On Thursday I updated the rankings of Colorado’s competitive state senate seats. After 15 weeks it’s also time to update the Colorado state house rankings.
A quick overview: There are 65 seats in the Colorado state house, and all of them are up for re-election every two years. State representatives are limited to four two-year terms of service. Currently, the Democratic majority holds 37 seats and Republicans 27, with one seat belonging to unaffiliated (and former Democrat) Kathleen Curry.
Fifty-two incumbents are running to retain their seats: 30 Democrats (including 2 vacancy appointments), 21 Republicans (including 2 vacancy appointments) and Curry. That leaves 7 open Democrat and 6 Republican seats.
Interestingly, Colorado Republicans are very close to running a 65-district strategy, as the GOP is fielding candidates everywhere except Boulder County’s House District 10. On the other hand, Democrats are competing in only 49 of 65 districts, conceding 16 races (including five with no incumbent) out of the gate by not fielding any candidates.
Given the dynamics shaping up through the end of April, I rate 30 of the 65 races as marginally competitive or better: 26 held by Democrats (21 incumbent, 5 open); 3 held by Republicans (2 incumbent, 1 open); and the unaffiliated seat. I have listed all 30 below in order that they are likely to switch party hands, but only include comment on the first 12.
As the spring finally dawns, it looks extremely narrowly like the GOP has just enough momentum to win a 33-31-1 majority heading into 2011. But plenty can happen between now and the time the final votes are cast in early November: (more…)