Magellan: Good to be Colo. Republican Not Named Maes; Reset Election Odds

The reliable in-state Magellan Strategies polling firm today released the results of last week’s voter interviews on Colorado statewide races. Taking the pulse of 954 likely voters, they found not surprisingly that John Hickenlooper has a wide lead over Republican Dan Maes (and an even wider lead over third-party Tom Tancredo) — though some small amount of Hick’s support may have been eroded in the intervening few days before the latest Rasmussen poll was taken.

But I’m more interested in bringing attention to the down-ticket races, which Magellan features in its top line results, as follows:

  • Republican Attorney General John Suthers holds a commanding 47-32 lead over Democratic challenger Stan Garnett
  • Democratic State Treasurer Cary Kennedy trails GOP challenger Walker Stapleton by the modest margin of 42-38
  • Appointed Democratic Secretary of State Bernie Buescher lags behind Republican rival Scott Gessler, 37-31

As is typical with these lower-profile, down-ticket races, a healthy share of undecideds (especially among unaffiliated voters) remains. But it seems more than reasonable at this point to say it’s a good year to run as a Republican in Colorado–unless your name is Dan Maes.

But a key reason why I wanted to bring attention to the down-ticket races is because the first head-to-head public survey of these races further belies the accuracy of the so-called Big Lie, er, Line on a certain local Lefty blog. It may be time for them to wake from their slumbers and update their results. In the meantime, please enjoy my amateur (and more accurate) attempt at election oddsmaking:

Governor Line

(D) J. Hickenlooper (3-1): Living the charmed life when looming scandals should be weighing him down
(R) Dan Maes (15-1): Fear not, Colorado, your “Bike to Work” Day looks safe… very safe
(AC) T. Tancredo (50-1): Constitution Party just thrilled to be talked about… 20% of the vote and they’ll be in Nirvana, er, heaven

Senate Line

(R) Ken Buck (3-1): Being called “extreme” by the NY Times is a shining badge of honor in Colorado, don’t you know?
(D) Michael Bennet (7-1): Wearing Obama like a pair of cement shoes in the East River, and “nothing to show for it”

Treasurer Line

(R) W. Stapleton (4-1): All he has to do is mention 1,000 times that his opponent wants to “drive a stake in the heart of” your right to vote on tax hikes
(D) Cary Kennedy (6-1): Even with a pretty face, it’s a bad year to be an incumbent Democrat officeholder

Att. Gen. Line

(R) John Suthers (3-1): Has a tougher battle on his hands than originally anticipated, but the Health Care Choice issue works to his advantage
(D) Stan Garnett (8-1): Progress Now tries to stay relevant by helping the Boulder D.A. win statewide

S.O.S. Line

(R) Scott Gessler (4-1): In the best of years to run as a Republican, his smart campaign advertising affords him some positive momentum heading into November
(D) Bernie Buescher (6-1): Can we have the Ritter appointee explain again why it’s just so hard to send military ballots out on time?

CD-2 Line

(D) Jared Polis (2-1): A Democrat who fits his district well in a year that doesn’t bode well for his party
(R) Stephen Bailey (15-1): Yeah, he’s a longshot, but if you’re going to include CD-6…

CD-3 Line

(R) Scott Tipton (4-1): Good news for the state rep from Cortez — this isn’t 2006
(D) John Salazar (5-1): If you ignore teeny-tiny issues like his vote for Obama Care, you might be able to pretend that he’s not a Pelosi-style Democrat

CD-4 Line

(R) Cory Gardner (4-1): If you’re living in complete denial of the wave that’s coming and want to imagine him as the underdog, time to go back and play in the pixie dust
(D) Betsy Markey (9-1): One of the bigger questions remaining is how well she’ll wear the “one-term” label… time to bring out Dana Carvey as Bush 41

CD-7 Line

(D) Ed Perlmutter (4-1): Having drifted steadily Leftward since he took his seat in Congress, he’s beginning to find it’s a bad year to wear the label “Pelosi-mutter”
(R) Ryan Frazier (5-1): Joe Biden can tell you how hard it is to run against a “mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy”


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