Mount Virtus

Two stories in today’s Washington Times (free log-in required) highlight fascinating potential trends in this year’s midterm election, one to cause concern for each political party’s leadership.

“Former Republicans Campaign as Democrats” shows upstart candidates in selected GOP-held districts are running to the right of the party incumbents, showing that uncontrolled government spending and uncontrolled immigration have harmed the party of Lincoln & Reagan. While the GOP has started to turn it around on these fronts, it will be interesting to see whether they acted in time and whether they will stay in shape starting in 2007. Otherwise, it will be a long and wasted road in the political wilderness.

My prediction for the House is that the Republicans preserve the majority by the slightest of margins after the Democrats gain 12 seats.

“Black Democrats Support Steele” shows the success that might be had by independent-minded Republicans running against the grain this year. Maryland’s Michael Steele might be making another huge step in wooing over a traditionally Democratic constituency. If African-Americans don’t come out to vote in huge numbers this year, and if Steele can win one-third of their vote in his quest for a Senate seat, Howard Dean may be looking for new ways to cope with indigestion.

I think the Democrats have squandered some momentum in their effort to win back the Senate and just don’t have the resources to keep up with the GOP’s strategic, last-minute push. Even so, they will make a net gain of 2 seats – which I predict will include an Election Night surprise that introduces America to Senator Steele, one of the few Republican gains on a night of opposition party success.

Thousands of Coloradans have already cast ballots through the early and absentee voting process. And a new 9NEWS poll shows that the voters are giving a thumbs-up to Amendment 43 (55-38), which would enshrine traditional marriage in the state constitution. At the same time, Referendum I’s “counterfeit marriage” scheme has dipped dangerously below the 50-percent mark (48-44). Support has slipped much more for the latter since initial polling was done.

A purely political explanation for the trend is the quality and extent of advertising. Opponents of Amendment 43 launched the lame ad with an actor portraying President Bush that never came around to give voters a real reason to oppose it. On the other hand, opponents of Referendum I have upgraded their arsenal recently with an ad highlighting the measure’s potentially costly fiscal effects, a smart move politically.

One week out from Election Day, my prediction for Amendment 43 is passage with 57 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, Referendum I has moved from “narrowly pass” to “too close to call.” I don’t see it getting more than 51 percent either for or against. At this moment, my other ballot measure predictions remain unchanged.

Other predictions? While it may be true that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Beauprez has an “unscientific” feeling about his own momentum, it just isn’t going to be enough. A lot of pundits and observers will be surprised at how close the final results are in this race – Bill Ritter by 4 or 5 points, I say. While Beauprez may not get his own campaign across the finish line, any help he gives to the GOP’s late Get Out The Vote effort will be crucial to other races.

Hence, a few other predictions to share in the final 7 days of Colorado’s campaign 2006: All the other Republican statewide nominees will win but by varying degrees. Attorney General John Suthers has the easiest time, netting 58 percent of the vote. Mike Coffman will become Secretary of State by a 54-to-46 margin. Mark Hillman will be able to drop the word “interim” from his resume to become the next treasurer, but the margin will be too close for comfort (51-49).

Democrats pick up a net gain of one seat in the state senate for a 19-16 edge, while Republicans find a ray of hope by gaining three seats and narrowly retaking the state house, 33-32.

Coming under fire recently, conservative Republican state senate candidate Mike Kopp has found himself engaged in a fierce political battle that wasn’t anticipated a few months ago. Senate District 22 in southern Jefferson County has a significant edge in Republican voter registration. But ever since the distinguished Army veteran and father of three edged out appointed incumbent Kiki Traylor in a tough primary vote, a race that should have been safely in the Republican column is now in play.

Smelling blood and hoping for an upset victory, Democrats set their big gun targets on Mike and have not let up, hoping to put their candidate Paula Noonan on top. Besides the usual bag of cheap dirty tactics (e.g., stealing campaign signs), pro-Noonan thugs have sent hate mail to Mike’s wife. Meanwhile, Noonan’s campaign exploited the school shooting tragedy in Bailey by sending out mailings that grossly distort Mike’s stance on the gun issue. Another mailing she sent out accuses Kopp of opposing “stem cell research,” without mentioning the important distinction of adult vs. embryonic.

Typical deceitful trash. (more…)

Baseball season is over. Time to move on to other things.

Have I been disappointed thus far by my Detroit Tigers‘ performance in the World Series? Yes. Now that they’re down 3-1 to St. Louis, have I given them up for dead? Certainly not.

This team has been counted out before, and it makes my day to see ESPN’s Gene Wojciechowski not only write off the Tigers’ chances as dead and buried but also spit on the fresh grave. Of course, Cardinals’ fans should be indignant, too, as his East Coast disdain for us flyover hicks shines through (nobody’s watching, because who could care without any teams from New York or Boston in the Fall Classic?):

To the tens of baseball fans who are watching the lowest-rated World Series in history, hang in there. It’s almost over.

Only nine innings and one more victory separate the St. Louis Cardinals from their first World Series championship since 1982 … and the Detroit Tigers from a long, painful offseason of watching Tom Emanski instructional fielding videos. And if the expected downpours take a breather, that championship could come as early as Friday evening.

Forget Polanco’s struggles. Forget “dirtgate.” Forget four fielding errors by pitchers. Forget playing Eckstein too shallow, or serving up a fat pitch to Albert Pujols. Forget the first four games.

Thanks for the bulletin board material, Mr. Wojciechowski. We’ll put it right next to the clips about the 1968 Tigers’ World Series comeback against the Cardinals.

We’ve got a long way to go, but the Series ain’t over yet.

It can never hurt to rehash and reprise the theme of hypocrisy in the MSM, especially some of our friends at the Denver Post. It almost looks like the Ritter campaign has contracted out its public relations services. Joshua has it spot on:

In the Denver Post’s case, they don’t llike whistleblowers who leak to Republican campaigns. Of course, they’re more than happy to report on the reaction of the Perlmutter campaign to a story planted by that campaign in the Post itself.

The Post ridicules Beauprez’s claim that his source is courageous, even as it campaigns for federal shield laws for journalists. It states that Beauprez’s source leaked for partisan political purposes, even as it defends the New York Times for publishing information that’s likely to get Americans killed, in pursuit of its own political agenda.

Yes, the Post wants Beauprez to lose that bad. Unfortunately, for too many days during this campaign, it has looked like the Beauprez campaign was aiding and abetting the Post‘s efforts. Don’t count on the final results looking like the latest polls, though.

You could say I’m tooting my own horn, but most importantly I wanted to share with you this piece about the ongoing struggles of Fort Collins parents Wayne Rutt and Paul Marrick against the local teachers union. Thanks to Edspresso’s Ryan Boots for running the piece.

Read the piece, then ask yourself a few questions:

1. Who really runs the schools?

2. How can that change?

3. What can and should I do about it?

Enough with Fox and ESPN’s contrived controversy about dirt on Kenny Rogers’ hand. He pitched a good game. Get over it, St. Louis. Bring on Game 3.

In the spirit of a Detroit Tigers team returning to the World Series for the first time since it was “Morning Again in America” and Stevie Wonder topped the charts, I just had to link back to this bit of childhood nostalgia. It’s 1984 all over again and time to “Bless You Boys.”

Restore the Roar once more. Wow!

My good friend Mr. Bob has a different take on Amendment 40 than I do on my ballot picks, which I invite you to read. I could respond to his four points, though, as follows:

1. Many current judges would be pushed out all at once, but the turnover would be less in future years. Some current judges have been there a long time.

2. Using the current retention and recall provisions as justification for a judge to continue on the bench is not persuasive. Who do you know who has a clear understanding of where to go to get insights into whether sitting judges should be retained or removed? The only source of information out there – Commissions on Judicial Performance – recommends that all 108 judges on the ballot this year ben retained and gives no reason why. Featuring them on the ballot at all almost seems a waste of time and resources. This lack of information is why I’m actually more fond of term limits for judges than of term limits for legislators.

3. He may be right with this point, but it is conjecture. It is what gave me the most hesitation in supporting it. I have to take the word of legal professionals on this matter. But it also assumes everything else remains status quo. Maybe there’s also a way to streamline procedures for the sake of efficiency.

4. Sadly, partisan politics already are in some of Colorado’s courtrooms. The debacle with this year’s immigration proposal is most fresh on the minds of many Coloradans, but others can’t be forgotten, such as the 2004 repeal of the state’s Opportunity Scholarship Program for disadvantaged kids.

For more details, also check out these arguments at “Limit the Judges.”

I am glad Mr. Bob took the time to respond and gave some thought to the question. My only wish is that we could have more debates like these before we cast votes on important matters on Election Day.

The Colorado Education Association, carrying the state’s largest anti-reform-in-education banner for years, has bestowed on me high honors. The new October-November 2006 edition of CEA Journal included yours truly, the proprietor of this blog, in a select group as “[one] of the most virulent *anti-public education individuals in the state.” Incidentally, this appeared in the same issue where union officials also endorsed an astonishing (gasp!) 73 Democrat candidates vs. 6 Republican candidates – oh so clearly not reflecting the political affiliations of their rank-and-file membership.

The badge of honor has now assumed a permanent place at the top of the page. I believe I now can say I’ve truly made my parents proud, and my life’s work has not been in vain.

* “anti-public education” = CEA code speak for anyone who disagrees with their agenda

Update: I scanned and uploaded the page in question as a PDF, so living proof is here. It’s easy to find … just go to the last paragraph in the far right column to view it for yourself.

At the request of some, I have decided to share how I am voting on this year’s ballot issues. Below you will find the ballot titles & designations, followed by a brief explanation of my vote and my opinion of the relative significance & likelihood of each to pass. For comparison, I’ve also added the stated endorsements of two Colorado conservative icons: influential talk radio host Mike Rosen and former state senate president John Andrews. After all, there can be some disagreement about certain issues within the movement.

Keep reading for my opinions and predictions… (more…)

Let’s face it: the State Board of Education is way off most people’s radar. Even some highly politically-tuned people who know the names of their state representative and state senator couldn’t tell you much about the Board, let alone the name of one person on it.

Nevertheless, the Rocky Mountain News issued its endorsements of State Board candidates today.

Well, here’s the quick skinny for the uninitiated: the State Board of Education has a variety of supervisory duties over the state’s public school system. A Board can do many things to support critical education reforms, such as charter schools and online education. Currently, the Board is made up of 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans – one from each Congressional District and an additional at-large seat that will be phased out in 2007. That means one party or the other will seize a majority.

The at-large seat is held by Democrat Jared Polis, and two of the three seats up for election this November are also held by Democrats. This means the Democrats have to win all three races to take over the Board and hand the keys over to their friends in the Education Establishment, such as the Colorado Education Association. One Democrat, Evie Hudak, is unopposed for re-election.

But the other two races drew the Rocky‘s attention today. Former Congressman Bob Schaffer, whose campaign cleverly is being run by school children, rightfully won the newspaper’s high praise (and his opponent gladly didn’t even get a mention):

Schaffer is a strong supporter of charter schools, and more generally of parental choice in education. He thinks schools are burdened by too much bureaucracy and too many mandates, and believes the state board should work with the legislature to identify those that can be eliminated or streamlined so more money will reach the classroom. We’re not sure how far he’ll get, but it’s a job worth tackling.

In our own 7th District, Republican Lee Kunz won high praise, yet the Rocky strangely couldn’t pull the trigger and endorse him:

In the 7th Congressional District, in a close call, we favor incumbent Democrat Karen Middleton, who was appointed to fill a vacancy in 2004, over Republican challenger Lee Kunz. This election is for the final two years of the term.

Kunz is a strong candidate in his own right, a teacher and coach for many years who is an advocate for more parental choice, early education and higher and more specific state standards. He described himself as “a huge fan of Core Knowledge,” a demanding curriculum that is popular with many parents.

There is, however, no compelling reason to dump Middleton, who also has a strong background in education.

No compelling reason? I guess that depends on your definition of compelling. I’m sure Karen is an upstanding person, but if the Rocky is to remain consistent with its support of various education reforms, there is no reason not to endorse Lee Kunz.

For me, it boils down to this: Karen’s votes overwhelmingly have not been supportive of charters, school choice, and parental rights. Lee’s votes will be much different.

The State Board of Education may have been off your political radar for a long time, but 2006 would be a good time to take note of the importance of these two races. Tell your friends in northern Colorado to vote for Bob Schaffer, and those in the metro Denver area’s 7th District to vote for Lee Kunz.

Even the center-left Denver Post editorial board can agree on this point: the proposal to put inflation-indexed minimum wage increases in the state constitution (sometimes known as Amendment 42) is a bad idea. Straight on.

Coming soon, for what it’s worth … my sample ballot on all the issues before Colorado.

This year, Colorado Republicans’ best chance at success will come at retaking the State House. Despite all the money of liberal 527s and rich guys being poured into the campaign, the off-presidential election year, Republican voter demographics, all 65 seats up for grabs, a strategy motivated by 2004′s humiliating defeat, and a reasonably good slate of candidates all add up to a good chance for the GOP to retake the State House.

Today the editors of the Rocky Mountain News endorsed their slate of State House candidates from the metro Denver area, including the following Republicans in currently held Democrat seats:

Aimee Rathburn (HD 1)

Ramey Johnson (HD 23)

Affie Ellis (HD 29)

Rex Pierce (HD 31)

Even counting the mistaken endorsement of Democrat Joe Rice in HD 38 to replace the outgoing Rep. Joe Stengel (Mr. Rice is a fine fellow, but his Republican opponent Matt Dunn has the better ideas to put the state on the right track), the News‘ endorsements would add up to a net Republican gain of 3 seats. If the rest of the state played out evenly, this would result in the GOP regaining majority status in the lower chamber.

Simply put, on a race-by-race basis, the Republican Party has more strong candidates than the Democrats to recommend them to a seat in the statehouse, regardless of the opinions of the Rocky Mountain News or any other media outlet. We just need to help get them across the finish line. Republican donors in Colorado looking for key races to fund down the stretch would do well to support the five candidates linked in this post.

The Detroit Tigers have dispatched the New York Yankees in the American League Division Series with a convincing 8-3 victory at Comerica Park today. Great pitching beats “the greatest lineup ever.” The $195 million Yankee nation payroll humbled by Motown’s finest. My friends, I am all smiles on this fine day.

Hats off to great Tiger pitching – Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, Jamie Walker, Todd Jones, and “The Gambler” Kenny Rogers. In the last 3 contests the pathetic pinstripes mounted only 6 runs compared to Detroit’s 18. Everyone in the lineup contributed to the series victory, but it seems fitting and proper to mention each one by name – Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Sean Casey, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez, Craig Monroe, Marcus Thames, and Brandon Inge. Finally, a big thank you to skipper Jim Leyland, who surely has quieted the skeptics now. He has given this team the correct focus.
The first playoff series triumph for my beloved but once-beleaguered franchise in 22 years! The celebration: How sweet it is … now bring on the Oakland A’s!