Posted on January 29th, 2009 in Colorado Politics, Fiscal Policy, General, PPC | Written by Ben | No Comments »
Democrat pollsters are hedging their bets over the re-election chances of Colorado Governor Bill Ritter. The well known, respected local election analyst Floyd Ciruli says:
Although Bill Ritter works hard and cares about Colorado, he fails to inspire confidence among the most attentive publics. Of course, Colorado governors tend to be re-elected, and the Republicans are still on the defense after a half a decade of election losses, but Ritter faces a difficult re-election….
Ritter and his party know he is vulnerable. Expect a strong effort to survive. [emphasis added]
On the other hand, the Democrat survey firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) observes something different from its new survey results:
Overall Ritter is fine. He leads [Bob] Beauprez, who sounds like he’s more likely be a Senate candidate anyway, 48-38 among white voters and he has a 52-38 edge over [Tom] Tancredo with that demographic. Any Democrat in Colorado who wins the white vote is going to win a statewide contest in a walk. The displeasure some Hispanic voters are having with Ritter is what’s driving down his numbers a little bit this month but that trend seems likely to revert to normal with time. He’s still a strong favorite for reelection. [emphasis added]
Follow the link to PPP’s full survey results (PDF), and you find this statement:
â€œBill Ritter would probably be re-elected if the election was now,â€ said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. â€œBut, heâ€™s certainly not unbeatable, and it could be a competitive race next year with the right Republican candidate.â€ [emphasis added]
Let me explain – no, let me sum up. According to Democrat pollsters, their incumbent governor probably will win re-election because incumbents usually win, except that he has made it very difficult for himself and is highly vulnerable, though he is just fine and has nothing to worry about, unless you consider he really is beatable by the right Republican challenger, though he’d probably win if the election were today, except the election is about 641 days away, so….
I think what they mean to be telling us is: Let’s come up with a good, competent, articulate, fiscally conservative GOP candidate to challenge Ritter. Until then, they can’t tell us much.
Meanwhile, where do I sign up to become a highly-paid professional pollster?
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