On his Facebook page, just a few minutes ago J.J. Ament published a concession to Walker Stapleton in Colorado’s Republican state treasurer primary:

… would like to thank the countless volunteers across the state who made this a competitive race and I wish Walker all the best in defeating Cary Kennedy in November.

At this hour the Denver Post reports with 77 percent reporting that Walker Stapleton has a 50.7-49.2 lead over Ament. Not to toot my own horn, but I did predict that Stapleton would beat Ament 51-49. Hey, I had to nail one race right on, didn’t I?

Update: Video and photos added below the fold.

ARVADA — Victory was in the air before the party for Republican Colorado 7th Congressional candidate Ryan Frazier could really get underway. He even beat my conservative expectations. With 65 percent of precincts reporting, Frazier has a 65-35 lead and a declared victory over honorable second place contender Lang Sias.

I am working to upload the video of Frazier’s victory speech, but for now here are some transcribed quotes to whet your appetite. (You also can see the official statement on the Frazier website.) (more…)

We are on the eve of Colorado’s 2010 primary elections. A couple weeks ago I posted my preferences and prognostications. While my ballot choices haven’t changed (I filled them out in ink, after all), but I’d like to issue my complete, revised and final predictions. And yes, I see a lot of close races:

• U.S. Senate Democratic: Michael Bennet 51, Andrew Romanoff 49
• U.S. Senate GOP: Ken Buck 50+, Jane Norton 49+
• Governor GOP: Scott McInnis 51, Dan Maes 49
• Congressional District 3 GOP: Scott Tipton 59, Bob McConnell 41
• Congressional District 7 GOP: Ryan Frazier 58, Lang Sias 42
• State Treasurer GOP: Walker Stapleton 51, J.J. Ament 49
• State Senate District 6 GOP: Dean Boehler 53, Ellen Roberts 47
• State Senate District 20 Democratic: Dave Ruchman 54, Cheri Jahn 46

Now it’s time to wait for the results and see exactly how wrong I am.

Update, 8/9 AM: Rep Ellen Roberts’ response posted in full at the end of this post.

With election day practically here, a strange development has been unearthed in the Colorado Senate District 6 Republican primary between Rep. Ellen Roberts and conservative grassroots candidate Dean Boehler. Hopes of successfully resisting Obama Care mandates and advancing free market health care reform well may hinge in part on the result of this primary.

What do I mean? Well, first contrast the two candidates’ issue statements on the issue of health care, starting with Boehler:

OBAMACARE HEALTH MANDATE

Dean strongly supports Colorado’s lawsuit to declare ObamaCare UNCONSTITUTIONAL. Dean opposes ObamaCare and favors common sense, free-market solutions to lower the cost of health insurance.

Short, direct, pointed, and on target. Now look at Roberts’ statement: (more…)

For those who have been paying attention as much as having a half an eye open while trying to sleep, it’s no surprise to hear that virtually every conversation I’ve had in the past several days about the Colorado governor’s race (and it’s no small number) inevitable lands on the word “disaster.” Yes, disaster. Polling numbers bear out what intuition tells us.

We’ve got a Republican primary that will yield either the ethically tainted (but finally agreed to return the $300,000) Scott McInnis or the UN bicycle plot Dan Maes as the gubernatorial nominee. Thrown into the mix is the American Constitution Party’s wildcard Tom Tancredo, who certainly won’t get out while either McInnis or Maes remains in the fray.

Discussing the matter on Facebook — whether among those who have liked the Undervote in the GOP primary or not — I’ve joined others at the conclusion that the only chance to redeem the situation is to replace the primary winner (provided he agrees to step down) with a wealthy, credible candidate who can self-fund.

Two names that have made sense thus far are Marc Holtzman and Tom Wiens. Interestingly, Wiens tells Politico today that he is eyeing the race. All the right things are said by the right people in the story. Reading between the lines, I surmise that many parties are working together behind the scenes to push McInnis across next Tuesday’s primary finish line and rally support behind someone like Wiens.

Will it work? Who knows, but it’s a longshot worth considering at this point. (If Maes is the nominee, then never mind.) How Tom Tancredo might respond to such a move will go a long way toward determining whether this scenario — as I see it unfolding — has a reasonable chance at success. (And helps to bolster the chances of key down-ticket races like Secretary of State candidate Scott Gessler, who finally has an important, high-profile issue with which to go after the incumbent Democrat: disenfranchising military voters.)

Last week I was privileged with the opportunity to sit down and meet Dr. Michael Fallon, the Republican candidate for Colorado’s 1st Congressional District. For those in the know, that phrase typically evokes shrugs of apathy.

A Republican in the 1st CD? That covers the heart of Denver. The city has been represented by the tag team of Lefty Democratic icons Pat Schroeder and Diana DeGette for a combined 37 years. Republicans has held the office for a total of one two-year term since 1946. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, only 49 of 435 Congressional Districts are considered more heavily Democratic.

But don’t think for a moment that deters the 45-year-old Fallon.

“Diana DeGette is out of touch with the district,” the GOP candidate pointedly remarked at the Lakewood Starbucks where we met. There is some evidence out there to bolster his case and give shreds of hope. A Magellan Strategies survey performed two months ago among a representative sample of CD1 voters show the incumbent with unimpressive favorability and job approval ratings at 48 percent. DeGette’s voting record very closely mirrors Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s: 99.2 percent of the time, by the Washington Post‘s count.

Michael Fallon is on a mission, criss-crossing the district with a team of volunteers wearing their walking shoes. Focusing primarily on unaffiliated voters, who make up 30 percent of CD 1 (Democrats are more than 50 percent and Republicans less than 20 percent), he has carried his message of job growth, low taxes, spending discipline and transparency to thousands of doors so far. Fallon believes he can tap into angst among some fiscally conservative Democrats.

Denver’s Republican candidate for D.C.’s Capitol Hill also leans a bit on populist themes of what’s fair for the country should be fair for Congress — whether it’s social security or health insurance plans. “Congress has lost direction on both sides of the aisle,” Fallon observed of the fiscal recklessness emanating from the Beltway, willing to give his own party its fair share of the jabs. “Republicans started it, Democrats perfected it.” (more…)