The rumors look as though they indeed are true: Politico talks to former Congressman Bob Beauprez and learns that he is “leaning towards running” for the seat held by appointed U.S. Senator Michael Bennet.

Looking back at the 2006 debacle that was the campaign for governor, Swing State Project raises the serious, fair, and open-ended question of whether Beauprez is the man to beat Bennet. Senate Watch over at Rocky Mountain Right offers similarly subtle sentiments.

My initial reaction?

If Beauprez goes through with it, not only will Tom Wiens‘ entry be upstaged but also the current candidate in the field to lose the most momentum likely will be Ken Buck. Despite a phone booth-full of candidates now, by convention time next year we could be looking at the race shaking out into a two-way showdown between Beauprez and Ryan Frazier.

After the slightly disappointing fundraising numbers, Frazier needs to accelerate his momentum but should be less affected in doing so by Beauprez’s presence in the race, or lack thereof.

Where will Beauprez’s support come from? I think the analysis of our recent survey of 600 Colorado Right-leaning political activists provides some insights.