail-in ballot had been sitting too long on my counter, so I went ahead and filled in the bubbles. Time to drop it off now, and contribute my two cents to Colorado’s Republican primary election 2010. Without further ado, here are the decisions I arrived at personally, with some explanation as needed, followed by my predictions:

U.S. Senator: Ken Buck Not an easy choice at all. Initially I saw Jane Norton as the slightly better campaigner, and Buck as the slightly better senator. All the ridiculous mud I’ve seen come from the Norton camp over the past few weeks sealed it for me, however. And frankly, I just wanted to vote and get over with it. Regardless, I’m ready to rally behind the winner and support a huge improvement over the appointed Michael Bennet!
Prediction: Buck 52, Norton 48

Governor: Undervote No more needs to be said.
Prediction: McInnis 59, Maes 41

7th Congressional: Ryan Frazier If you follow this blog at all, you know I’ve been a proud Ryan Frazier supporter for several months now, and haven’t had any reason to change the decision to support our district’s strongest conservative candidate to take down Rep. Ed Perlmutter.
Prediction: Frazier 62, Sias 38

State Treasurer: J.J. Ament I like both of our Republican candidates. Either one would be a vast improvement over Cary Kennedy. A slight edge in qualifications, a well-run campaign and an endorsement from my trusted friend Dick Murphy made up my mind for me. Whoever pulls it off, though, the GOP needs to rally behind the winner. My gut tells me I’m not going with the victor on this one.
Prediction: Stapleton 55, Ament 45

No other competitive choices on my ballot. But I did want to make a couple other prognostications before August 10:

  1. Although I can’t vote for him, because he’s running in southwest Colorado’s Senate District 6, I support conservative Dean Boehler over Rep. Ellen Roberts. I also believe some observers will be surprised and shocked to see Boehler prevail by a healthy margin on August 10 with his well-received, insurgent grassroots campaign.
  2. I’m not a Democrat, so I can’t vote in their primary, but judging by his local domination in the yard sign war, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that liberal David Ruchman will topple moderate former Rep. Cheri Jahn by at least 5 points here in Senate District 20. Whoever he faces, my good friend John Odom looks ready for the showdown.

I don’t have sufficient information about other primary races going on to venture an intelligent guess. Besides, I’ve already stuck my neck out far enough.

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