Florida Forecast

Based on my track record for predicting primary/caucus results this year, I don’t think anyone wants the jinx of being predicted a winner of today’s Florida primary. But here goes anyway:

Romney … 33%
McCain … 31%
Giuliani … 17%
Huckabee … 14%
Paul … 5%

Romney builds his delegate count lead, gains an edge in the momentum, and further coalesces the conservative coalition in his favor heading into Super Tuesday. McCain continues to lead in some of the February 5 primary states, but his advantage slips in many polls. Giuliani hangs around, but sees his supporters slip away more-or-less evenly to the two frontrunners. Huckabee can only count on picking up some spare Southern state delegates and hope to have a little sway at the convention. Some crazed Ron Paul supporters, after hearing rumors of a hanging chad in Broward County, flip out and start harassing election officials.

Hillary beats Obama, but by a smaller margin than anticipated.

February 6 will bring no relief, as the identity of the nominee for both parties remains unclear.

Michael at Best Destiny sees it a little differently.

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