South Carolina Predictions

If Michael (picking McCain) and Steven (picking Huckabee) can do it, let me venture a stab-in-the-dark prediction at today’s South Carolina Republican primary results. Because, with Rasmussen seeing an extraordinary amount of uncertainty and the unusual weather apparently driving down turnout, this one is up in the air.

So without further ado, here is my prognostication:

Huckabee … 28
Thompson … 24
McCain … 22
Romney … 13
Paul … 7
Giuliani … 6

Such a finish would knock McCain down a couple notches and give Thompson the boost he needs heading into Super Tuesday as a viable competitor with Huckabee in the Southern states and with Giuliani & Romney in some of the other states (provided Rudy can win Florida, of course – but his chances would be bolstered with McCain beaten). My other related prediction is the results of the SC primary will further lower the credibility of Zogby as a reliable pollster.

We’ll see. You can check results here, starting at 7 PM Eastern (5 PM Mountain).


  1. says

    Ouch indeed! Chattering is abound that Fred is out… have you heard anything from the campaign?

    Florida is surely going to be a fun one to watch!

  2. says

    Fred is probably out … I haven’t heard anything official, there are conflicting reports, which can’t mean anything good.

    Huck’s days are numbered, too, barring an unforeseen miracle in Florida. Giuliani truly faces an all-or-nothing showing there.

    It looks like it’s down to McCain vs. Romney … Like it or not. But the one thing I’ve learned about this primary season is you can’t take much for granted.

  3. says

    Wut do y’all say ’bout the increasin’ly widespread prediction that it’ll be a McCain/Huckabee ticket?

    McCain: moderate Republicans, liberal Republicans, even some conservative Republicans, and Indeependents;

    Huckabee: the Evangelical part of the old Reagan coalishun.

    IOW, tho Reaganism may be ded ‘n gone, at leas’ the coaltion might be held together.

    Anything to beat the Dems, raht?

  4. says

    “the increasin’ly widespread prediction” …

    This is far from an inevitability, or even a consensus view … Mr. Romney still will have something to say … And then there’s a possibility of a brokered convention … No, I’ll withhold full comment on this possibility until later, but it certainly doesn’t enthuse me.

  5. says

    Thompson is out… Sorry to hear that about your candidate! He made a good run of it, and I was looking forward to more Thompson/Huckabee debates early on… he did a great job in keeping the race exciting!

    The good news for Huck is that he isn’t endorsing McCain… that may mean that he was not going to get the VP nod from McCain, so he wasn’t going to endorse… ??? … speculation of course…

    Now time to look at McCain/Huckabee or with a redistribution of Thompson votes, a Huckabee/Palin or Huckabee/McCain ticket???

    It could happen… especially since SC went to McCain because of Fred… so Huck could spin this development in his favor.

    Much to look at! Much to speculate over… but I don’t see it helping Mike in Florida, as he is not really staying in the race in that state, so I have heard… maybe that changes?

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