This post will stick to the top until February 12. Please scroll down for newer postings.

Time flies, so here comes another edition of the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature. The deadline is next Friday, February 12, at 5:00 PM local Mountain time. What are you waiting for?

Click here to take the February survey

The February edition has even fewer issue statements, but introduces some interesting new items:

• Polling questions and head-to-head matchup on the 3rd Congressional race to challenge Rep. John Salazar
• Questions about your plans to participate in the upcoming caucus and assembly process
• Detailed question about your sources of local political news and information

Throughout the 2010 election year, the Survey of Colorado’s Political Temperature will re-appear the 1st Thursday of each month. So once you complete this survey, you can start counting down the days until the March edition is unveiled.

Check back here by Tuesday the 16th for February’s results. Meanwhile, here’s the official release announcing the new survey (as always, click fullscreen for a closer look): Read the rest of this entry »

Ever since Governor Bill Ritter signed the executive order laying out a welcome mat to unionize state government, I’ve wondered if and when the Colorado WINS labor organizing coalition would lobby for the Democratic majority in state government to entrench their status through legislation.

Given the state of the budget and the tons of political capital Democrats are spilling to push through their series of tax hikes — one of which is even opposed by Pueblo labor interests — prospects for comprehensive union legislation have faded dramatically.

But Colorado WINS has other means to extend its reach, and grow its dues-paying membership base, inside Colorado government. As Dave Ohmart of Colorado LOSES points out, reluctant state employees are being cajoled into joining in order to have “a voice in decisions about their work environment.” So states a complaint filed by Sgt. Jeff Hotchkiss of the Pueblo correctional facility. Is such activity in violation of the terms of Ritter’s executive order?

A Colorado LOSES survey shows that at best, state employees have a mixed opinion of WINS. And that while many didn’t “give a crap” back in the summer of 2008, many more seem ready to oust WINS of its exclusive bargaining rights. Stay tuned….

At this point, ramming through the Dirty Dozen tax hikes has Colorado Democrats in such political hot water, why not just go ahead and swim in it? That must be the reasoning behind the effort to make things even worse by changing the temporary tax hikes into permanent tax hikes.

It used to be about half the bills would eventually reduce the respective tax rates to their current level. Not anymore:

Republicans believe that Democrats are using the current budget crisis as an excuse to permanently raise taxes on Colorado families and businesses. “If the tax increases are only meant to help the state fill the budget gap, as Democrats claim, then why aren’t we making them all temporary?” asked Sen. Shawn Mitchell, R-Broomfield.

Then there’s HB 1193 in particular. As Rossputin points out, Colorado Democrats are going to drive Overstock.com’s affiliate program out of the state with this legislation. That is, unless they regain their senses first. As I noted before, HB 1193 passed the state house by the narrowest of margins (33-32), with Democrat Wes McKinley as the deciding vote.

Will the majority party in our state senate wise up, are they just simply Stuck on Stupid? Many of these bills will end up in conference committee, which will just increase the harsh glare of public scrutiny on the Democrats’ bad policy and terrible politics. Sayonara.

Another year has come and gone. Today Mount Virtus is 6 years old, which perhaps puts me in the ranks of Colorado’s political blogging ancients. I have a few graying hairs to show for it. My blog’s 6th birthday also means 99 years ago today one of our greatest Presidents — Ronald Reagan — was born. It’s also Waitangi Day in New Zealand. But that’s neither here nor there.

I’m not sure how exactly to headline the new Rasmussen poll on potential Colorado U.S. Senate race matchups. Three weeks ago I highlighted the fact that Jane Norton’s lead over the Appointed One Michael Bennet was widening, and that Bennet was dropping across the board against all potential Republican challengers.

The results this time aren’t altogether so clear. Yes, Jane Norton has an even greater 14-point advantage over Bennet, but her presumed 12-point lead over Bennet’s Democratic primary challenger Andrew Romanoff has slipped to 7 points.

GOP contender Tom Wiens — who just reported a hefty but heavily self-funded fourth quarter — may have leveled off. But he lost a little ground against both Bennet (6-point lead dropped to 4) and Romanoff (5-point lead dropped to 2).

Finally, however, defying the evidence of any potential polling trend, Ken Buck roughly kept the same lead over Bennet but pushed ahead of Romanoff — going from a 1-point to a 6-point advantage.

With this slight but sudden change of fortune, Weld County DA Buck is the only one of the three Republican contenders who performs better against the former Colorado speaker of the house. But for those expecting Michael Bennet’s big money and heavy-hitting endorsements to help him secure his party’s nomination over Andrew Romanoff, Jane Norton has all appearances of being the GOP’s strongest hope — even if the 14 points may be somewhat of a stretch.

Of course, you can challenge (or uphold) the conventional wisdom by letting us know your predictions on matchups for this and other major statewide and Congrssional races on our latest survey of Colorado’s political temperature.

On a related side note, Rossputin relates at length his positive impressions of Jane Norton from their recent in-person meeting.

Tonight (Friday) at 8:30 PM on Denver’s KBDI Channel 12, you can watch me make a guest appearance on Independent Thinking with host Jon Caldara. The topic? Jefferson County Public Schools’ new, front-of-the-pack financial transparency website. For more — including my podcast interview with fellow guest, Jeffco CFO Lorie Gillis, and my new paper on the topic of school financial transparency — please visit Ed Is Watching.

The lonely Friday crowd can make your popcorn in plenty of time for tonight’s 8:30 showing. For everyone else, get your TiVos/recorders ready or watch the episode re-air on Monday, 1:30 PM, on KBDI.

Within the past hour Colorado Senate Republicans have unveiled a sensible, taxpayer-friendly alternative to the Democrats’ efforts to ram through the “dirty dozen” tax hikes. From the press release:

Republicans in the Colorado Senate today unveiled a proposal to reduce government spending as an alternative to the Democrats’ plan to raise taxes on the businesses and citizens of Colorado.

“Democrats keep saying that in order to balance the budget ‘everything is on the table,’” said Sen. Kevin Lundberg, R-Berthoud. “Republicans want to make sure that a reduction in government spending is on the table and thoroughly debated before we raise taxes.”

The GOP proposal includes a 0.25 percent reduction in state payroll spending for the current fiscal year, and a 4.4 percent reduction for next fiscal year. If the state government made these small sacrifices it would eliminate the need for a laundry list of Democrat proposed taxes on everything from soda pop, to napkins, fertilizer and Internet sales. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the Democrat representatives who voted for 7 of the 8 tax increases that passed the state house Friday is state representative Cherylin Peniston (D-Adams County). Peniston voted for every one of the tax hikes except, strangely, the one on non-essential food containers.

To me, House District 35 is a darkhorse race to keep an eye on. Republican challenger Edgar Antillon faces the daunting odds of a district that is 46 percent Democratic to 22 percent Republican, but he’s looking to run a focused and energetic campaign to oust Peniston from office.

Antillon contacted me yesterday after the votes had been recorded to explain his basic philosophical distinction with the incumbent on these tax hike votes. He emphasized that the Ritter/Peniston approach would only increase the financial burden on the families and businesses in his district — especially with an already painful 7.5 percent unemployment rate. “A balanced budget means taxpayers first, not big government,” he said. (Jobs and fiscal responsibility are two of his leading issues, but I also like his views on education.) Read the rest of this entry »

Update, 2/5: Business Word dug deeper and found that Tom Wiens actually contributed all but $87,169 — a disappointing revelation that shows his earlier competitiveness may have been overstated, and further strengthens Jane Norton’s claims on the frontrunner position.

Fellow RMA blogs Rocky Mountain Right and Business Word both noted today that Tom Wiens led the pack in 4th quarter fundraising for Colorado’s Republican U.S. Senate primary at more than $725,000. Both were left to speculate how much came from contributions and how much was Wiens’ own money.

Well, this evening I received a release from the Wiens camp that begins as follows:

Republican U.S. Senate Candidate Tom Wiens filed his Year End FEC report yesterday with the Secretary of the Senate. After only two months as a candidate, his campaign reported total year end receipts of over $728,418, which included contributions of over $188,418 and a candidate-provided loan of $540,000.

“Scott Brown’s election in Massachusetts is a clear indication that voters will not have the establishment in Washington, D.C. tell them who their candidates will be,” said Wiens, “and I am honored by the grassroots support that I am receiving and excited by the energy that I see as I travel Colorado.

Now we know more of the specifics. It still isn’t good news for frontrunner Jane Norton, but it’s even worse news for Ken Buck — who disappointed with less than $40,000 in 4th quarter contributions. The question is how well Wiens can continue the fundraising trend without digging deeper into his own pockets.

But in any case, it’s game on for a Republican Senate primary.

Yes, the poll is from the McInnis think tank, but if this new Tarrance Group survey (PDF) is anywhere near accurate, it’s a dark day for the Colorado Democrats.

First, the 65 percent of Colorado voters who believe “that a recession is no time to raise taxes, and that government should reduce spending with a six percent ‘across the board’ cut to balance the budget” rather than “that taxes and fees should be raised on businesses in order to protect funding for key services like health care, education, and transportation” (chosen by only 25 percent of respondents) breaks down as follows: Read the rest of this entry »

That’s got to be how the Democratic trio of Governor Bill Ritter, Speaker Terrance Carroll, and House Finance Committee Chairman Joel Judd have to be feeling after knowing they accidentally turned one of their tax hike bills into a tax cut and therefore had to kill it. The majority party under the Golden Dome couldn’t let a pesky problem like that make it into the light of day.

You can’t make this stuff up, folks. Yet somehow it escaped even the watchful eye of the Denver Post’s “The Spot” blog. Oh, well….

Thanks to Americans for Limited Government, brings our attention to something you may have missed, namely a key vote in the U.S. Senate last Thursday:

It was also on this day that the Senate voted 60-39 to increase the national debt ceiling by another $1.9 trillion to $14.294 trillion.

It is the largest debt ceiling increase in U.S. history — in human history, in fact — totaling even more than the projected federal budget deficit for 2010, which CBO states will be an eye-popping $1.35 trillion….

The vote was straight down party lines, with Senate Democrats enabling the Barack Obama administration to continue the federal spending spree, putting my children and grandchildren deeper in debt. Yes, that means the Appointed One Michael Bennet on his 2010 U.S. Senate Farewell Tour, and Mark Udall — he of the “dirty politician filter.”

Another reminder for Colorado’s fiscal conservatives, limited government supporters and liberty lovers to get involved and support the GOP candidate who you believe best fulfills your values and can unseat Bennet. Let’s keep the momentum going.

A quick follow-up to my recent posting on the campaign reports from candidates in Colorado’s 7th Congressional District. Most notably, Republican frontrunner Ryan Frazier outraised incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter, despite the fact that Perlmutter gained nearly half his money from various special interest PACs.

For this distinction, The Hill rates Perlmutter as one of Congress’s fundraising losers, noting that Frazier’s “$219,000-to-$215,000 advantage in the fourth quarter was slight, but it serves as notice that a district that began as an afterthought could see a race.”

Meanwhile, Lang Sias has filed his report: He raised $30,914. To be fair, Sias wasn’t in the race for the entire October-December reporting period (his first contribution was received on November 2). Nearly half his contributions come from the Washington DC area — including $5,000 from John McCain’s Country First PAC and $1,000 from Joe (brother of John) McCain.

Update, 2/2: Americans for Tax Reform links back here. They have taken a real interest in “educating all those voting in the districts represented by the aforementioned lawmakers as to how they voted on this tax package during the 2010 campaign season.” ATR’s help is much appreciated.

Saturday I highlighted the Democratic House seats in the Colorado state legislature most vulnerable in the upcoming election. Today the House voted (with a 37-27-1 Democratic majority) to approve eight of the “dirty dozen” tax hike bills on: Direct mail (1189); Candy and soft drinks (1191); Software downloads (1192); Online sales (1193); “Non-essential” food containers (1194); Insecticides, pesticides and bull semen (1195); Alternative fuel vehicles (1196); Corporate net operating losses (1199).

When push comes to shove, I can give a pass on HB 1196. As for the other seven, it’s interesting to see which Democrats exhibited momentary symptoms of common sense and voted No … and which Democrats did not. Among those who voted Yes on every one of the tax increases: Read the rest of this entry »

Update, 2/2: It seems that HB 1198 in particular was too good — so good, Colorado’s legislative Democrats had to kill it. As Government Underground skillfully reports, the Democrats accidentally had a bill drafted that would repeal not only the AMT credit but the AMT itself, and thus are “not even competent enough to raise our taxes as they would like.” If it weren’t our tax dollars at stake, it would be downright hilarious.

I have tried to make the point before — if inartfully — that some of the “dirty dozen” tax hikes are worse policy than others. The fact they are being rammed through so quickly with so little deference to the concerns of large numbers of citizens showing up in protest has earned them all the “dirty” appellation.

But now, at last, we have a thoughtful analysis from the Tax Foundation’s Mark Robyn that carefully distinguishes nine of the bills: Bottom line? Seven are bad, two are good. Read the rest of this entry »

Last night on my guest co-hosting gig for Backbone Radio, we discussed not only the growing trend of government workers beginning to dominate the union movement.

But the subject also came up about the Obama administration’s efforts to backdoor the so-called Employee Free Choice Act (aka card check) through the appointment of SEIU lackey Craig Becker.

One advantage of this approach? Fellow Democrats in Congress like the indecisive appointed junior U.S. Senator Michael Bennet wouldn’t have to take an obvious position that either offends the Obama administration or the overwhelming number of Coloradans (and a majority of Colorado union members) opposed to this destructive proposal to re-write labor laws.

It would just add to the growing “backroom” Obama M.O. Michael Bennet then might want to consider writing the President a thank-you note — and while he’s at it, urge him not to make any more campaign visits after February. Then again, Bennet would have to vote on Craig Becker’s confirmation — so with the clear message of what Becker stands for, Bennet won’t be completely off the hook.

About 7 weeks ago I first laid the groundwork for the coming 2010 elections for the Colorado state house. Democrats hold a 37-27-1 edge (though essentially 38-27, since newly unaffiliated Rep. Kathleen Curry still sides more with the majority Democrats), which means Republicans need to switch six seats to capture control of the chamber. I have weighed each race according to the voter registration makeup, whether it’s an incumbent or open seat, reported fundraising and cash on hand as of the end of 2009, and other intangible candidate strengths.

Below I have ranked the races according to the likelihood that the seat will switch party control come November. With the caveat that a lot can change in the next few months based on new fundraising, caucus support and important announcements, here are what I currently see as the dozen most competitive 2010 Colorado state house races: Read the rest of this entry »

As fellow RMAer Don Johnson has noted, Republican 7th Congressional contender Ryan Frazier won a small but noteworthy victory by raising more money ($218,824) in the 4th quarter than incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter ($215,201).

More notable is that Frazier very nearly raised as much money just from individual contributors ($215,074) as Perlmutter did altogether. The incumbent Democrat brought in nearly half his take from PACs and political committees — including PACs belonging to corporations, trade groups, trial lawyers, labor unions and various liberal interest groups ($103,100 vs. $112,101 from individuals). Even with all the special interest heft that often comes with incumbency, Ed Perlmutter was narrowly outraised by Ryan Frazier.

Of course, GOP frontrunner Frazier still has plenty of ground to make up. Perlmutter has $1,045,319 on hand, compared to Frazier’s $280,355. It’s an uphill battle for the challenger, but the momentum is slowly starting to move in the right direction.

Demonstrating individual fundraising prowess, combined with a strong showing through the Republican primary process, should eventually open up more outside group donations to Frazier’s campaign. Meanwhile, though, people who live in Colorado are speaking more loudly with their pocketbooks to support Ryan Frazier than Ed Perlmutter.

The only other active Republican candidate to file a fourth quarter FEC report was Michael Deming, who raised $229 and has $341 on hand. According to the FEC website, Lang Sias, Jimmy Lakey and Mike Sheely had no reports to file.

This Sunday evening from 5 PM to 8 PM I will be guest co-hosting Backbone Radio on AM 710 KNUS with fellow bloggers Joshua Sharf and the Peoples Press Collective’s Tom James (not only local bloggers, but Leadership Program of the Rockies Class of 2006 takes over).

With very few guests, it should be a good three hours of enlightening discussion and entertaining political banter. Go here to listen live.

I hope you enjoy one or more of the following:

• David Freddoso at the Washington Examiner points out that Senate Democrats very quickly have killed President Obama’s very modest “spending freeze” proposal before it barely had a chance to get going.
• Speaking of Obama, my PPC friends are licking their chops at the prospect of The One coming to Denver to stump for our appointed junior U.S. Senator Michael Bennet.
• Speaking of arrogance, guest writer Don Rodgers at Reclaim the Blue calls out Democrats in our state legislature for their hubris, after shoving through four of the Dirty Dozen tax bills on Wednesday (and are scheduled to hear the rest starting this morning) as a prelude to their dying political majority.
• Speaking of death, the New Ledger’s Benjamin Kerstein gives Howard Zinn, the very recently deceased Marxist historian of A People’s History infamy, a harsh critique more grounded in reality than the one Zinn gave to the United States to manufacture his own career.
• Speaking of harshness — yes, as Lynn Bartels blogs for the Denver Post’s The Spot, the Independence Institute is having its own “Biggest Loser” weight-loss competition — no, I’m participating in the “Biggest Gainer” competition instead.

Have a great Friday!