Barack Obama really, really, really needs a bounce from the Democratic National Convention. First, nationally, as political guru Michael Barone points out:
Realclearpolitics.com yesterday had John McCain ahead of Barack Obama by 274 to 264 electoral votes, counting leaners. RCP has Obama carrying just two Bush ’04 states, Iowa and New Mexico, with 12 electoral votes. McCain’s lead in two other Bush ’04 states, Virginia and Colorado, with 20 electoral votes is microscopic, but then so is Obama’s lead in New Hampshire, with four electoral votes.
And Barack Obama needs a bounce in Colorado, too, as the latest Rasmussen survey reveals him in an incredibly tight race with Republican John McCain. However, Obama appears to be writing the How-Not-to-Win-Crucial-Swing-State-Colorado manual, closing the state’s busiest highway for his Thursday ego-fest.
This is the baseline to see what the Democratic National Convention does to sway public opinion in the race for the White House.