Mount Virtus

Check out my latest for School Reform News on an upcoming Colorado ballot proposal to define how much public education money is spent “in the classroom.” (Also known as the “65 percent plan”)

If nothing else, it may be an interesting read based on the number of colorful quotes I was able to cite for the story, like this one from Ken DeLay, executive director of the Colorado Association of School Boards:

“We don’t have administrators so they can sit in hot tubs and feather their nests.”

Or this little “exchange” between Deborah Fallin, the spokesperson for the Colorado Education Association, and Tim Mooney, the executive director of First Class Education:

“It’s about educating people about the measure,” said Fallin. “We are confident that when school employees and the public understand what this proposal will and will not do for schools and students, they will reject it for what it is–a funding gimmick which will do nothing to improve student achievement.”

Mooney disagreed.

“Ask any teacher if $8,000 more in her classroom is a gimmick,” Mooney said. “They say, ‘I’ll take two, please.’”

You could say, “Why bother to read it?”, having already seen the most colorful passages, but those who long for context, the full scoop, or the need to humor me should go check it out.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Marc Holtzman will be a featured speaker at an immigration reform rally, sponsored by Defend Colorado Now, on the west steps of the State Capitol.

Date: Thursday, April 27
Time: 11 AM

Check it out!

The only remaining question to see is whether the Denver Public Schools will dismiss kids for the rally and send buses to pick them up afterward, like they did at last week’s anti-reform parade.

There’s an interesting new Web site on the Colorado political scene – MaddenMess.com. No, it has nothing to do with Monday Night Football broadcasts.

If you want to sign an online petition to investigate a serious potential conflict of interest on the part of Colorado House Majority Leader Alice Madden (D – Boulder), however, then what are you waiting for? Accountability in government demands nothing less.

Oh, and have we mentioned “office accounts” lately?

The Denver Post‘s Dan Haley has one of the sharpest eyes on Colorado politics of any blog out there right now. Yesterday he scouted the 10 most significant state legislative races of the 2006 season – 5 each from the House and from the Senate – as the Republicans fight to regain majority status. (HT: Dead Governors)

Admittedly, Haley had to stretch to come up with 5 Senate races, as only 3 (and more likely 2) have a legitimate shot of changing hands: a potential pickup for the Dems in SD 11 in Colorado Springs and a potential pickup for the GOP in SD 21 in Jefferson County (the special election necessitated by Lakewood Democrat Sen. Deanna Hanna’s resignation following attempted extortion). You can make a case for my district – SD 20 (also in Jefferson County) – being a legitimate pickup. But the GOP got a late start here and has a formidable uphill challenge to face to get Dick Sargent to unseat Moe Keller.

On the House side, however, I think Haley truly overlooked one of Colorado’s most competitive and significant races for November: House District 29 in northern Jefferson County. One-term Democrat occupant Debbie Benefield beat incumbent Bob Briggs by 520 votes in 2004. This time around the Republicans have recruited a young and inspiring candidate named Affie Ellis. With a challenger of this caliber, Benefield will be hoping to win by as much as 50 votes this November.

A Native American woman with policy experience, a strong philosophy of limited government, and a well-articulated and positive message, Ellis is undoubtedly a rising star in the Colorado GOP. Her speech made a big splash at the Jefferson County Republican Assembly in early April. She announced her candidacy in February and within six weeks has reported raising more than $10,000 from a network of individuals in Colorado, her native Wyoming, and elsewhere. As of April 1, the Ellis campaign has more cash in the bank than her incumbent rival does.

The Daily Kos groupies already are trying to aim their big guns at her (but coming up blank). Watch out for the smear tactics, a sure sign the Dems are afraid of losing Benefield’s seat… and a sign that Affie must be doing something right. Right now, you have to put the race in the Tossup column.

Memo to Dan Haley: the race in HD 29 is one to keep an eye on.

I’m back at last … after some serious technical problems and an out-of-town jaunt for business purposes. When I woke up this morning to read that Republican Senator Arlen Specter has joined Democrat colleagues in a call for a “windfall profits” tax on oil companies, I realized it’s time to pour a barrel of cold water on the conversation. Gas prices indeed have soared. But is the problem price-gouging? Or perhaps could it be a matter of supply and demand?

I’m not a professional economist, so I am not able to offer an in-depth analysis here. However, I can tell you to read this piece from the Tax Foundation by Scott Hodge and Jonathan Williams. The piece was written last November when talk of a “windfall profits” tax started circulating around the Capitol. Here is the key passage:

Before rushing to create a new federal tax, lawmakers should ask two questions:

(1) Do oil companies currently pay too little in taxes compared to profits?
(2) What was the effect of the last windfall profits tax enacted in 1980?

The answer to the first question is that over the past 25 years, oil companies directly paid or remitted more than $2.2 trillion in taxes, after adjusting for inflation, to federal and state governments—including excise taxes, royalty payments and state and federal corporate income taxes. That amounts to more than three times what they earned in profits during the same period, according to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Department of Energy.

These figures do not include local property taxes, state sales and severance taxes and on-shore royalty payments.

The answer to the second question, according to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), is that the 1980s windfall profits tax depressed the domestic production and extraction industry and furthered our dependence on foreign sources of oil.

Look at the facts for yourself before falling over the cliff of hysteria. Let’s make sure our minds are fortified with logic to avoid the pratfalls of the Populist siren’s song. Fight the economic illiteracy and demagoguery. Let’s pursue a commonsense solution: the best thing we can do is remove some government controls. Less taxes and regulations would be nice.

Only two things are going to bring down the price of oil and consequently the price of gasoline at the pump: decrease demand and increase supply. If you can find a way to cut back your usage of fuel, now is the time to do so. Second, and quite simply, we could open up the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to very low-impact drilling. Low risks … high rewards. Preserve a pristine view for some caribou or take pressure off the budgets of hard-working American families? Ask your Senator whether (s)he has voted to open up ANWR or whether (s)he sides with the caribou.

It’s high praise to have Mike Rosen feature my work in his weekly Rocky Mountain News column. On that note, I think I’ll break for the weekend.

The latest reliable Rasmussen poll shows momentum is with the Marc Holtzman campaign. Back in February, Rasmussen showed these numbers in matchups between the sole Democrat candidate and his two Republican contenders:

Bill Ritter (D) – 40%
Bob Beauprez (R) – 33%

Bill Ritter (D) – 41%
Marc Holtzman (R) – 28%

The March results show positive movement for the Republicans, while Ritter is stuck standing still:

Bill Ritter (D) – 41%
Bob Beauprez (R) – 40%

Bill Ritter (D) – 41%
Marc Holtzman (R) – 36%

And Rasmussen concludes with this summary:

The rolling average of the last three Rasmussen Reports polls shows Ritter leading Beauprez by 3 percentage points, 40% to 37%. Ritter leads Holtzman in the three-poll average by five percentage points. These figures confirm the tightness of the race at this time. With seven months to go until Election Day and more roughly 20% of Colorado voters undecided, this looks to be a wide open campaign. [emphasis mine]

Beauprez has an insignificant two-point edge over Holtzman in head-to-head matchups with Bill Ritter – and this despite other polling information that shows many more Coloradans have yet to frame an opinion of Holtzman than of Beauprez. So what do these data suggest?

The overwhelming concern I hear among friends and others who support Beauprez is the question of electability. Consider the reliable Rasmussen poll as a piece of evidence to challenge that concern and show that a principled, hard-working Republican candidate with strong fundraising and a clear, positive message can and will keep the statehouse in the party’s hands come November. Marc Holtzman continues to upset the armchair pundits who dismissed his campaign and said it would be dead months ago. On the contrary, his campaign is still building momentum on its way to the State Assembly on May 20 and beyond.

Also in the news, you can tune in today to hear Marc Holtzman at 10:00 AM on the Amy Oliver Show (1310 KFKA in Greeley).

Cross posted at Holtzman v Beauprez

It’s my not-so-modest privilege to turn your attention to this news piece today. Thanks to Berny Morson of the Rocky Mountain News for a good and fair story. When you need a quote or a fact/statistic on a dry topic like school funding, now you know who you need to talk to. (No, smart alecks, I’m not referring to Rep. Angie Paccione.)

If Congress will listen to the people more than the magnified voices of left-wing and business interest groups, there may be a way toward a reasonable, workable immigration policy solution. From GOPUSA:

The U.S. government is not doing enough to curb illegal immigration, 81 percent of respondents said in a Time magazine poll published Monday.

The telephone poll of 1,004 U.S. adults conducted last week also showed 75 percent would deny illegal immigrants government services such as healthcare and food stamps, and 51 percent said children who are in the United States illegally shouldn’t be allowed to attend public schools.

Yet there was a less harsh attitude when it came to expulsions, with 78 percent favoring allowing citizenship for those who are already in the country if they have a job, speak English and pay taxes, the Time poll found.

Colorado’s center-right bloggers have been wrestling with the issue in search of the best solution – including BestDestiny’s Michael, Rossputin, and The Daily Blogster. And one candidate for governor – Marc Holtzman – has a strong and sensible plan to deal with illegal immigration at the state level.

Memo to Congress: listen up!

I just returned from the Jefferson County Republican Assembly, and have some interesting developments to report for the political insiders. The following candidates made it onto the primary ballot:

State Senate
SD 20 – Dick Sargent was recruited at the last minute to challenge Moe Keller.
SD 21 – Rep. Matt Knoedler announced his candidacy today and won the only spot on the ballot, beating out former Rep. Penn Pfiffner.
SD 22 – In a four-way race, only three candidates pursued a ballot spot through the Assembly. Mike Kopp was the only candidate to win a spot on the ballot. Justin Everett bypassed the process and will petition on. Rumors suggest that current Senator Kiki Traylor, who was appointed by a vacancy committee to replace retiring Senator Norma Anderson, will also seek to petition onto the ballot.

State House
HD 22 – In Knoedler’s absence, the decision to select a candidate was recessed.
HD 23 – Pat Holloway edged former Rep. Ramey Johnson for top line on the ballot in a contested primary.
HD 24 – Once again, no Republican challenger for Rep. Cheri Jahn.
HD 25 – Rep. Rob Witwer, appointed to fill his dad’s seat, won unanimous support to get on the ballot.
HD 26 – Glenn Rhoades will be the Republican candidate.
HD 27 – Rep. Bill Crane was selected by acclimation.
HD 28 – Rep. Jim Kerr fended off a challenge from Michael Rooney, who has announced his intention to petition onto the ballot.
HD 29 – Affie Ellis, her speech one of the Assembly’s highlights, will be the Republican candidate and will have a decent shot to unseat incumbent Rep. Debbie Benefield.

Jefferson County Offices
Clerk & Recorder – Pam Anderson
Treasurer – Current Clerk Faye Griffin edged her way onto the ballot for a primary challenge of incumbent Treasurer Mark Paschall; Griffin netted 220 votes, just above the 30% mark of 218
Sheriff – Ted Mink
Assessor – Jim Everson
Surveyor – Diana Askew
Coroner – Dr. Richard Dial

Just a little bit of an insider’s scoop….