Mount Virtus

About 7 weeks ago I first laid the groundwork for the coming 2010 elections for the Colorado state house. Democrats hold a 37-27-1 edge (though essentially 38-27, since newly unaffiliated Rep. Kathleen Curry still sides more with the majority Democrats), which means Republicans need to switch six seats to capture control of the chamber. I have weighed each race according to the voter registration makeup, whether it’s an incumbent or open seat, reported fundraising and cash on hand as of the end of 2009, and other intangible candidate strengths.

Below I have ranked the races according to the likelihood that the seat will switch party control come November. With the caveat that a lot can change in the next few months based on new fundraising, caucus support and important announcements, here are what I currently see as the dozen most competitive 2010 Colorado state house races: (more…)

As fellow RMAer Don Johnson has noted, Republican 7th Congressional contender Ryan Frazier won a small but noteworthy victory by raising more money ($218,824) in the 4th quarter than incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter ($215,201).

More notable is that Frazier very nearly raised as much money just from individual contributors ($215,074) as Perlmutter did altogether. The incumbent Democrat brought in nearly half his take from PACs and political committees — including PACs belonging to corporations, trade groups, trial lawyers, labor unions and various liberal interest groups ($103,100 vs. $112,101 from individuals). Even with all the special interest heft that often comes with incumbency, Ed Perlmutter was narrowly outraised by Ryan Frazier.

Of course, GOP frontrunner Frazier still has plenty of ground to make up. Perlmutter has $1,045,319 on hand, compared to Frazier’s $280,355. It’s an uphill battle for the challenger, but the momentum is slowly starting to move in the right direction.

Demonstrating individual fundraising prowess, combined with a strong showing through the Republican primary process, should eventually open up more outside group donations to Frazier’s campaign. Meanwhile, though, people who live in Colorado are speaking more loudly with their pocketbooks to support Ryan Frazier than Ed Perlmutter.

The only other active Republican candidate to file a fourth quarter FEC report was Michael Deming, who raised $229 and has $341 on hand. According to the FEC website, Lang Sias, Jimmy Lakey and Mike Sheely had no reports to file.

This Sunday evening from 5 PM to 8 PM I will be guest co-hosting Backbone Radio on AM 710 KNUS with fellow bloggers Joshua Sharf and the Peoples Press Collective‘s Tom James (not only local bloggers, but Leadership Program of the Rockies Class of 2006 takes over).

With very few guests, it should be a good three hours of enlightening discussion and entertaining political banter. Go here to listen live.

I hope you enjoy one or more of the following:

• David Freddoso at the Washington Examiner points out that Senate Democrats very quickly have killed President Obama’s very modest “spending freeze” proposal before it barely had a chance to get going.
• Speaking of Obama, my PPC friends are licking their chops at the prospect of The One coming to Denver to stump for our appointed junior U.S. Senator Michael Bennet.
• Speaking of arrogance, guest writer Don Rodgers at Reclaim the Blue calls out Democrats in our state legislature for their hubris, after shoving through four of the Dirty Dozen tax bills on Wednesday (and are scheduled to hear the rest starting this morning) as a prelude to their dying political majority.
• Speaking of death, the New Ledger‘s Benjamin Kerstein gives Howard Zinn, the very recently deceased Marxist historian of A People’s History infamy, a harsh critique more grounded in reality than the one Zinn gave to the United States to manufacture his own career.
• Speaking of harshness — yes, as Lynn Bartels blogs for the Denver Post‘s The Spot, the Independence Institute is having its own “Biggest Loser” weight-loss competition — no, I’m participating in the “Biggest Gainer” competition instead.

Have a great Friday!

Update, 9:00 PM: They fixed it. That’s responsive, same-day government service for you!

First of all, I have to commend to you the Secretary of State’s work in creating the new TRACER campaign finance website, which is a more user-friendly, valuable tool than its predecessor. On the lighter side, while it’s imperative for candidates and committees filling out important disclosures to cross their t’s and dot their i’s, someone should have checked on TRACER’s main page to ensure the same level of accuracy: (more…)

Locked in a primary against grassroots candidate Bob McConnell, Colorado 3rd Congressional District candidate Scott Tipton touts an endorsement that could go a long way with many in the Tea Party movement: (more…)

A startling statistical development emerged last Friday, that you may have missed if you weren’t paying attention too closely. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that for the first time in U.S. history there are more union members working in government than working in the private sector.

I sat down yesterday for a 9-minute iVoices podcast conversation with Brian Johnson, executive director of the Alliance for Worker Freedom, to explore the effects of the changing labor movement on the fight for liberty and limited government. Follow the link here or click on the play button below to listen: (more…)

Update: I’m not a big fan of the tax credits and exemptions per se. Some represent better policy than others. I would love to see a legislator propose an amendment that one or more of the tax credit revocations be offset by a general reduction to make it revenue-neutral. But since the Democrats’ motivation with these “dirty dozen” bills is about scratching together more funds to help backfill the state budget, and not about creating a more equitable tax system with a minimal shared burden by businesses and consumers, I don’t see the idea going anywhere.

And that doesn’t even bring us to the whole legal question of whether some or all of these bills violate TABOR in the state constitution because they raise taxes without a vote of the people.

Most of the dirty dozen tax hikes will be heard today in committee, reports the Denver Post‘s Tim Hoover:

But [Democratic Sen. Moe] Keller said lawmakers already have cut a property-tax break for seniors, higher education, public schools, programs for the developmentally disabled and mentally ill, and Medicaid payments.

“They’ve all done their part,” Keller said. “The business community can take a hit, too.”

That’s my retiring state senator. Except what happens when tax exemptions are revoked: Is it just the “business community” that is hit?

On Monday, the commerce and industry association released the results of a survey that showed 72 percent of companies polled said they would halt or delay business expansions if four specific tax incentives were eliminated. Meanwhile, 55.2 percent of the companies said they would cut workers’ wages, and 50 percent said they would lay off workers if the tax breaks were eliminated.

All of which holds back economic growth, and cuts into future tax revenue. No one says there are easy answers for everyone involved. But aren’t there some other cost-cutting reforms Colorado can try first?

The article’s headline reads “Industries, lobbyists sour on proposals to curb Colo. tax breaks” — but I have a feeling the Democrats running the show at the State Capitol may hear fairly loudly from some regular small business owners and other taxpaying citizens, too.

Are you a political junkie who is planning to tune in to tonight’s State of the Union address (9 PM Eastern / 7 PM local)? Why not have more fun by making it interactive? This sounds like a potentially interesting opportunity:

For those on or off the same political page, they are invited to participate in the NRCC’s live chat via SMS during President Obama’s State of the Union address.

To participate, consumers can text either keyword, SOTU or STATE, to the short code 777218.

After opting-in, consumers receive a text message that reads: “Thank you for participating in NRCC’s State of the Union Text Chat. Look here on Wednesday 1/27 for the link to participate.”

Several hours before the State of the Union address, consumers will receive chat instructions via text message: “Voice your opinion! Send ur comments as a message to 777218. View America’s response at www.nrcc.mobi. Don’t forget to refresh/reload the page to view more msgs. Txt help for help.”

Let’s see if the Republicans can pull it off. Let’s see if they listen. Let’s see if they can mobilize people around the agenda of rolling back the growing Federal leviathan, not just “freezing” it. Whatever they do, let’s represent Colorado in force.

What do I think of Barack Obama’s so-called “spending freeze”? Imagine someone you know who’s in a little bit of debt increasing his household spending until he maxes out all his credit cards, then reassuring the bank that he’s going to stop increasing his spending rate for 3 years. Yeah, I guess it’s good that he’s not going to try to outlive his means any more than he already does. But then again, it doesn’t really address the problem, does it?

Check out this Red State diary for a more detailed and down-to-earth deconstruction. Or Al Maurer and the Cato Institute article he cites pointing out the true “smoke and mirrors” behind the “spending freeze” pronouncement.

Then I recommend you go over to Hot Air and vote in Ed Morrissey’s poll on how to respond to Obama’s proposal, and decide whether conservatives should “support it as a good start, demand more action” or “oppose it as a fraud, demand across the board freeze and cuts”. (Far better and more realistic than the other two choices, in my estimation.)

As uninspiring policy, Obama’s “spending freeze” isn’t much better than our own lame duck Colorado governor Bill Ritter’s 2007 “mill levy freeze”. And even though it’s a transparent and self-serving tactic, nevertheless here’s hoping that the “spending freeze” least is more faithfully applied than Ritter’s 2009 “hiring freeze”.

What is it with Democrat leaders and rhetorical “freezes” these days, anyway? Is it some subconscious ploy to hush the talk about the fraudulent science behind global warming hysteria? Or maybe we can take the whole temperature metaphor too far…

The dirty dozen tax hike bills scheduled to be rammed through Colorado’s Senate Finance Committee tomorrow? Legislative analysts released fiscal notes for 11 of the 12 bills this afternoon — they estimate a total net tax increase of $20.4 million for the rest of the current fiscal year (through June 30, 2010), and a total net tax increase of more than $337 million between now and the end of FY 2011-12.

While that wouldn’t solve all the legislators’ budget problems, passing the package of bills would shift a good share of the hard decision-making from the State Capitol to many a business and household in Colorado. And don’t even ask how it might lead to creating stable, private-sector jobs….

Word on the street is that the majority Democrats at the State Capitol are preparing to ram through a package of bills repealing tax breaks — not only without a vote of the people as the state constitution’s TABOR would require, but also pushed through the process quickly to minimize public scrutiny and apparent outrage. Taken together, House Bills 1189 through 1200 (look them up here) would end up increasing the tax burden on Colorado businesses and families.

Currently, the “dirty dozen” business tax hike bills are slated on the House calendar for a hearing on appropriations at 8:30 AM tomorrow (Wednesday). The first question then is whether the Democrats will then quickly rush the bills into the Finance Committee — where public testimony is required — to try and hold down the backlash. The second question is whether and how fiscal conservatives and various pro-liberty grassroots groups will be ready themselves to respond. It could set up an interesting showdown between Democrat legislators and a vocal share of the people they are supposed to represent.

Concerned business owners and other citizens who wish to clearly but respectfully share their opinions on one or more of these pieces of legislation may find contact information for the Colorado House of Representatives here. Members of the House Finance Committee are: (more…)

Update, 1/26: The correct answer is Mitch Daniels. Sadly, no one guessed the correct answer by 6:00 PM. “Why did I pick Daniels?” you might ask. At this point in the game, all I can say is: “Why not?”

John Hawkins at Right Wing News earlier today released the results of his conservative blogger survey “on which candidate they’d support if the 2012 Republican primaries were today.” Yours truly was one of 69 to cast a vote.

Sarah Palin won a 29 percent plurality in a crowded field of 12 candidates, while Mike Huckabee edged out Ron Paul for last place and 0 votes. The latter finding is especially interesting in light of the first poll to show a Republican candidate beating Barack Obama in a hypothetical 2012 general election matchup: Huckabee 45, Obama 44.

Of course, similar to some unnamed surveys, the Right Wing News polls are essentially “worthless” at predicting anything, but they are valuable in generating interest in political races and sparking conversations. Now it’s your turn to guess whom I voted for on the list of 12 candidates.

First person to correctly guess the answer in the comment section below (either Mount Virtus or PPC) before 6:00 PM MST on Tuesday, January 26, wins a free month of advertising on my sidebar (subject to basic decency standards) — of course, you have to leave an email address where I can reach you, a live person.

Last Thursday afternoon I testified before the House Education Committee at the State Capitol on House Bill 1036 and what effective public school financial transparency should look like. The best coverage came from the Colorado News Agency:

HB 1036, called the Public School Financial Transparency Act, contains many of the same provisions as last year’s all-GOP effort by Rep. Amy Stephens, R-Colorado Springs, and Sen. Ted Harvey, R- Highlands Ranch. That bill died on a party-line vote in the same committee. Stephens, who also is a co-sponsor on the new bill, and Harvey have reintroduced their bill again this year as Senate Bill 91, which they say would provide an easier way for people to search for and use data in a more meaningful way while including more descriptive characterizations of line items.

Stephens, however, said she would be happy to see HB 1036 pass to achieve increased transparency.

(more…)

Take a careful look at Friday’s detailed analysis by liberal Nate Silver. Then add in news that Democrat Beau Biden won’t run in Delaware and new data from Rasmussen showing conservative Mike Pence beating incumbent Evan Bayh in Indiana, and it sure looks like an eight-seat pickup is well within reach.

Of course, politics remains a fluid and fickle game. All could change. And if you really want to believe that former governors George Pataki and Tommy Thompson would run in New York and Wisconsin, respectively, then perhaps one can also imagine the GOP taking over the Senate. A pipe dream? Likely, and not one to get terribly excited about anyway. But just to be able to see such a potential result as anything but crazy has got to be demoralizing to the Obama White House.

And a very small reason to smile on a Monday morning.

Finally, as Don Johnson points out, Silver’s methodology gives Jane Norton a 73 percent chance, and Ken Buck a 53 percent chance, of beating Michael Bennet. Tom Wiens et al. were not included in his analysis.